Prep2Prep CCS Boys Soccer Playoff Projections
FINAL PROJECTIONS (UPDATED 2/21/15)
NOTE: we will continue to update point totals as warranted, but these are the final projections based on all the results we have accumulated through the regular season.
Here are the updated CCS Boys Soccer Playoff Projections based on the latest information available to us through the games of February 20.
Obviously, we
are at the mercy of the accuracy of our schedules. We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams
that compete in the Central Coast Section. These projections are based on our
best available information; if you would like to correct a team's result, please contact Prep2Prep
via our Contact Us page or tweet us @Prep2PrepSports.
You can also leave comments on our Facebook page.
For the formula used to calculate CCS points, please click
here. Keep in mind that only a team's final 18 games count
toward CCS point-total calculations. Also, a team must have at least a .500 record in league or overall to be considered. Higher-seeded teams host
in the first round except in the case when the lower-seeded team is a division champion and the higher-seeded team is not.
In the first round, teams from the same league cannot face each other, so seedings are adjusted to
avoid such matchups. Also first- and second-place teams from the same league cannot be placed in the same side of the bracket so we avoid those
situations as well.
Here is a league by league breakdown of who's in and who's out:
BVAL-MH
IN (5): Mt. Pleasant, Branham, Evergreen Valley, Willow Glen, Leigh
OUT (1): Andrew Hill
COMMENT: As it turned out, Andrew Hill will not fall agonizingly short of the last playoff spot because of what transpired in the PAL-Bay. With South San Francisco
claiming the third automatic bid and Carlmont becoming CCS eligible, the Falcons will fall well short of the cutoff, which we have projected at 41.5 points.
BVAL-ST
IN (2): Leland, Santa Teresa
COMMENT: Leland and Santa Teresa were never seriously threatened in the BVAL-ST and none of the other teams will have nearly enough points to qualify as an at-large.
BVAL-WV
IN (1): Pioneer
COMMENT: With a win over San Jose and the tie between Piedmont Hills and Independence, Pioneer clinched the BVAL-WV title and the automatic berth to the CCS playoffs.
MBL-Gabilan
IN (3): Watsonville, Alvarez, Alisal
COMMENT: Remarkably enough, only the top 3 finishers - and automatic recipients of CCS playoff berths - were even eligible for the playoffs in the MBL-Gabilan.
MBL-Pacific
IN (1): Pajaro Valley
COMMENT: Pajaro Valley ran away with the MBL-Pacific and no other teams in this division have nearly enough points to qualify as an at-large. The interesting twist with
Carlmont qualifying is that it will bump Gunn to Division II, which in turn should bump Pajaro Valley to Division III as the No. 1 seed.
MTAL
IN (3): Soledad, Greenfield, King City
COMMENT: King City had no trouble with Pacific Collegiate in the playoff to wrap up the third and final automatic bid from the MTAL.
PAL-Bay
IN (5): Menlo-Atherton, Burlingame, South San Francisco, Sequoia, Carlmont
COMMENT: From a league standpoint, the final day worked out perfectly as all five teams should now get in. Carlmont, in particular, had to beat Sequoia to meet
the .500 requirement.
PAL-Ocean
IN (1): Hillsdale
OUT (1): Aragon
COMMENT: As it played out, even an Aragon win over Hillsdale would not have been enough to get the Dons into the playoffs.
PSAL
IN (1): KIPP Collegiate
COMMENT: KIPP Collegiate came through with a 1-0 win over Latino Prep to earn the automatic bid from the PSAL. KIPP won both the regular-season title and postseason tournament,
which is used to determine the automatic berth.
SCCAL
IN (2): Santa Cruz, Scotts Valley
OUT (2): Soquel, Harbor
COMMENT: Scotts Valley's win over San Lorenzo Valley earned the Falcons the second automatic bid from the SCCAL and eliminated Harbor in the process. By our numbers, Soquel is going
to wind up as the first team out of the field with 39 points, 2.5 behind Willow Glen and Sequoia.
SCVAL-DA
IN (6): Palo Alto, Homestead, Mountain View, Santa Clara, Los Gatos, Monta Vista
COMMENT: Apologies to Monta Vista fans for leaving them on the edge, but our calculation ignored the Matadors' win over Sunnyside, which was worth an additional 5.5 points and easily
puts them into the field. A brilliant 6-1-1 preseason has put Monta Vista in this position despite finishing 1-6-5 in league play.
