Now in our fifth week, and in the final week of the regular season, the playoff projections have taken a whole new twist after the special meeting of the NCS executive committee determined that teams did not need to meet the even record criteria in order to apply this season. As a result, we are including a full 16 teams in the projections for each bracket, assuming teams will apply, unless they tell us directly that they will not apply.
Following section seeding criteria, especially head-to-head and common opponent results, we rank teams accordingly each week, and discuss the criteria used and how these seeds may change in the near future.
OPEN
Projected four teams:
1. De La Salle
2. Pittsburg
3. San Ramon Valley
4. Freedom/Clayton Valley
Rationale: These projections have not changed for a few weeks, but the gap between Freedom and Clayton Valley for the final spot feels smaller than ever, and we are finding it hard to separate them heading into the final game of the regular season. Deer Valley is the only common opponent for these schools, and Clayton Valley has a slight edge there, beating Deer Valley 48-20, while Freedom beat the Wolverines 17-3, needing a 91-yard fumble return by Thomas Houston to seal the victory.
However, Freedom has a signature win over Bishop O’Dowd, which becomes even more significant if O’Dowd beats San Leandro this Friday for the WACC-Foothill title. Freedom also has wins over San Leandro and Turlock. If the Falcons beat Liberty this week, it will be another quality win, and the loss to Pittsburg was by just 14 points. Meanwhile, Clayton Valley plays in a league void of Division I opponents, and the Ugly Eagles’ best non-league win against Antioch took a hit when the Panthers lost by 17 points to Liberty. The losses are to a pair of elite opponents, however, especially the 49-30 loss to a Mililani team which is currently 11-0 and recently beat Kahuku. That loss should almost be thrown out due to the elite nature. And there is the fact that Clayton Valley will be a league champion, while Freedom will likely finish out of the lead in the BVAL.
While De La Salle continues to be the no-brainer for the top seed, Pittsburg now has a strong case for the two seed if the Pirates win out. They have wins over Freedom, Vacaville, Liberty, and Serra, with only a season-opening loss to Centennial-Corona. The win over Serra continues to look more impressive, especially after Serra routed Valley Christian to take sole possession of the lead in the West Catholic Athletic League.
San Ramon Valley continues to stay unbeaten, and has a strong non-league win over Tracy, but the strength of schedule and quality wins do not quite match up to Pittsburg right now. A close effort against De La Salle in the regular season finale could change that, however.
DIVISION I
Projected seeds:
1. Clayton Valley/Freedom
2. Liberty
3. Antioch
4. San Leandro
5. Foothill
6. California
7. Amador Valley
8. Heritage
9. Monte Vista
10. Deer Valley
11. Dublin
12. James Logan
13. Berkeley
14. Castro Valley
15. Irvington
16. Dougherty Valley
Rationale: If Clayton Valley goes unbeaten in league play, like they have every year since Tim Murphy arrived in 2012, the Eagles will be the top seed in Division I, at the worst. The one-sided win over Antioch helps to ensure that, even after Liberty also beat the Panthers.
If Freedom loses one more game, and maybe even if it does not, Clayton Valley could end up in the Open, with Liberty’s chances to move up greatly decreasing after a 35-point loss to Pittsburg. In the case that Liberty could beat Freedom on Friday, the Lions would then be the top seed in the Division I bracket, with Clayton Valley moving to the Open and Freedom moving down to the second seed here in this bracket.
Liberty’s head-to-head win over Antioch lifts the Lions above the Panthers, who have a head-to-head win over San Leandro. The only way Antioch can move higher is to beat Pittsburg on Friday night.
San Leandro has the head-to-head win over Foothill, who in turn has a win over California, who has a win over Amador Valley. The pecking order will be easily determined by the committee there, with all the direct results and no confusing three-way results. This will likely not change even if San Leandro beats Bishop O’Dowd on Friday, due to the earlier losses to Freedom, Liberty, and Antioch.
Amador Valley also has solid wins over Granada and Monte Vista, helping the Dons cause for the seven seed over Heritage, who has yet to notch a quality win that can measure up to those. Also, Amador Valley is in line for a top four finish in the EBAL, while Heritage can finish no better than fifth in the BVAL, if it beats Deer Valley on Friday night. Amador Valley can move even higher if the Dons can beat Foothill this Friday, though that would create a confusing mess between those teams and California.
