P2P Softball CCS Playoff Projections
BVAL-Santa Teresa champ Silver Creek has surged into the Open Division playoffs according to our latest projections. (Tyler Khan/Prep2Prep)

Prep2Prep CCS Softball Playoff Projections

UPDATE 5/13/17 (FINAL)


Based on the latest information presented to Prep2Prep through games of May 12 - the final day of the regular season - we are releasing our projections for the 2017 Central Coast Section playoff tournaments. We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams that compete in the Central Coast Section, but it is possible that there are slight schedule variations for some teams.

The Central Coast Section has introduced an Open Division for softball beginning this year. The format is very similar to the setup for the CCS soccer playoffs, with eight teams chosen for the Open Division and the remaining 32 playoff qualifiers split into Division I and Division II based on enrollment.

The 5 "A" league champions plus the next three highest point-total getters will comprise an eight-team elite playoff field. The other 32 teams in the playoff field will be split according to enrollment with the top 16 in Division I and the rest of the teams in Division II.

Nothing has changed with regard to the automatic qualifiers, of which there are 28 spread out over the leagues as follows: BVAL (6), PAL (4), SCVAL (4), MBL (4), MTAL (3), WBAL (3), WCAL (2) and SCCAL (2).

The remaining 12 at-large teams are selected based on a point system that awards teams based on results over the entire season, including non-league play. To be considered for an at-large berth, teams must have at least a .500 record in either league play or overall. An average number of points per game is calculated based on the number of total games played, or 17 if a team played fewer than 17 games.

Leagues within CCS are designated as "A" (highest), "B" and "C". Wins against "A" teams count for 3 points; wins against "B" teams count for 2.5; and wins against "C" teams count for 2. Strip off one point from those totals in cases of ties, and two points for losses to respectively designed "A", "B" and "C" teams. Teams outside of CCS are considered "B" teams.

Finally, teams are awarded 2 points for playing an "A" league champion, 1.5 points for playing a "B" league champion and 1 point for playing a "C" league champion. Teams also receive 5 points for being an "A" league champion, 4 for being a "B" league champion and 3 for being a "C" league champion.

We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams that compete in the Central Coast Section, but it is possible that there are slight schedule variations for some teams. These projections are based on our best available information; if you would like to correct a team's result, please contact Prep2Prep via email or tweet us @Prep2PrepSports. You can also leave comments on our Facebook page.

For more details on the CCS point system, please click here.

One final update: when we removed all games from schedules for which we did not have the result, that changed a few point totals and in fact led to a change in our final team into the field - Alvarez over St. Ignatius.

Our earlier projection did not take into account that Mitty and St. Francis are declared co-champions in the WCAL based on Mitty winning the league tournament after St. Francis captured the regular-season title. This obviously affects the point total of any team that played those teams.

We have three missing scores for San Lorenzo Valley, which would obviously impact its CCS point total as well as potentially the SCCAL standings. If we get those results, we will update as necessary. UPDATE: we have been told that SLV won those three games, which means it tied Scotts Valley for the SCCAL title. We have made that change in the latest update.

Leland's 3-2 win over Pioneer on Friday - coupled with Santa Teresa's 7-2 loss to Oak Grove - created a three-way tie for the BVAL championship. The BVAL bylaws are a little unclear, but we believe Pioneer will be declared the representative to the Open Division by virtue of overall CCS power points. Of course, all three teams will earn automatic bids into the playoffs.

There was some drama on the final day of the BVAL-West Valley regular season as James Lick missed out on a chance for a league title by losing Independence, which wound up tied for first with Gunderson. The Grizzlies, however, own the tiebreaker by virtue of a 2-1 record against Indy.

Pacific Grove defeated Marina in the MTAL playoff to gain that league's third automatic bid. We have not yet received a result from the Mercy Burlingame-Crystal Springs Uplands playoff in the WBAL, so have assumed Mercy Burlingame in the playoffs for the time being.

South San Francisco and San Mateo tied for the PAL-Ocean title. Both teams lost only to each other, so by PAL bylaws South San Francisco gets the nod based on CCS points. We applied the same bylaw to Carlmont over Half Moon Bay in the PAL-Bay Division.

We will issue another update if any of our previous assumptions are confirmed to be incorrect.

Hare are a few assumptions:

ASSUMPTION 1: points are calculated on the assumption that an individual team will lose the rest of its games. The bonus points for playing a league champion are included in the calculation. In other words, the point total you see represents the minimum point total for a given team, based on the total number of games the team will play for the entire season.

ASSUMPTION 2: in calculating points awarded for playing league champions, points were split according to the number of teams currently tied for first place. For instance, per CCS rules, teams are awarded one point for playing a league champion; if a team played a team that is currently in a three-way tie for first, we credit the team 0.33 points. If two teams at the top of a league have not played the same number of games, we assume league champ based on points per game.

ASSUMPTION 3: in the first round, league mates are not matched up whenever possible as per CCS rules.

