There were a few upsets in Northern California this past weekend, necessitating a few changes in our NorCal playoff projections. Most notably, four teams we had slated for NorCal regional bowl games – Grant, Capital Christian, Lassen, Winters – were knocked off, opening the door for four new teams to go bowling in December.
Reminder that the complete Bowl Game criteria is outlined in the Prep2Prep article Understanding the new Bowl Game format.
Recall that only CIF Section champions can advance as qualifiers for a Northern Regional Bowl Game.
The one exception is the CIF Central Coast Section which has three Open Divisions and has gotten clearance under the CIF State criteria regarding sections with an Open Division to send runners-up in two of its three divisions.
Here’s a quick summary of the big picture in Northern California. Twenty-six berths are allocated among the sections as follows:
Central Coast Section – 5
North Coast Section – 5
Northern Section – 4
Oakland Section – 1
Sac-Joaquin Section – 7
San Francisco Section – 1
*Central Section – 3
(*Central Section will also send 3 teams to the Southern California playoffs).
The top-ranked team among the 26 qualifiers will be sent directly to the state Open championship against the Southern California representative. Furthermore, the best two teams with enrollment of 1,250 or less will participate in the Open Small playoffs.
The remaining teams will be ranked from 1-23 with No. 22 taking on No. 23 in a play-in game to fill out the brackets.
(Other than the Open Division the team mentioned first is projected to host)
Open: De La Salle
The surest thing since Monday following Sunday, De La Salle is in the North Coast Section Division I semifinals following a 47-0 beatdown of California, the second time the Spartans shut out the Grizzlies this season.
The next challenger to De La Salle’s crown is Pittsburg, which defeated Monte Vista 48-28 thanks to a big night from senior quarterback Christian Young (16 of 29 passing, 284 yards, 4 TDs).
Open Small: Central Catholic vs. Marin Catholic
As expected, Central Catholic rolled past Christian Brothers, 63-0. Senior Justin Rice ran for 115 yards and three touchdowns in limited action.
The Raiders will take on Placer, which won a wild one, 65-52 over Patterson to reach the Sac-Joaquin Section semifinals.
Marin Catholic stayed alive for a berth in this game with a 49-0 win over Fort Bragg to advance to the NCS Division IV playoffs. The Wildcats will likely keep an eye on the big Palma-Archbishop Riordan contest in the Central Coast Open Division 3 playoffs.
If Palma wins – and goes on to capture the CCS title – it may be the Chieftains in this spot. Marin Catholic meets Moreau Catholic in the semifinals.
I-AA: Folsom vs. Clayton Valley-Concord
Senior Jake Jeffrey continued his remarkable season, leading Folsom to a 49-21 win over Franklin. Jeffrey hit on 29-of-37 passes for 435 yards and five touchdowns to get the Bulldogs into the SJS Division I semifinals, where they will meet St. Mary’s.
Meanwhile, Clayton Valley, the heavy favorite in the NCS Division II playoffs, blew past Windsor 52-6 as senior quarterback Luis Ramos completed all seven of his pass attempts, for 141 yards and three touchdowns. The Eagles face Granada in the semifinals.
I-A: Bellarmine-San Jose vs. Rocklin
It would obviously be callous to assess Grant’s situation strictly from a football perspective following the tragic shooting death of Jaulon Clavo. The fact of the matter is the Pacers finished their season with a 24-21 loss to Granite Bay last Friday night.
It would be easy to just say the winner of the Sac-Joaquin Section Division II semifinal between the No. 9 seed Granite Bay team that beat top-seeded Grant and No. 5 seed Del Oro-Loomis should be the choice with Del Oro getting the nod for this week's projections because of a 17-14 road win over Granite Bay in Sierra Foothill League action. But we like No. 3 seed Rocklin on the bottom of the bracket for a couple of reasons.
First off, in our estimation Rocklin have played a much tougher schedule in the Sierra Foothill League than its semifinal opponent - No. 2 seed and undefeated Antelope - and we feel the Thunder will prevail. If so, Rocklin would be facing two teams it defeated in league play - coach Greg Benzel and his boys won 28-3 against Del Oro and 27-24 over Granite Bay.
As expected, Bellarmine rolled in its CCS Open Division 1 first-round matchup against Piedmont Hills, taking a 32-0 first-quarter lead and cruising to a 39-0 win. The Bells should face much stiffer competition in the semifinals against San Benito, which edged Menlo-Atherton in another quarterfinal.
II-AA: St. Francis-Mountain View vs. Clovis
St. Francis cruised into the CCS Open Division 2 playoffs with a 52-28 win over Pioneer. The Lancers will find the sledding much more difficult in the semifinals against Wilcox, which had little trouble with Leigh in the first round. For simple comparison purposes, Wilcox defeated Pioneer 52-6 early in the season.
No. 1 seed Clovis rolled into the Central Section Division I semis with a 28-6 win over Edison, setting up a rematch with rival Clovis North. Clovis defeated Clovis North 41-28 on October 30.
II-A: Valley Christian-San Jose vs. Archbishop Riordan-San Francisco
Junior quarterback Miles Kendrick attempted just six passes, but completed four of them for 74 yards and three touchdowns as Valley Christian advanced to the CCS Open Division 2 semifinals with a 34-15 win over Los Gatos.