The bottom half of this bracket is hugely influenced by the elimination of the even record criteria, and the eight through 10 seeds are still in flux. Monte Vista has wins over Deer Valley and Dublin, so the Mustangs will be in front of both those teams. Both Deer Valley and Dublin’s losses to Monte Vista were close, so there is little separation there. We are placing the Wolverines higher right now in part due to their win over Kennedy-Richmond, who will be a league champion, and the one-point loss to Liberty.
Those seeds can still change, however, based on the result of the Heritage-Deer Valley game this Friday. If Heritage wins by more than a touchdown, the Patriots should be the eight seed. Win by less than a touchdown, and the committee could move Monte Vista ahead of Heritage based on common opponent scores with Deer Valley. Lose to Deer Valley, and Heritage would drop to either the 10 or 11 seed, while Monte Vista would move up to eight and Deer Valley would move up to nine.
Dublin and James Logan both have wins over Castro Valley, by comparable margins, but we have Dublin higher right now based on the two-point loss to Monte Vista and the win over Livermore, which is better than any win right now on Logan’s resume. That could change if Logan beats Moreau Catholic on Friday night. Berkeley and Castro Valley will determine their seedings with a head-to-head game in the regular season finale.
We have Irvington ahead of Dougherty based on overall record, and the Vikings’ win over Watsonville being slightly better than Dougherty’s win over San Lorenzo. Irvington still needs to beat American this week, however.
DIVISION II
Projected seeds:
1. Campolindo
2. Granada
3. Northgate
4. Ukiah
5. Casa Grande
6. Livermore
7. Windsor
8. Maria Carrillo
9. Alameda
10. Mt. Eden
11. College Park
12. Redwood
13. Santa Rosa
14. Montgomery
15. Washington
16. Pinole Valley
Rationale: What a difference one week can make, which means this division has not only taken on a very different look after last week’s results, but can do so again after this week. Simply put, this is the most difficult division to predict. With the games lost due to the fires and resulting air quality, plus the myriad of confusing results, this one could feel a little like throwing darts blind-folded.
Campolindo feels like a strong bet for the top spot, especially with wins over Miramonte, St. Ignatius, and El Cerrito, but it gets murkier the farther down we go, and even the Cougars cannot be considered a lock anymore after the loss to Acalanes, though another loss this week to Clayton Valley would not have any impact.
Granada’s wins over Monte Vista, Dublin, and Benicia make the Matadors a strong bet for the two seed, especially if they finish with a win over Livermore. Northgate, meanwhile, would typically drop after the loss to Alhambra this past Friday, to go with the recent one-point win over Berean Christian, but all the other results below them leave the Broncos in the three spot – for now. And it gets real tricky after that.
We previously had Windsor penciled in – very lightly – as the four seed, but now that the Jaguars have losses to both Montgomery and Casa Grande, they could potentially free fall, though this week’s game with Ukiah has huge seeding ramifications. In fact, we have moved Ukiah all the way up to the four spot, as the Wildcats are now sitting in third place in the NBL with wins over Montgomery, Santa Rosa, and Casa Grande, plus a solid seven-point loss to unbeaten Eureka. The galling loss on Ukiah’s slate right now is the one to Redwood.
On one hand, it feels ludicrous to project Casa Grande as a potential five seed. The Gauchos started the year 0-6, but the reality is none of them are very bad losses. That includes a loss to Ukiah and a six-point loss to a 7-1 Petaluma team. Meanwhile, Casa has won its last two games, beating both Terra Linda and Windsor, and faces Santa Rosa this week with the chance to extend the winning streak to three games. Carrillo has wins over Santa Rosa and Redwood, and a one-point loss to 5-2 Benicia.
Livermore does not have a big quality win, but has played well in losses to Monte Vista and Dublin, and does have a win over Dougherty Valley. Carrillo has a four-point loss to Windsor, but also wins over both Santa Rosa and Redwood. Meanwhile, with wins over Mt. Eden and San Lorenzo, Alameda is a team to watch, despite last week’s loss to Encinal. Mt. Eden also has wins over Redwood and Hayward.
