P2P Softball CCS Playoff Projections

Based on the latest information presented to Prep2Prep through games of May 11 - the final day of the regular season - we are releasing our projections for the 2019 Central Coast Section softball playoff tournaments. We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams that compete in the Central Coast Section, but it is possible that there are slight schedule variations for some teams.

UPDATE: We had a couple of divisions mis-classified as "B" leagues. This did not result in any changes in the field, but had a profound impact on the seedings, particularly in Division 2.

The 5 "A" league champions plus the next three highest point-total getters will comprise an eight-team elite playoff field. The other 32 teams in the playoff field will be split according to enrollment with the top 16 in Division I and the rest of the teams in Division II.

Nothing has changed with regard to the automatic qualifiers, of which there are 29 spread out over the leagues as follows: BVAL (6), PAL (4), PCAL (7), PSAL (1), SCCAL (2), SCVAL (4), WBAL (3), WCAL (2).

The remaining 11 at-large teams are selected based on a point system that awards teams based on results over the entire season, including non-league play. To be considered for an at-large berth, teams must have at least a .500 record in either league play or overall. An average number of points per game is calculated based on the number of total games played, or 17 if a team played fewer than 17 games.

For this projection, we look at all the playoff contenders based on their chances of advancing to the playoffs.

BVAL-Mount Hamilton

LOCKS (4): Santa Teresa, Silver Creek, Branham, Pioneer

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (1): Ann Sobrato

OUT (3): Leigh, Oak Grove, Leland

COMMENT: Branham beat out Pioneer for the third automatic bid behind Santa Teresa and Silver Creek. Pioneer is easily in the field, however, with Ann Sobrato the last team in the field in this projection.

BVAL-Santa Teresa

LOCKS (2): Live Oak, Piedmont Hills

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (6): Evergreen Valley, Prospect, Westmont, Willow Glen, Gunderson, Overfelt

COMMENT: Live Oak and Piedmont Hills have clinched the two automatic spots and none of the other teams will have enough points for an at-large berth.

BVAL-West Valley

LOCKS (1): Lincoln

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (7): Andrew Hill, Independence, Del Mar, Yerba Buena, Mt. Pleasant, James Lick, San Jose

COMMENT: Lincoln has clinched the league title and lone bid from this division.

PAL-Bay

LOCKS (5): Carlmont, Aragon, San Mateo, Hillsdale, Burlingame

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (3): Woodside, Capuchino, Half Moon Bay

COMMENT: The league gets three automatic bids, but fourth-place Hillsdale and fifth-place Burlingame will have no trouble getting in.

PAL-Ocean

LOCKS (1): Mills

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (6): South San Francisco, El Camino, Sequoia, Terra Nova, Menlo-Atherton, Jefferson

COMMENT: Mills finished as undefeated league champ and will get the league's only automatic bid.

PCAL-Gabilan

LOCKS (5): Notre Dame-Salinas, Watsonville, San Benito, Gilroy, Salinas

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (2): Christopher, Santa Catalina

COMMENT: Salinas will not be an automatic qualifier but should have enough points to get in.

PCAL-Mission

LOCKS (3): Carmel, Alvarez, North Salinas

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (3): Pacific Grove, Monterey, North Monterey County

COMMENT: Carmel captured the lone automatic bid by winning the league championship. Alvarez and North Salinas beat Gonzales and St. Francis SCP, respectively, in one-game playoffs to join the CCS field.

PCAL-Cypress

LOCKS (1): St. Francis SCP

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (5): Monte Vista Christian, Stevenson, Alisal, Soledad, Seaside

COMMENT:St. Francis SCP lost to North Salinas in the one-game playoff, but should have enough points to qualify as an at-large team.

PCAL-Santa Lucia

LOCKS (0): None

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (7): Gonzales, King City, Trinity Christian, Greenfield, Marina, Pajaro Valley, Anzar

COMMENT: Gonzales lost to Alvarez in a one-game playoff for a CCS playoff spot.

PSAL

LOCKS (1): Pacific Bay Christian

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0):

OUT (4): Latino College Prep, Summit Shasta, KIPP SJ Collegiate, DCP-Alum Rock

COMMENT: Pacific Bay Christian defeated Latino College Prep this week for the PSAL title and lone bid from this league.

SCCAL

LOCKS (2): San Lorenzo Valley, Aptos

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (1): Soquel

OUT (3): Scotts Valley, Harbor, Santa Cruz

COMMENT: San Lorenzo Valley and Aptos have locked up the automatic berths and Soquel is right on the bubble as one of the first teams out right now.

SCVAL-De Anza

LOCKS (3): Mountain View, Los Gatos, Los Altos

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (1): Milpitas

OUT (3): Homestead, Wilcox, Santa Clara

COMMENT: Mountain View and Los Gatos have locked up two of the three automatic bids. Homestead lost its final three games of the season to drop out of CCS contention. Milpitas is on the bubble and one of the final teams in at this point.

SCVAL-El Camino

LOCKS (2): Fremont, Gunn

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (1): Cupertino

OUT (4): Palo Alto, Saratoga, Monta Vista, Lynbroook

COMMENT: Fremont clinched the automatic berth and Gunn is a complete lock based on its point total. Cupertino is right on the bubble and one of the first teams out in this projection.

