P2P CCS Playoff Projections
Wilcox is predicted as the high seed, most likely in the Open Division 1 field. (Hanson Ma/Prep2Prep)

Prep2Prep CCS Playoff Projections

UPDATED 10/29/2018

NOTE: earlier versions of this projection may have incorrectly included San Lorenzo Valley as part of the field. SLV will not qualify for the postseason because of numerous forfeits this season.

Today we are going to present two sets of projections side by side. For one, we predict the results of all remaining games for a true projection on what we think will happen the rest of the season. In the other, we simply present where teams would land if the season ended today. Between the two approaches, fans of all teams should know what needs to happen in order for their team to wind up with its desired outcome.

Here are the updated projected CCS league champs:

BVAL-Mount Hamilton: Oak Grove/Lincoln
BVAL-Santa Teresa: Independence
BVAL-West Valley: Andrew Hill
PAL-Bay: Menlo-Atherton
PAL-Ocean: Burlingame
PAL-Lake: Carlmont
PCAL-Gabilan: Palma/Aptos
PCAL-Mission: Carmel
PCAL-Cypress: Monterey
PCAL-Santa Lucia: Gonzales
SCVAL-De Anza: Wilcox
SCVAL-El Camino: Santa Clara/Saratoga/Mountain View
WCAL: Saint Francis

Note: Lincoln would have earned a spot in the field, but the Lions do not participate in CCS playoffs because of their commitment to the annual Big Bone Game against San Jose on Thanksgiving Day.

This empty bracket applies to all five divisions, so that you can see what the projected path would be for your favorite team:

(1)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Champion

(8)

(4)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5)

(3)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6)

(2)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7)


For the formula used to calculate CCS points, please click here (PDF).

OPEN DIVISION 1

Wilcox (1,969) would be the lowest enrollment school in Division 1 in the predicted model; Palo Alto (2,045) would be if the season ended today.


Palo Alto is projected to host a first-round game in Open Division 1. (Karen Hickey/Special to Prep2Prep)

Predicted Seeds
If Season Ended Today
Seed
School
CCS Points
Seed
School
CCS Points
1
Wilcox
32.33
1
Palo Alto
28
2
Palo Alto
30
2
Menlo-Atherton
25.75
3
Menlo-Atherton
28
3
San Benito
24.38
4
San Benito
24
4
Salinas
23.38
5
Salinas
23
5
Los Gatos
22.58
6
Los Gatos
22.33
6
Milpitas
19.75
7
Milpitas
21.5
7
Piedmont Hills
19
8
Piedmont Hills
19
8
Bellarmine College Prep
16.5

(1) WILCOX (32.5)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Open Div. 1 Champ

(8) Piedmont Hills (21)

(4) SALINAS (25)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) Los Gatos (22.5)

(3) MENLO-ATHERTON (27.5)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) San Benito (22)

(2) PALO ALTO (30)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) Milpitas (21.5)



OPEN DIVISION 2

In the prediction model, Leland (1,926) would be the highest enrollment school in Division 2; Valley Christian (1,629) the lowest. In the other model, Wilcox (1,969) would be the largest school and Aragon (1,660) the smallest.


Serra is projected as the No. 4 or No. 5 seed in Open Division 2, depending on model. (@PadreAthletics/Instagram)

Predicted Seeds
If Season Ended Today
Seed
School
CCS Points
Seed
School
CCS Points
1
St. Francis
32
1
Wilcox
30.58
2
Valley Christian
28
2
St. Francis
30
3
Oak Grove
26.25
3
Oak Grove
24.25
4
Leland
22.5
4
Serra
22
5
Serra
22
5
Leland
20.5
6
Christopher
20
6
Archbishop Mitty
19
7
Archbishop Mitty
19
7
Christopher
18
8
Aragon
17.5
8
Aragon
16.25
V

(1) ST. FRANCIS (32)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. 2 Champ

(8) Archbishop Mitty (19.5)

(4) SERRA (21.5)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) Leland (20.5)

(3) VALLEY CHRISTIAN (28.5)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) Christopher (20)

(2) OAK GROVE (29)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) Pioneer (20)



OPEN DIVISION 3

Pioneer (1,619) would be the highest enrollment school in Division 3 in the predicted model. Valley Christian (1,629) would be if the season ended today.


