P2P Softball CCS Playoff Projections
Mitty is currently projected as the top seed in Division I. (Emma McLaughlin/Prep2Prep)

Prep2Prep CCS Softball Playoff Projections

FINAL PROJECTIONS (5/12/2018)


Based on the latest information presented to Prep2Prep through games of May 11, we are releasing our projections for the 2018 Central Coast Section playoff tournaments. We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams that compete in the Central Coast Section, but it is possible that there are slight schedule variations for some teams.

We've experienced a lot of change in this set of projections due in large part to removing games from our system that didn't appear to take place. Please see below for more details.

These projections are based on our best available information; if you would like to correct a team's result, please contact Prep2Prep via email or tweet us @Prep2PrepSports. You can also leave comments on our Facebook page.

For more details on the CCS point system, please click here.

The 5 "A" league champions plus the next three highest point-total getters will comprise an eight-team elite playoff field. The other 32 teams in the playoff field will be split according to enrollment with the top 16 in Division I and the rest of the teams in Division II.

Nothing has changed with regard to the automatic qualifiers, of which there are 28 spread out over the leagues as follows: BVAL (6), PAL (4), SCVAL (4), MBL (4), MTAL (3), WBAL (3), WCAL (2) and SCCAL (2).

The remaining 12 at-large teams are selected based on a point system that awards teams based on results over the entire season, including non-league play. To be considered for an at-large berth, teams must have at least a .500 record in either league play or overall. An average number of points per game is calculated based on the number of total games played, or 17 if a team played fewer than 17 games.

Leagues within CCS are designated as "A" (highest), "B" and "C". Wins against "A" teams count for 3 points; wins against "B" teams count for 2.5; and wins against "C" teams count for 2. Strip off one point from those totals in cases of ties, and two points for losses to respectively designed "A", "B" and "C" teams. Teams outside of CCS are considered "B" teams.

Finally, teams are awarded 2 points for playing an "A" league champion, 1.5 points for playing a "B" league champion and 1 point for playing a "C" league champion. Teams also receive 5 points for being an "A" league champion, 4 for being a "B" league champion and 3 for being a "C" league champion.

BVAL-Mount Hamilton (3 automatic bids)

LOCKS (5): Silver Creek (auto), Oak Grove (auto), Branham (auto), Santa Teresa, Sobrato. Branham won three of its last four games to seal the third automatic bid.

BUBBLE: none.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (3): Pioneer, Leland, Live Oak.

BVAL-Santa Teresa Division (2 automatic bids)

LOCKS (2): Piedmont Hills (auto), Westmont (auto). Despite falling into a three-way tie for first place with a loss to Leigh on the final day of the regular season, Piedmont Hills is still the top automatic qualifier by tiebreaker. Evergreen Valley appears to be the odd team out in the three-way tiebreaker for two spots.

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE: none.

HAIL MARY (3): Evergreen Valley, Willow Glen, Leigh. We have the Cougars (1.80), Rams (1.73) and Longhorns (1.67) as three of the first five out.

OUT (3): Prospect, Gunderson, Lincoln.

BVAL-West Valley Division (1 automatic bid)

LOCKS (1): Independence (auto). The 76ers have clinched the league title.

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE: none.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (7): Overfelt, James Lick, Del Mar, Andrew Hill, Mt. Pleasant, San Jose, Yerba Buena.

MBL-Gabilan (3 automatic bids)

LOCKS (6): Watsonville (auto), San Benito (auto), Gilroy (auto), Christopher, Notre Dame-Salinas, Salinas. Watsonville (9-3) won the division over San Benito (9-3) in a tiebreaker, but all of these teams will have enough CCS points.

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE: none.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (1): Monterey.

MBL-Pacific (1 automatic bid)

LOCKS (1): Alvarez (auto). According to our records, Alvarez would win the tiebreaker over North Salinas for the league title.

ON THE DOORSTEP (1): North Salinas. The Vikings (2.11) have a good shot at an at-large bid; we have them as comfortably in at the moment with the cutoff at 2.06 points.

BUBBLE: none.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (5): Seaside, North Monterey County, Monte Vista Christian, Alisal, Pajaro Valley.

MTAL (3 automatic bids; playoff for last spot)

LOCKS (2): Santa Catalina (auto), Pacific Grove (auto). The Cougars (15-0) and Breakers (11-4) have clinched the automatic bids.

ON THE DOORSTEP (1): Carmel. The Padres (2.14) will be heavy favorites to defeat the MTAL-Coastal champ in the playoff. But even then, they should have enough CCS points to get in.

BUBBLE (2): Greenfield, King City. These two teams are contending for the MTAL-Coastal crown. The winner will earn a shot at the third-place team in the MTAL-MT.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (7): Soledad, Marina, Stevenson, Trinity Christian, Gonzales, York, Anzar.