SCVAL-EC
IN (1): Gunn
COMMENT: Fremont was essentially eliminated with the loss to Gunn last Thursday. The Firebirds were very strong in SCVAL-EC play, but will rue a 0-5-2 record during the preseason.
WBAL
IN (2): Sacred Heart Prep, The King's Academy
OUT (1): Menlo
COMMENT: Sacred Heart Prep's 0-0 draw with Harker coupled with a 2-0 win by King's Academy over Menlo meant that SHP and King's wound up tied for first place. SHP wins the tiebreaker
for bookkeeping purposes but both teams earn automatic bids into CCS.
WCAL
IN (6): Bellarmine, Sacred Heart Cathedral, St. Ignatius, Mitty, St. Francis, Valley Christian
COMMENT: Valley Christian nailed down a spot with a win over Bellarmine on Wednesday.
A few assumptions:
ASSUMPTION 1: points are calculated on the assumption that an individual team will lose the rest of its games. The bonus points for playing
a league champion are included in the calculation. In other words, the point total you see represents the minimum point total for a given
team as of today.
ASSUMPTION 2: in calculating points awarded for playing league champions, points were split according to the number of teams currently
tied for first place. For instance, per CCS rules, teams are awarded bonus points for playing a league champion; if a team played a team
that is currently in a three-way tie for first, we credit the team one-third of the points. If two teams at the top of a league have not played the
same number of games, we assume league champ based on points per game.
ASSUMPTION 3: for out-of-section teams that we were unable to find accurate records, we assumed them to be "B" teams and not division champs.
ASSUMPTION 4: teams will apply for CCS and we will use league bylaws to determine order of finish as applicable. For instance if two at-large
teams apply for CCS from the same league, some league's bylaws mandate that the team that finished higher in the league standings must get in
first whereas other leagues rank at-large teams based on CCS points. We are assuming no teams will pull out of consideration.
NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.
DIVISION I: Thirty-nine teams qualify for the CCS playoffs, with the top 13 schools by enrollment placed in Division I.
Lowest enrollment schools: Watsonville (1,923), Santa Clara (1,913)
Carlmont's win over Sequoia will create a domino effect in the seedings. By forcing their way into the Division I field, the Scots bumped Gunn
to Division II, which in turn moved Pajaro Valley into Division III. With Carlmont in and South San Francisco capturing the third automatic
bid from the PAL-Bay Division, Sequoia gets in as an at-large instead of an auto qualifier.
Another interesting development is that according to our calculations, Menlo-Atherton will edge Watsonville for the No. 1 seed. The two teams
are tieda at 61.5 points, but the Bears will win the tiebreaker based on total bonus points. That in turn forces Alvarez down to the No. 8
spot. Santa Clara drops down to No. 12 to avoid a matchup with league mate Homestead in the first round.
DIVISION II: After the 13 teams with the highest enrollment are placed in Division I, the next 13 teams by enrollment are
placed in Division II, which is expected to be an extremely strong bracket once again in 2015.
Highest enrollment schools: Gunn (1,900), Los Gatos (1,875)
Lowest enrollment schools: Mt. Pleasant (1,372), Valley Christian (1,457)
Branham cannot be in the same half bracket as Mt. Pleasant, so the Bruins drop from No. 5 to No. 6. We have Los Gatos and Leigh tied at 42 points,
but Los Gatos beat the Longhorns head to head so the Wildcats get the No. 9 seed. Willow Glen and Mountain View are also tied on
points but that doesn't matter because Willow Glen cannot face Branham in the first round anyway.
Also with Gunn dropping down to Division II, that created a tie with Leland for the No. 2 seed. However, Leland defeated Gunn, so the Chargers
should nab the No. 2 seed.
If the brackets drop like this, there will be two rematches in the first round: Mountain View defeated Branham, 1-0 December 31 and Mitty and Willow Glen played to
a 1-1 tie December 20.
DIVISION III: Finally, the remaining 13 teams as ranked by enrollment are placed in Division III.
Highest enrollment schools: Pajaro Valley (1,449), South San Francisco (1,405)
Pajaro Valley dropping into Division III moves Sacred Heart Cathedral down to No. 2. The bottom seeds in the bracket had to be re-shuffled to
avoid top two teams from the same league winding up on the same side of the bracket.
As mentioned earlier, there are a total of 11 at-large teams included in the complete field of 39 CCS playoff teams. Here's a brief look at
the last five teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out if the season ended now.
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