Sacred Heart Prep is projected as either a No. 2 or No. 3 seed in Division 3, depending on the model. (@SHPathletics/Twitter)

Predicted Seeds
If Season Ended Today
Seed
School
CCS Points
Seed
School
CCS Points
1
Palma
30.25
1
Palma
27.88
2
Aptos
28.75
2
Sacred Heart Prep
27.33
3
Sacred Heart Prep
28.33
3
Aptos
26.38
4
Terra Nova
25.5
4
Valley Christian
26
5
Live Oak
25
5
Live Oak
25
6
Sacred Heart Cathedral
23
6
Terra Nova
23.75
7
Pioneer
18
7
Sacred Heart Cathedral
20.75
8
St. Ignatius
17.5
8
Pioneer
18

(1) APTOS (31.5)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. 3 Champ

(8) St. Ignatius (17.5)

(4) LIVE OAK (27)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) Sacred Heart Prep (26.5)

(3) PALMA (27.5)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) Sacred Heart Cathedral (22.5)

(2) TERRA NOVA (27.5)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) Menlo School (18.5)



DIVISION 4

Overfelt (1,673) would be the smallest school in Division 4 under the prediction model; otherwise it would be Burlingame (1,423).


Santa Clara is projected as the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in Division 4. (Prep2Prep Staff)

Predicted Seeds
If Season Ended Today
Seed
School
CCS Points
Seed
School
CCS Points
1
Independence
27
1
Independence
25
2
Overfelt
23.33
2
Overfelt
23.33
3
Carlmont
21.33
3
Burlingame
23
4
Alisal
20
4
Carlmont
19.33
5
Willow Glen
20
5
Willow Glen
18.5
6
Santa Clara
19.82
6
Alisal
18
7
Mountain View
18.82
7
Santa Clara
17.82
8
Andrew Hill
15
8
Mountain View
16.82

(1) INDEPENDENCE (27)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. 4 Champ

(8) Andrew Hill (17)

(4) CARLMONT (21)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) Alisal (20)

(3) OVERFELT (23.5)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) Santa Clara (20)

(2) BURLINGAME (25)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) Monta Vista (19)



DIVISION 5

Burlingame (1,423) would be the largest school in the prediction model; Saratoga (1,354) would be the largest school in the season ends today model.


Carmel still projects as the No. 1 seed in Division 5. (@PadreSports/Twitter)


Predicted Seeds
If Season Ended Today
Seed
School
CCS Points
Seed
School
CCS Points
1
Carmel
27.5
1
Carmel
27.25
2
Monterey
26
2
Monterey
25.5
3
Burlingame
25
3
The King's Academy
22
4
The King's Academy
24
4
Gonzales
21.5
5
Gonzales
23.5
5
Del Mar
19.5
6
Del Mar
21.5
6
Saratoga
17.82
7
Saratoga
19.82
7
Monte Vista Christian
15.25
8
Monte Vista Christian
17.5
8
Mt. Pleasant
12.75

(1) CARMEL (27.5)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. 5 Champ

(8) Saratoga (20)

(4) THE KING'S ACADEMY (24)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) Gonzales (23.5)

(3) DEL MAR (25.5)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) Monte Vista Christian (21)

(2) MONTEREY (26)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) San Lorenzo Valley (20.5)



Here's a brief look at the at-large teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five in each classification that would be left out based on our projection process:


Predicted At-Large Teams (Open)
If Season Ended Today At-Large (Open)
#
School
CCS Points
#
School
CCS Points
1
Christopher
20
1
Archbishop Mitty
19
2
Archbishop Mitty
19
T-2
Pioneer
18
3
Pioneer
18
T-2
Christopher
18
4
St. Ignatius
17.5
4
Bellarmine College Prep
16.5

Predicted At-Large Teams (Div 4/5)
If Season Ended Today At-Large (Div 4/5)
#
School
CCS Points
#
School
CCS Points
1
Del Mar
21.5
1
Del Mar
19.5
2
Willow Glen
20
2
Willow Glen
18.5
3
Mountain View
18.82
3
Santa Clara
17.82