PAL-Bay (3 automatic bids)

LOCKS (5): Carlmont (auto), Hillsdale (auto), San Mateo (auto), Half Moon Bay, Aragon. Half Moon Bay and Aragon haven't clinched an automatic bid but will have enough CCS points to get in.

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE (1): Burlingame. The Panthers (2.00) are right on the at-large bubble; right now, we have them as the first team out. in the field.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (3): Capuchino, Woodside, Sequoia.

PAL-Ocean (1 automatic bid)

LOCKS (1): South San Francisco (auto). The Warriors have wrapped up the PAL-Ocean title.

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE: none.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (5): Mills, Terra Nova, Menlo-Atherton, El Camino, Jefferson.

SCCAL (2 automatic bids)

LOCKS (2): Aptos (auto), San Lorenzo Valley (auto).

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE: none.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (5): St. Francis SCP, Soquel, Scotts Valley, Santa Cruz, Harbor.

SCVAL-De Anza (3 automatic bids)

LOCKS (3): Los Gatos (auto), Mountain View (auto), Santa Clara (auto).

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE (1): Wilcox. The Chargers (2.06) are the last team in based on our projection. Wilcox gained 0.06 points thanks to the three-way tie in the BVAL-Santa Teresa, but would beat out Burlingame in any case in a head-to-head tiebreaker.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (3): Monta Vista, Milpitas, Homestead.

SCVAL-El Camino (1 automatic bid)

LOCKS (1): Los Altos (auto).

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE: none.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (6): Fremont, Palo Alto, Saratoga, Cupertino, Lynbrook, Gunn.

WBAL (3 automatic bids)

LOCKS (3): Notre Dame-Belmont (auto), The King's Academy (auto), Mercy Burlingame (auto).

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE: none.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (6): Notre Dame-San Jose, Crystal Springs Uplands, Harker, Castilleja, Mercy San Francisco, Pinewood.

WCAL (2 automatic bids)

LOCKS (5): Valley Christian (auto), St. Francis (auto), St. Ignatius, Archbishop Mitty, Presentation.

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE: none.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (1): Sacred Heart Cathedral.

Because the season is not quite over, we must make a few assumptions:

ASSUMPTION 1: points are calculated on the assumption that an individual team will lose the rest of its games. The bonus points for playing a league champion are included in the calculation. In other words, the point total you see represents the minimum point total for a given team, based on the total number of games the team will play for the entire season.

ASSUMPTION 2: in calculating points awarded for playing league champions, points were split according to the number of teams currently tied for first place. For instance, per CCS rules, teams are awarded one point for playing a league champion; if a team played a team that is currently in a three-way tie for first, we credit the team 0.33 points. If two teams at the top of a league have not played the same number of games, we assume league champ based on points per game.

ASSUMPTION 3: in the first round, league mates are not matched up whenever possible as per CCS rules.

ASSUMPTION 4: teams will apply for CCS and we will use league bylaws to determine order of finish as applicable. For instance if two at-large teams apply for CCS from the same league, some league's bylaws mandate that the team that finished higher in the league standings must get in first whereas other leagues rank at-large teams based on CCS points. We are assuming no teams will pull out of consideration. If we cannot determine a league's bylaws, we will assume they rank by order of CCS points.

ASSUMPTION 5: some leagues hold a postseason tournament to fill out their allotment of automatic qualifiers. In those instances, we assumed the team(s) with the highest CCS point totals will receive the automatic bid.

NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.

OPEN DIVISION: Silver Creek (BVAL-Mount Hamilton), Watsonville (MBL-Gabilan - tiebreaker over San Benito), Carlmont (PAL-Bay), Los Gatos (SCVAL-De Anza - tiebreaker over Mountain View) and Valley Christian (WCAL) have all won their respective "A" divisions. The three at-large berths belong to St. Francis (2.85), St. Ignatius (2.76) and Santa Catalina (2.72).

Oddly enough, based on our point totals, Valley Christian would be the lowest seeded of the three WCAL teams despite winning both the league and tournament.


St. Francis is projected to be one of three WCAL teams in the Open Division. (Twitter @sfhsathletics)

(1) CARLMONT (3.27)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Open Div. Champ

(8) Los Gatos (2.61)

(4) WATSONVILLE (2.82)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) St. Ignatius (2.76)

(3) ST. FRANCIS (2.85)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) Santa Catalina (2.72)

(2) SILVER CREEK (2.86)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) Valley Christian (2.65)




DIVISION I: After the eight top teams are placed in the Open, the 16 teams with the highest enrollment are placed in Division I with the remaining 16 teams placed in Division II.

The apperance of Branham (automatic) and Wilcox (final at-large team) in the field has bumped Christopher and Gilroy into Division II according to our projections. We had to move Branham down a spot to avoid a first-round matchup with league mate Oak Grove and Wilcox down a spot to avoid league mate Mountain View.

Lowest enrollment schools: Branham (1,730) and Presentation (1,668).