College Park has wins over Concord, Tennyson, and Pinole Valley, while Redwood has the head-to-head win over Ukiah. The Giants could easily slide, however, as they also have a poor overall record and a blowout loss to Terra Linda, who lost to Casa Grande. Santa Rosa has a huge 40-7 win over Montgomery, who might just be the hardest team to seed. The Vikings could go as high as the seven seed, with the win over Windsor, or as low as the 14 seed, with the loss to Santa Rosa. Right now, we have them low because that margin of loss is hard to overlook, but things can change big time since Montgomery still has Maria Carrillo left on the regular season schedule.
Washington has a win over Pinole Valley, who beat Hayward, which would leave the Farmers on the outside looking in right now, if all these teams apply. Hayward, though, has a big opportunity remaining against Alameda in the regular season finale.
DIVISION III
Projected seeds:
1. Bishop O’Dowd
2. Marin Catholic
3. Rancho Cotate
4. Cardinal Newman
5. Acalanes
6. Encinal
7. Miramonte
8. El Cerrito
9. Eureka
10. Analy
11. Alhambra
12. Petaluma
13. Terra Linda
14. Las Lomas
15. Kennedy-Fremont
16. Tennyson
Rationale: This remains the deepest division, aside from Division I, and also the hardest to sort out, especially at the top. It is hard to imagine the committee penalizing O’Dowd for losses to Freedom and De La Salle, especially since they were competitive with the Falcons. And if O’Dowd goes unbeaten in the WACC-Foothill, they will need to beat San Leandro in the regular season finale this week, a team which has proven itself to be close to any of the top teams in the section.
With Rancho Cotate’s win over Cardinal Newman, Marin Catholic seems to have the edge for the two seed. Both MC and Rancho are unbeaten, but Marin Catholic’s win over Campolindo was by a larger margin than Rancho’s win against Campo, and that plays into the common opponent factor. It’s hard to imagine Cardinal Newman dropping lower than four, even if the Cardinals get swept in the series. In all likelihood, the winner of the second game between Rancho and Newman will get the three seed.
Right now, Acalanes has the common opponent edge over Miramonte, with Alhambra and Campolindo as those common opponents, but these teams will sort out their standing by playing head to head this week.
The debate between Miramonte and Encinal for the six and seven seeds will be a difficult one, especially after they posted near-identical scores against Alameda. Encinal is likely to undefeated and be a league champion, but the Jets’ best win is over Piedmont, who will likely be a third-place team, at best, in their league. Meanwhile, Miramonte has a win over Alhambra, who just wrapped up the DAL-Valley title, although that is considered a ‘B’ division while Piedmont plays in an ‘A’ division. We are going right now with the team who has the better record and will be a league champion.
El Cerrito has only one loss, to Campolindo, and the Gauchos just beat St. Patrick-St. Vincent, which is a better win than anything Eureka or Analy has on its resume. The Gauchos’ loss to Campolindo was comparable to Miramonte’s loss against the Cougars, so the seven seed is also not out of the question for El Cerrito, or possibly even the six seed ahead of Encinal.
Eureka, meanwhile, is another team that could go unbeaten in the regular season, and with wins over James Logan and Fortuna, has better wins than anything Analy can boast this season.
Analy’s three losses are all to elite teams (Rancho Cotate, Cardinal Newman, Marin Catholic), but since none of them were even remotely close, they do not help the Tigers much. Having already beaten Petaluma, Analy seems pretty assured of going on to win the SCL, but it would be tough to seed them ahead of any of the above teams.
Alhambra has a good win over San Marin, and just clinched at least a share of the DAL-Valley title with a nice win over Northgate. Despite that, the Bulldogs could end up in the rare situation of a league champion who has to play on the road, thanks to the depth of this bracket.
Petaluma has wins over Terra Linda and Montgomery outside of league play. Terra Linda just beat San Marin, which guarantees that the Trojans will get seeded ahead of Kennedy-Fremont, who lost to San Marin.
With the even record criteria out of the way, Las Lomas moves back into the picture for the field, especially with wins over College Park and Dougherty Valley, who beat San Lorenzo, and competitive losses against Northgate and Alhambra.
With wins over Castro Valley and Hayward, Tennyson is now likely to get back in the field. Hayward beat San Lorenzo, which gives Tennyson a firm edge there, and beating a Division I opponent is better than anything De Anza has on its slate right now.