Although the Warriors’ next opponent – Oak Grove – came up with an impressive victory over Archbishop Mitty in the first round – we expect Valley Christian to become bowl eligible by reaching the CCS title game. Valley Christian defeated Oak Grove 24-0 on September 11, but the Eagles are much improved.
Riordan’s season nearly ended in the first round in the Open Division 3 playoffs, as Burlingame gave the Crusaders everything they could handle in a 30-28 defeat. Riordan faces a de facto bowl playoff game Friday night against Palma, with the winner likely advancing to a NorCal regional bowl game.
III-AA: Pleasant Valley-Chico vs. Milpitas
The top seed in Northern Section Division II, Pleasant Valley blasted into the semifinals with a 56-14 win over Foothill. Next up is a date with Eastern/Sac River rival Shasta. The two teams met during the regular season, with Pleasant Valley coming away with a narrow 28-21 win at Shasta on September 25.
As expected, Milpitas had no trouble with Alvarez in a 46-0 win in the first round of the CCS Open Division 1 playoffs. The Trojans next meet Santa Clara Valley Athletic League rival Palo Alto, which upset Salinas in the first round. Milpitas hammered Palo Alto, 40-13, on October 9.
III-A: Campolindo vs. Hanford
Campolindo actually had an easier time of it in the second round than the first, trouncing Acalanes 42-7 to reach the NCS Division III semifinals. Junior Jacob Westphal completed 12 of 14 passes for 215 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Cougars, who will take on Bishop O’Dowd in the semis.
Meanwhile, Hanford, the top seed in the CS Division III playoffs, also won its quarterfinal game 42-7, over Kingsburg. Junior Ryan Johnson threw for 238 yards and a touchdown and ran for two scores to lead the Bullpups, who take on Golden Valley next.
IV-AA: Sonora vs. McClymonds
Now that Capital Christian was defeated by Bear River we will go back to the top seed Sonora as our choice to host McClymonds based on their MaxPreps/Calpreps power rating.
Sonora has a lone 41-15 loss to SJS Division III semifinalist Oakdale to open the season but has gone 11-0 since then including a 62-6 blowout of Orestimba-Newman last week. We project Sonora to beat Bear River this Saturday afternoon and win the title to become bowl bound.
McClymonds will be the first team to seal a NorCal berth if it can win the CIF Oakland Section Silver Bowl this Friday afternoon at Laney College.
The Warriors take on Fremont, a team they defeated 7-0 during Oakland Athletic League play. As mentioned in the previous projections, Mack could qualify for the Open Small game but Marin Catholic would have to lose to a team lower in the power rankings than Mack and that’s not likely. The result is it looks like the Warriors are headed to the Sierra foothills east of Stockton to historic Sonora.
IV-A: Sierra-Manteca vs. Sutter
After Lathrop was upset by Los Banos we switched out last week and went with a Sierra team that we felt had a stronger strength of schedule than Calaveras and the SJS Division IV No. 3 seed came through with a 34-20 win over Calaveras to get to this week’s title game against No. 4 seed Liberty Ranch-Stockton. We will stick with one of three teams from the Valley Oak League still in action.
Lassen was bounced from the Northern Division playoffs, as the top-seeded Grizzlies fell 20-12 to Sutter. The likely choice from the CIF Northern Division to fill the slot left open by Lassen would be Division No. 2 seed Orland, but that team lost its only game against a strong opponent - NCS Division IV No. 3 seed Fortuna, which is up against Cardinal Newman in the semis this Friday night.
We like the Sutter team to avenge a 21-13 loss to Orland only because it’s hard to beat a quality small school program like Sutter that’s been to a Northern Regional Bowl game. The game is at Orland once again and if both Orland and Sierra were to win the game would almost assuredly be at Orland.
V-AA: Berean Christian-Walnut Creek vs. Immanuel-Reedley
Berean Christian, the top seed in NCS Division V, struggled past Stellar Prep 6-2 to advance to the semifinals. The Eagles will face TCAL rival Valley Christian-Dublin, a team they defeated 42-13 during the regular season.
Immanuel moved one step closer to a NorCal regional playoff berth with a 44-14 win over Caruthers. The Eagles match up with Woodlake, a 34-17 winner over Kern Valley.
V-A: Hilmar vs. East Nicolaus
We are still going strong with SJS Division VI top-seeded Hilmar but as we said in the first projections two weeks ago we still foresee a possible upset in the finals against No. 2 seed Bradshaw Christian-Sacramento, and that game will take place on Saturday evening.
The Northern Section Division IV winner is slated to be placed in this slot and we originally went with top-seeded Winters but that team was upset by Williams.
The new choice is a No. 2 seeded East Nicolaus team that avenged an early season 23-16 loss to Durham with a 38-20 victory last week in the semifinals. Next up is Williams in the title game on Wednesday night. Williams lost to Durham during the regular season, 22-14.
With both Hilmar and Bradshaw Christian owning higher power rankings than either East Nicolaus or Williams, the Northern Section winner should be on the road.
VI-AA: Fall River vs. Mission
We have been projecting No. 2 seed Fall River over top-seeded Portola in the Northern Section Division V playoffs and we are sticking with that assertion after the Bulldogs advanced to the semifinals with an impressive 44-12 win over Maxwell. The championship matchup takes place Wednesday night as Portola did its part with a 27-20 win over Modoc.
Mission takes on Balboa for the San Francisco Section title on Thanksgiving. During the regular season, Mission trounced Balboa, 48-6, so the Bears will come in as clear favorites for the section title.