Presentation projects as the No. 13 seed in Division I. (Twitter @PresPanthers)

(1) ARCHBISHOP MITTY (2.50)          
           
(16) Wilcox (2.06)          
           
(8) SANTA TERESA (2.18)          
           
(9) Salinas (2.17)          
           
(5) LOS ALTOS (2.21)          
           
(12) North Salinas (2.11)          
           
(4) OAK GROVE (2.31)          
           
(13) Presentation (2.08)          
           
(6) SAN BENITO (2.18)          
           
(11) Piedmont Hills (2.14)          
           
(3) SANTA CLARA (2.40)          
           
(14) Branham (2.11)          
           
(7) ALVAREZ (2.18)          
           
(10) San Mateo (2.15)          
           
(2) MOUNTAIN VIEW (2.40)          
           
(15) Independence (1.89)          



DIVISION II: Finally, the remaining 16 teams as ranked by enrollment are placed in Division II.

MBL-Gabilan teams Christopher and Gilroy have dropped into Division II in the latest projection because Branham and Wilcox have taken spots in Division I. We had to move Mercy Burlingame down a spot to avoid a first-round matchup with league mate Notre Dame-Belmont.

Highest enrollment schools: Christopher (1,665) and Gilroy (1,663).


Menlo is projected as the No. 2 seed in Division II. (Menlo Athletics)

(1) HILLSDALE (2.65)          
           
(16) Mercy Burlingame (1.70)          
           
(8) NOTRE DAME-SALINAS (2.22)          
           
(9) Sobrato (2.21)          
           
(5) THE KING'S ACADEMY (2.30)          
           
(12) Carmel (2.14)          
           
(4) CHRISTOPHER (2.30)          
           
(13) Pacific Grove (2.10)          
           
(6) ARAGON (2.25)          
           
(11) Westmont (2.19)          
           
(3) GILROY (2.45)          
           
(14) Aptos (2.08)          
           
(7) SAN LORENZO VALLEY (2.25)          
           
(10) Half Moon Bay (2.20)          
           
(2) NOTRE DAME-BELMONT (2.55)          
           
(15) South San Francisco (1.64)          



As mentioned earlier, there are a total of 12 at-large teams included in the complete field of 40 CCS playoff teams. Here's a brief look at the those 12 at-large teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out if the season ended now.






BVAL-MH Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-4-0
18-11-0
10-4-0
15-10-0
9-5-0
16-8-0
9-5-0
15-12-0
8-6-0
17-12-0
7-7-0
11-14-0
2-12-0
7-17-0
1-13-0
3-24-0
BVAL-ST Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
13-1-0
19-5-0
10-4-0
20-8-0
9-5-0
14-10-0
7-7-0
11-12-0
7-7-0
11-16-0
6-9-0
10-17-0
4-11-0
7-19-2
1-13-0
1-19-0
BVAL-WV Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
18-3-0
18-4-0
17-4-0
17-4-0
16-3-2
16-4-2
9-10-2
9-10-2
9-11-1
9-11-1
7-14-0
8-18-0
4-16-1
4-17-1
1-20-0
1-21-0
MBL-Gabilan Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
12-0-0
23-5-0
8-4-0
24-4-0
7-5-0
25-6-0
7-5-0
18-10-0
5-7-0
12-15-0
2-10-0
9-15-0
1-11-0
9-16-0
MBL-Pacific Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
11-1-0
21-7-0
9-3-0
16-9-0
7-6-0
14-10-1
4-7-0
8-11-0
2-8-0
3-14-0
0-10-0
2-18-0
MTAL-MT Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
14-0-0
22-7-0
12-2-0
19-8-0
11-4-0
19-8-0
8-6-0
16-10-1
4-10-0
4-16-0
3-9-0
5-11-0
3-11-0
7-15-0
0-13-0
0-17-0
PAL-Bay Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
13-1-0
27-3-0
13-1-0
23-3-0
7-7-0
11-13-0
6-8-0
18-13-0
5-9-0
15-14-0
5-9-0
9-14-0
5-9-0
8-14-0
2-12-0
7-19-0
PAL-Ocean Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
11-1-0
16-9-0
7-5-0
8-14-0
6-6-0
8-11-0
4-8-0
6-12-0
3-9-0
5-12-0
0-12-0
0-12-0
SCCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
11-1-0
21-6-2
11-1-0
14-10-3
7-6-0
9-17-0
6-6-0
9-17-0
6-9-0
12-18-0
3-11-0
6-18-1
0-11-0
0-11-0
SCVAL-DA Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
9-3-0
12-14-0
8-4-0
20-9-0
8-4-0
21-11-0
7-5-0
15-11-0
6-6-0
15-11-0
3-9-0
10-15-0
1-11-0
4-21-0
WCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
9-1-0
23-9-0
8-2-0
24-6-0
6-4-0
20-9-0
4-6-0
20-13-0
3-7-0
12-13-0
0-10-0
3-14-0