With the CCS basketball seeding meeting taking place, we have our final projections for the 2018 boys basketball brackets. These projections have been made considering the criteria that the committee uses, as well as through direct conversation with four league representatives.
The biggest question mark in the field was decided on Friday night when Mitty clinched a berth with a 56-55 win over Sacred Heart Cathedral, decided on Hekili Jordan’s free throw with 0.7 seconds left. The Monarchs made it by the slimmest of margins, but their inclusion has a trickle-down effect that alters the entire field.
Open Division:
After much consideration, we believe that Menlo will hold the second seed and top-ranked Bellarmine will face a league opponent in the opening round.
The committee could choose to emphasize Serra’s wins over Heritage, St. Francis and University over the head-to-head result and put the Padres ahead of Sequoia.
It’s also possible that Serra and Mitty are flipped, as the two finished tied in the standings. Mitty technically owns the tiebreaker in the standings with a win over Bellarmine, but that 2-8 nonleague record could drop the Monarchs down a spot.
If the selection show starts late, it will be because of the debate for ordering the Open teams. It’s quite clear which eight should make it, but ordering them will be a bear. The one thing that we feel confident in is St. Ignatius facing Palo Alto, but if SI and St. Francis are seeded ahead of Menlo, an unlikely but possible scenario, that could all go out the window.
1. Bellarmine
2. Menlo
3. St. Francis
4. St. Ignatius
5. Palo Alto
6. Sequoia
7. Mitty
8. Serra
The order of those last three teams is very interchangeable and could make up the bulk of the discussion. The two main questions are where to seed Menlo (second or fourth, most likely) and how to order the final three teams.
Division I
With Bellarmine, Palo Alto and Sequoia heading to the Open Division, only the Division I champion will reach the State Tournament, but the field is still incredibly deep. Piedmont Hills is 22-2 and will almost certainly take the top seed. Dylan Belquist has Los Gatos lined up for the second seed. Major debate will be over which of Menlo-Atherton and Alisal takes the third seed, and the ordering of the lower half of the field is anyone’s guess. The last six spots are as tightly-packed as any.
As of now, M-A is projected for the third seed because of strong wins against Mission and San Leandro. Splitting a pair of meetings with Sequoia certainly won’t hurt the Bears, whereas Alisal’s best result is a 2-0 record against Monterey and splitting two games with Salinas.
Prior projections had Fremont out, but with North Salinas losing four straight to close the season, the Firebirds are now projected in over the Vikings.
1. Piedmont Hills
2. Los Gatos
3. Menlo-Atherton
4. Alisal
5. Los Altos
6. Cupertino
7. Salinas
8. Santa Clara
9. Santa Teresa
10. Evergreen Valley
11. Independence
12. Carlmont
Alvarez (vs. Independence), Fremont (vs. Evergreen Valley), Milpitas (vs. Santa Teresa), Silver Creek (vs. Carlmont)
Division II
Aragon and Leigh’s strong finishes to the season have debate at the top of the standings. Valley Christian has been seen as a likely top seed in Division II all year, but the Warriors will be challenged at the top. Valley Christian’s blowout win over Leigh in December is a likely factor to put the Warriors in the top spot.
As has been the case for the last four years, only the Division II champion will advance to the State Tournament. The Division II field has sent three teams to the Open Division every year except 2013, the first year the tournament was held.
Willow Glen is projected in the fourth spot by finishing ahead of Leland in the BVAL Mount Hamilton standings, and with San Mateo’s win over Leland during the Los Gatos Lions Club tournament, the Chargers drop to the sixth spot despite their win over Piedmont Hills.
Though it was the opening game of the season for both teams, Branham’s double-overtime win over Mountain View should boost the Bruins to the seventh seed. Likewise, Pioneer’s December 1 win over Wilcox could also have an impact on seedings
There are all sorts of possible matchups between league opponents in the second round. The bylaws state that the last four teams in the field, the non-seeded teams, will be placed to avoid league opponents whenever possible, but the teams ranked 1-12 are ordered without consideration for league matchups.
Overfelt is unseeded, but as a league champion, the Royals would host Wilcox in the opening round.
1. Valley Christian
2. Leigh
3. Aragon
4. Willow Glen
5. San Mateo
6. Leland
7. Branham
8. Mountain View
9. Gunn
10. Pioneer
11. Wilcox
12. Woodside
Christopher (vs. Gunn), Hill (vs. Woodside), Lynbrook (vs. Pioneer), Overfelt (vs. Wilcox)
Division III
Mitty’s last-second win over Sacred Heart Cathedral has huge ramifications in the Division III field, as the Fightin’ Irish drop out of the Open Division and into Division III, where they’re projected to hold the top seed. Mills has a much better overall record, but SHC has a win over St. Ignatius, while both the Irish and Riordan have wins against Mitty.
Del Mar qualified with a win over San Jose in the penultimate game of the season, meaning the field should have a full 16 teams.
1. Sacred Heart Cathedral
2. Riordan
3. Mills
4. Monterey
5. Aptos
6. Soquel
7. Hillsdale
8. Saratoga
9. Sobrato
10. Prospect
11. Soledad
12. Capuchino
Del Mar (vs. Soledad), Live Oak (vs. Capuchino), North Monterey County (vs. Prospect), Pajaro Valley (vs. Sobrato)
Division IV
The PAL and SCCAL tournaments could have a huge effect on Division IV, which is the hardest to predict of all the enrollment divisions. Jefferson reached the finals by beating Aragon and Mills, while Half Moon Bay reached the semis by beating Menlo-Atherton. Both teams saw their tournament runs end with the same fate, a loss to Sequoia.
Jefferson has been red-hot since the incorporation of three transfers at the start of January, but a December loss to Pacific Grove could be damaging. Santa Cruz beat Pacific Grove but has a loss to Lynbrook, while Half Moon Bay has the strongest schedule overall.
While there have been a handful of years where the Division IV field doesn’t even have 12 teams, there are 18 qualified this year, and with only one (Menlo) going to the Open Division, one team will be left out. That’s likely James Lick.
1. Jefferson
2. Half Moon Bay
3. Santa Cruz
4. Carmel
5. Monte Vista Christian
6. Sacred Heart Prep
7. Pacific Grove
8. Palma
9. King’s Academy
10. Harker
11. Scotts Valley
12. Seaside
Gonzales (vs. Scotts Valley), King City (vs. Harker), Marina (vs. Seaside), Terra Nova (vs. King’s Academy)
Division V
With so many teams from the PSAL and a few on the bubble with incomplete records, the Division V field could look significantly different when seedings are released. Woodside Priory swept the season series with Eastside and should therefore hold the second seed.
1. St. Francis SCP
2. Woodside Priory
3. Eastside College Prep
4. Pinewood
5. Alma Heights
6. Stevenson
7. Mountain View Academy
8. Nueva
9. Oakwood
10. Thomas More
11. North Valley Baptist
12. University Prep Academy
Kehillah Jewish (vs. Oakwood), Summit Prep (vs. More), Summit Shasta (vs. University Prep Academy), York (vs. North Valley Baptist)
