Our first installment of the North Coast Section boys’ basketball playoff projections breaks down which teams should be in the field and which teams are still fighting to get in. Following section seeding criteria, especially head-to-head and common opponent results, we have ranked the teams accordingly, and discussed the criteria used and how these seeds may change in the near future.
One disclaimer – there may be the possibility of other teams becoming eligible based on record against teams in their own division, but this would likely only affect one or two other teams. In the cases where there are 16 teams listed, there may be others on the bubble who may not currently be included based on what lies ahead on the schedule.
DIVISION I
As expected, this is a deep division, both in terms of teams who can meet eligibility criteria, and quality from top to bottom.
There are currently 17 teams which would meet criteria if the season ended today, while two others have a shot at getting there. This means there could be as many as three eligible teams left out when all is said and done. Right now, Arroyo has a .500 record in league play, which would have the Dons eligible, but a sub-.500 record overall and no quality wins, so they would seem to certainly be one of the teams left out of the field.
Things are not any easier to sort out at the top. Clayton Valley certainly has a strong argument for the top spot, despite its recent loss to Campolindo, but will need to go untouched through the rest of DAL play in order to secure that spot. Berkeley, Dublin, and Heritage are clustered in that order based on head-to-head results, with Berkeley beating Dublin in the season opener, and the Gaels beating Heritage in overtime back in the Don Nelson Classic.
De La Salle evened its season series with Dougherty Valley, climbing above the Wildcats in their division standings in the process. The Spartans have quality wins over Pittsburg, Alameda, and St. Patrick-St. Vincent, leaving them in especially good position now that they also swept the season series with Monte Vista and are alone atop the EBAL-Mountain. We currently have the teams listed from Pittsburg through Liberty in that order based on current head-to-head results.
One of the most difficult teams to seed will be San Leandro. The Pirates are below .500 overall, but have a winning record in the WACC-Foothill. They also have an overtime win against Freedom, who beat Monte Vista, but bad losses to non-playoff teams such as San Ramon Valley and El Cerrito.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Clayton Valley
2. Berkeley
3. Dublin
4. Heritage
5. De La Salle
6. College Park
7. James Logan
8. Pittsburg
9. Freedom
10. Monte Vista
11. Dougherty Valley
12. Liberty
13. Antioch
14. Amador Valley
15. San Leandro
16. Granada
DIVISION II
Another deep division, and the top eight could get really tough to sort out here, especially with the lack of head-to-head opportunities outside of league play. Also, it is tough to get a feel for how the committee will view losses to elite teams outside the section and outside the state. Last year, we thought Moreau was a lock for the two seed after its elite non-league schedule, only to see the Mariners bumped down to the four seed.
That being said, Bishop O’Dowd is a near-lock for the top seed. Las Lomas has been playing well all season, and is tied with Clayton Valley atop the DAL-Foothill. Moreau has a loss to Newark, but sits alone atop the MVAL right now. The Mariners need to beat Newark in the second meeting, however.
Further down, the committee will have a real difficult choice with where to place teams like Acalanes, who played well and notched quality wins outside of league, but has struggled in the rugged DAL-Foothill Division. The Dons, however, have a big non-league win over Newark Memorial, which could factor big into the seedings if Moreau beats Newark in their second meeting. If Newark sweeps Moreau, those two wins will carry more weight than the loss to Acalanes.
Washington has a good non-league win over Cardinal Newman early in the season, but also a more recent non-league loss to Tamalpais, who also lost to De Anza. Teams like De Anza and Northgate are unbeaten in league play, but play in lower divisions of their respective leagues. De Anza also has a non-league loss to Acalanes.
The decision between Maria Carrillo and Petaluma for the final seed could be a very tough one. They did not play this year, and have identical results against common opponents. Mission San Jose should be in based on its earlier win over Newark Memorial.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Bishop O’Dowd
2. Las Lomas
3. Moreau Catholic
4. Alameda
5. Windsor
6. Montgomery
7. Cardinal Newman
8. Acalanes
9. Newark Memorial
10. Northgate
11. De Anza
12. Redwood
13. Tamalpais
14. Washington
15. Mission San Jose
16. Maria Carrillo/Petaluma
DIVISION III
The easiest decision for a top seed might be here in Division III, where the top overall team in the section – Salesian – currently resides. There seems to be a big drop-off after the Pride, though Campolindo’s win over Clayton Valley has the Cougars in line for the two seed here.