Predicted First 5 Out (Open)
If Season Ended Today First 5 Out (Open)
#
School
CCS Points
#
School
CCS Points
T-1
Cupertino
16.5
1
Cupertino
16.5
T-1
Bellarmine College Prep
16.5
2
Menlo
16.33
3
Menlo
16.33
3
St. Ignatius
15.5
4
Seaside
16
4
Half Moon Bay
15
5
Half Moon Bay
15
5
Seaside
14

Predicted First 5 Out (Div 4/5)
If Season Ended Today First 5 Out (Div 4/5)
#
School
CCS Points
#
School
CCS Points
1
Soquel
18.5
T-1
King City
17.5
T-2
Capuchino
17.83
T-1
Jefferson
17
T-2
North Salinas
17.83
T-3
Soquel
16.5
4
King City
17.5
T-3
Monta Vista
16.5
T-5
Branham/Jefferson/Monta Vista
17
T-5
Capuchino/North Salinas
15.83
Here's a brief look at the at-large teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five in each classification that would be left out based on our projection process. This only includes teams that meet the top six in league requirement. Note: this is based on our predicted results model.






BVAL-MH Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
6-1-0
8-2-0
5-2-0
8-3-0
5-2-0
6-5-0
5-2-0
6-5-0
4-3-0
4-7-0
2-5-0
2-8-0
1-6-0
4-7-0
0-7-0
1-9-0
BVAL-ST Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
7-0-0
11-1-0
5-2-0
9-3-0
5-2-0
7-4-0
3-4-0
6-5-0
3-4-0
5-5-0
2-5-0
5-5-0
2-5-0
4-6-0
1-6-0
3-7-0
BVAL-WV Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
6-1-0
6-5-0
5-2-0
6-4-0
5-2-0
5-5-0
4-3-0
6-4-0
2-5-0
2-8-0
1-6-0
2-8-0
1-6-0
1-10-0
PAL-Bay Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
5-0-0
13-2-0
3-2-0
8-3-0
2-3-0
2-9-0
1-4-0
4-6-0
0-5-0
3-7-0
PAL-Ocean Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
5-0-0
11-2-0
2-3-0
3-7-0
2-3-0
3-7-0
2-3-0
3-7-0
SCVAL-DA Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
6-0-0
14-1-0
5-1-0
10-2-0
4-2-0
6-5-0
3-3-0
6-5-0
1-5-0
4-6-0
1-5-0
2-8-0
1-5-0
1-9-0
SCVAL-EC Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
5-1-0
6-5-0
5-1-0
6-5-0
5-1-0
6-5-0
2-4-0
5-5-0
2-4-0
4-6-0
2-4-0
3-7-0
0-6-0
0-10-0
WCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
7-0-0
12-2-0
6-1-0
11-3-0
5-2-0
7-5-0
3-4-0
6-6-0
3-4-0
3-8-0
1-6-0
2-8-0
0-7-0
1-9-0
PAL-Lake Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
5-0-0
10-3-0
3-2-0
6-4-0
3-2-0
6-4-0
2-3-0
4-6-0
1-4-0
4-6-0
1-4-0
3-6-0
PCAL-Cypress Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
6-0-0
10-2-0
4-2-0
5-5-0
2-4-0
4-6-0
1-5-0
4-6-0
1-5-0
2-8-0
PCAL-Santa Lucia Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
6-0-0
11-1-0
5-1-0
8-2-0
4-2-0
4-5-0
3-3-0
3-7-0
2-4-0
4-6-0
1-5-0
3-7-0
0-6-0
0-10-0
PCAL-Gabilan Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
6-1-0
10-2-0
6-1-0
8-4-0
5-2-0
11-3-0
5-2-0
6-5-0
3-4-0
5-6-0
2-5-0
2-8-0
1-6-0
1-9-0
0-7-0
1-9-0
PCAL-Mission Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
6-0-0
12-1-0
3-3-0
5-5-0
3-3-0
3-8-0
2-4-0
5-5-0
1-5-0
4-6-0
1-5-0
4-6-0