WBAL

LOCKS (3): Mercy Burlingame, The King's Academy, Notre Dame-Belmont

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (5): Harker, Pinewood, Crystal Springs Uplands, Mercy San Francisco, Notre Dame-San Jose

COMMENT: The top three teams have sealed the automatic bids.

WCAL

LOCKS (4): Saint Francis, Presentation, Valley Christian, Archbishop Mitty

NEAR LOCKS (0): None

BUBBLE (0): None

OUT (2): Saint Ignatius, Sacred Heart Cathedral

COMMENT: Saint Francis won the regular-season and tournament title. The other three teams are locks and could all find themselves in the Open.

Leagues within CCS are designated as "A" (highest), "B" and "C". Wins against "A" teams count for 3 points; wins against "B" teams count for 2.5; and wins against "C" teams count for 2. Strip off one point from those totals in cases of ties, and two points for losses to respectively designed "A", "B" and "C" teams. Teams outside of CCS are considered "B" teams.

Finally, teams are awarded 2 points for playing an "A" league champion, 1.5 points for playing a "B" league champion and 1 point for playing a "C" league champion. Teams also receive 5 points for being an "A" league champion, 4 for being a "B" league champion and 3 for being a "C" league champion.

We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams that compete in the Central Coast Section, but it is possible that there are slight schedule variations for some teams. These projections are based on our best available information; if you would like to correct a team's result, please contact Prep2Prep via email or tweet us @Prep2PrepSports. You can also leave comments on our Facebook page.

For more details on the CCS point system, please click here.

Because the season is not quite over, we must make a few assumptions:

ASSUMPTION 1: points are calculated on the assumption that an individual team will lose the rest of its games. The bonus points for playing a league champion are included in the calculation. In other words, the point total you see represents the minimum point total for a given team, based on the total number of games the team will play for the entire season.

ASSUMPTION 2: in calculating points awarded for playing league champions, points were split according to the number of teams currently tied for first place. For instance, per CCS rules, teams are awarded one point for playing a league champion; if a team played a team that is currently in a three-way tie for first, we credit the team 0.33 points. If two teams at the top of a league have not played the same number of games, we assume league champ based on points per game.

ASSUMPTION 3: in the first round, league mates are not matched up whenever possible as per CCS rules.

ASSUMPTION 4: some leagues hold a postseason tournament to fill out their allotment of automatic qualifiers. In those instances, we assumed the team(s) with the highest CCS point totals will receive the automatic bid.

NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.

OPEN DIVISION: The "A" league champs are: Silver Creek (BVAL-Mount Hamilton - tiebreaker over Santa Teresa), Carlmont (PAL-Bay), Notre Dame-Salinas (PCAL-Gabilan), Mountain View (SCVAL-De Anza) and Saint Francis (WCAL) and the at-large berths belong to Presentation (2.88 CCS points), Archbishop Mitty (2.80) and Santa Teresa (2.69).

St. Francis is a virtual lock for a CCS Open Division berth. (Hanson Ma/Prep2Prep)

DIVISION I: After the eight top teams are placed in the Open, the 16 teams with the highest enrollment are placed in Division I with the remaining 16 teams placed in Division II.

Lowest enrollment schools: Gilroy (1,698) and Aragon (1,695).

We moved Fremont down a spot to avoid a first-round matchup against league rival Gunn. We also moved Milpitas down a spot to avoid a first-round matchup against Los Gatos.

Homestead would host Branham in a Division I first-round matchup. (Hanson Ma/Prep2Prep)

(1) WATSONVILLE (2.63)
(16) Lincoln (1.67)
(8) GUNN (2.16)
(9) Salinas (2.07)
(5) SAN BENITO (2.38)
(12) Los Altos (2.02)
(4) LOS GATOS (2.48)
(13) Alvarez (1.94)
(6) GILROY (2.22)
(11) Piedmont Hills (2.05)
(3) ARAGON (2.52)
(14) Milpitas (2.00)
(7) BRANHAM (2.17)
(10) Fremont (2.14)
(2) SAN MATEO (2.58)
(15) North Salinas (1.92)

DIVISION II: Finally, the remaining 16 teams as ranked by enrollment are placed in Division II.

Highest enrollment schools: Valley Christian (1,621) and Pioneer (1,600).

We moved Ann Sobrato down a spot to avoid a first-round matchup against league rival Pioneer.

Menlo is projected as the No. 2 seed in Division II. (Menlo Athletics)

(1) CARMEL (2.46)
(16) Pacific Bay Christian (1.50)
(8) ST. FRANCIS SCP (2.02)
(9) Aptos (1.95)
(5) PIONEER (2.18)
(12) Notre Dame-Belmont (1.77)
(4) SAN LORENZO VALLEY (2.25)
(13) Ann Sobrato (1.86)
(6) LIVE OAK (2.08)
(11) Monte Vista Christian (1.88)
(3) HILLSDALE (2.43)
(14) The King's Academy (1.63)
(7) BURLINGAME (2.07)
(10) Mills (1.95)
(2) VALLEY CHRISTIAN (2.44)
(15) Mercy Burlingame (1.60)

As mentioned earlier, there are a total of 11 at-large teams included in the complete field of 40 CCS playoff teams. Here's a brief look at the those 12 at-large teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out if the season ended now.