Drake struggled against some strong competition in non-league play, but has flourished in the MCAL, and has quality wins over Piner and Miramonte. Piner is a game back in the SCL standings, but the Prospectors could find themselves with a top four seed in this bracket, especially with wins over Hercules and San Marin during non-league play.
Albany is a bit tough to gauge based on the strength of the TCAL-Rock, but the Cougars will likely end up as a top seven seed, having beaten Pinole Valley and El Cerrito. It’s a similar story for San Rafael, who could be the five or six seed. The Bulldogs are middle of the pack in the MCAL, but have head-to-head wins over Albany, Sonoma Valley, and Pinole Valley. Their key loss, however, is to Alhambra, who also has wins over Pinole Valley and Sonoma Valley.
Hercules has swept both meetings with Kennedy-Richmond, putting the Titans in position ahead of the Eagles. Pinole Valley also has key wins over Sonoma Valley and Encinal, which will definitely come into play should the Spartans continue to meet the qualifying criteria. Pinole needs to split its final regular season games against Hercules and Kennedy, which is exactly what they did in the first two meetings.
San Marin has some real quality wins over teams projected to be in this field, but it appears that the Mustangs’ own eligibility could come down its regular season finale this week against San Rafael. That game could determine San Marin’s ability to become eligible based on record against opponents in the division. Since they lost the first meeting, we are leaving them out for now, but a win could get them in and move them all the way into a top eight seed based on earlier results.
By the same token as San Marin, Miramonte’s eligibility could hinge on its regular season finale against Campolindo.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Salesian
2. Campolindo
3. Drake
4. Piner
5. Alhambra
6. San Rafael
7. Albany
8. Hercules
9. Kennedy-Richmond
10. Pinole Valley
11. Analy
12. Sonoma Valley
DIVISION IV
The records are almost irrelevant here, since the level of competition varies so widely from one team and one league to the next among Division IV contenders. St. Patrick-St. Vincent and St. Joseph Notre Dame have otherwise average overall records, but few other teams in this field have played competition even remotely close to what these teams have faced, with the possible exception of Lick-Wilmerding, Stuart Hall, and Piedmont.
Stuart Hall, in fact, could have the seeding edge over St. Joe’s, based on the Knights’ win over Sacramento, who beat the Pilots. The Hall also beat Mission and has a pair of wins over Lick.
Other teams from those leagues are also down the list in terms of record, but have quality wins and close losses across the board – teams like Saint Mary’s, who could easily be in contention for a semifinal appearance and NorCal bid. Meanwhile, teams such as Roseland are unbeaten in league, but that should matter very little to the committee.
Healdsburg and Kelseyville are both on track to be league champions, but have little in the way of non-league victories to climb the ladder. Kelseyville, in fact, has losses to both Piedmont and McKinleyville.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. St. Patrick-St. Vincent
2. Stuart Hall
3. St. Joseph Notre Dame
4. Piedmont
5. Saint Mary’s
6. Lick-Wilmerding
7. Healdsburg
8. McKinleyville
9. Kelseyville
10. Middletown
11. Del Norte
12. Arcata
13. Roseland Prep
14. Gateway
15. Fortuna
DIVISION V
This much is clear in Division V – any result other than University and Branson meeting in the final will be a bit of a shocker, and these teams should certainly be the top two seeds.
Much like Division IV, there are teams here who have sparkling records, but have not faced any top 25-caliber competition. Meanwhile, teams like Urban are on the bubble for meeting eligibility criteria, but could easily make a run if they are eligible. The Blues need to split their games this week in order to be eligible, but can make a strong case for a top three seed with wins over Redwood Christian and Berean Christian.
Following the top two seeds, the rest could get murky here, thanks to the merry-go-round effect of teams beating each other. Consider that Clear Lake split its season series with Cloverdale and has a win over Sonoma Academy, who beat Upper Lake. However, Clear Lake also lost to St. Bernard’s, who lost to Berean Christian. Cloverdale has wins over Berean Christian and Middletown.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. University
2. Branson
3. Urban
4. Redwood Christian
5. Cloverdale
6. Berean Christian
7. St. Bernard’s
8. Clear Lake
9. Head-Royce
10. San Domenico
11. Sonoma Academy
12. Technology
13. Upper Lake
14. Hoopa Valley
15. Oakland Military Institute
16. Quarry Lane