DIVISION IV
Projected seeds:
1. St. Bernard’s
2. Moreau Catholic
3. Harker
4. Kennedy-Richmond
5. Piedmont
6. Hercules
7. Fortuna
8. San Marin
9. Ygnacio Valley
10. Saint Mary’s
11. Lower Lake
12. El Molino
13. Justin-Siena
14. Salesian
15. Healdsburg
16. Del Norte
Rationale: St. Bernard’s receiving the top seed is pretty clear-cut right now.
Moreau Catholic is only 4-4 overall right now, but the Mariners beat Kennedy-Fremont 50-12 and clinched an unbeaten league slate, and lost by just seven points to St. Bernard’s in non-league play. Additionally, the four teams who beat Moreau to open the season are a combined 33-1 right now, and the Mariners. A win over Logan in the regular season finale can cement the two seed, but a loss would drop Moreau to the four spot.
We are moving Harker up a spot after the Eagles routed Division I Irvington to complete their regular season, and won all games by 20 points or more. That includes wins over 6-3 Rio Vista and a pair of 6-2 teams in Cupertino and Santa Clara who will play next week for the SCVAL-El Camino title in the CCS. Harker shut out the latter two teams.
Kennedy-Richmond is the TCAL-Stone champion, after beating Hercules two weeks, and right now has just a lone one-point loss to Division I Deer Valley, while also owning another quality win over Oakland Tech.
Piedmont has performed well against Division I opponents in league play, beating both Berkeley and Castro Valley, and the Highlanders also have a seven-point loss to unbeaten Encinal. The other losses are to a couple of potential league champions – Menlo and Bishop O’Dowd. Piedmont can make a strong case for a top five seed by beating Tennyson this week.
Fortuna has losses to Cardinal Newman and Eureka, which are both solid losses, and the strength of schedule is helped by those. Hercules, though, also has a case for the six seed at 7-1, with the lone loss to Kennedy-Richmond, and a win over Middletown, who should win the North Central League title and get the second seed in Division V.
Despite the loss to Terra Linda, San Marin still figures to have a solid shot at the eight seed, with wins over Casa Grande, Kennedy-Fremont, and Redwood. Ygnacio Valley’s wins over College Park and De Anza are stronger than any wins for the rest of the field, with the margin of victory over De Anza favorable to the same win for Lower Lake. Lower Lake has solid wins over Clear Lake, Fort Bragg, and St. Helena, but Saint Mary’s has a one-sided win over Salesian, and the combined record of the five teams to beat the Panthers is 35-7. If Saint Mary’s beats Pinole to finish the regular season, the Panthers should be in the top 10.
El Molino also has wins over Fort Bragg and Healdsburg, though the Lions need to beat Sonoma Valley in the regular season finale to avoid plummeting. Justin-Siena has a seven-point loss to Hercules, and the Braves will likely finish in second place in the MCAL, meaning they could end up ahead of El Molino. Salesian’s win over Swett is better than anything for the remaining teams below the Pride.
DIVISION V
Projected seeds:
1. St. Patrick-St. Vincent
2. Middletown
3. Kelseyville
4. Arcata
5. Clear Lake
6. Stellar Prep
7. Fort Bragg
8. St. Helena
9. Cloverdale
10. Berean Christian
11. Ferndale
12. California School for the Deaf
13. Willits
14. Elsie Allen
15. Hoopa Valley
16. St. Vincent
Rationale: St. Pat’s has a virtual lock on the top seed in this division, even after losing to El Cerrito. Middletown has only a six-point loss to unbeaten Hercules, and already has head-to-head wins over Kelseyville, Fort Bragg, and Berean Christian.
Kelseyville has the one-point loss to Middletown, and also has solid wins over Clear Lake, St. Helena and Stellar Prep. Arcata has earlier wins over Del Norte and Ferndale, and with a 21-0 win over Fort Bragg this past week, now has a common opponent edge over Clear Lake, who nipped the Timberwolves 13-7.
Fort Bragg beat St. Helena, establishing the pecking order for these schools right now.
Stellar Prep has a win over Cloverdale, and a quality eight-point loss to Kelseyville, so don’t expect the Thunder to be seeded too far down despite the overall record.
Cloverdale has a big win over Berean Christian, who will now be in the field after the even record criteria was eliminated. With wins over Salesian and College Park, and a one-point loss to Northgate, however, Berean will not drop any farther.