ASSUMPTION 4: teams will apply for CCS and we will use league bylaws to determine order of finish as applicable. For instance if two at-large teams apply for CCS from the same league, some league's bylaws mandate that the team that finished higher in the league standings must get in first whereas other leagues rank at-large teams based on CCS points. We are assuming no teams will pull out of consideration. If we cannot determine a league's bylaws, we will assume they rank by order of CCS points.

ASSUMPTION 5: some leagues hold a postseason tournament to fill out their allotment of automatic qualifiers. In those instances, we assumed the team(s) with the highest CCS point totals will receive the automatic bid.

NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.



OPEN DIVISION: San Benito (MBL-Gabilan), Mountain View (SCVAL-DA) and St. Francis (WCAL) won their respective "A" divisions. As noted above, we believe Pioneer will win the tiebreaker over Santa Teresa and Leland in the BVAL-MH and Carlmont over Half Moon Bay in the PAL-Bay.

The at-large berths belong to Archbishop Mitty (2.77), Half Moon Bay (2.74) and Silver Creek (2.62), edging out Salinas (2.52) and Notre Dame-Salinas (2.51) for the final spot.

We had to move St. Francis down a spot to avoid a first-round matchup with Mitty.


Mitty is in line for an at-large bid to the Open Division playoffs. (Macy Wagner/Prep2Prep)

(1) CARLMONT (3.12)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Open Div. Champ

(8) Mountain View (2.38)

(4) ARCHBISHOP MITTY (2.77)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) Silver Creek (2.62)

(3) HALF MOON BAY (2.81)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) St. Francis (2.68)

(2) SAN BENITO (2.94)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) Pioneer (2.44)




DIVISION I: After the eight top teams are placed in the Open, the 16 teams with the highest enrollment are placed in Division I with the remaining 16 teams placed in Division II.

We had to move Monta Vista down a spot to avoid a first-round matchup with Homestead.

Lowest enrollment schools: Aragon (1,593) and Presentation (1,520).


Branham is projected as the No. 12 seed in Division I. (Tyler Khan/Prep2Prep)

(1) SALINAS (2.52)          
           
(16) Aragon (1.89)          
           
(8) MILPITAS (2.29)          
           
(9) Christopher (2.28)          
           
(5) HOMESTEAD (2.31)          
           
(12) Branham (2.20)          
           
(4) SANTA TERESA (2.34)          
           
(13) Monta Vista (2.05)          
           
(6) VALLEY CHRISTIAN (2.30)          
           
(11) Santa Clara (2.22)          
           
(3) LOS GATOS (2.44)          
           
(14) Alvarez (2.05)          
           
(7) PRESENTATION (2.30)          
           
(10) Leland (2.24)          
           
(2) WATSONVILLE (2.48)          
           
(15) Palo Alto (2.00)          



DIVISION II: Finally, the remaining 16 teams as ranked by enrollment are placed in Division II.

Highest enrollment schools: Sobrato (1,484) and Hillsdale (1,427).


Sobrato is projected as the No. 8 seed in Division II. (Macy Wagner/Prep2Prep)

(1) NOTRE DAME-SALINAS (2.51)          
           
(16) Mercy Burlingame (1.23)          
           
(8) SOBRATO (2.13)          
           
(9) Capuchino (2.13)          
           
(5) SAN LORENZO VALLEY (2.30)          
           
(12) South San Francisco (1.92)          
           
(4) NOTRE DAME-BELMONT (2.30)          
           
(13) Santa Catalina (1.88)          
           
(6) SARATOGA (2.28)          
           
(11) Scotts Valley (1.95)          
           
(3) HILLSDALE (2.32)          
           
(14) Gunderson (1.79)          
           
(7) CARMEL (2.23)          
           
(10) Pacific Grove (2.10)          
           
(2) LIVE OAK (2.37)          
           
(15) The King's Academy (1.72)          



As mentioned earlier, there are a total of 12 at-large teams included in the complete field of 40 CCS playoff teams. Here's a brief look at the those 12 at-large teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out if the season ended now.






BVAL-MH Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-4-0
19-11-0
10-4-0
15-10-0
10-4-0
16-11-0
9-5-0
16-8-0
7-7-0
17-12-0
7-7-0
11-14-0
2-12-0
7-17-0
1-13-0
3-24-0
BVAL-ST Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
13-1-0
19-5-0
10-4-0
20-8-0
9-5-0
14-10-0
7-7-0
10-13-0
7-7-0
11-16-0
6-9-0
10-17-0
4-11-0
7-19-2
1-13-0
1-19-0
BVAL-WV Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
18-3-0
18-4-0
18-3-0
18-4-0
17-4-0
17-4-0
10-11-0
10-11-0
9-12-0
9-12-0
7-14-0
8-18-0
4-17-0
4-18-0
1-20-0
1-21-0
MBL-Gabilan Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
12-0-0
23-6-0
8-4-0
24-4-0
7-5-0
25-6-0
7-5-0
18-10-0
5-7-0
12-15-0
2-10-0
11-13-0
1-11-0
9-16-0
MBL-Pacific Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
11-1-0
21-7-0
9-3-0
16-9-0
7-6-0
14-10-1
4-7-0
8-11-0
2-8-0
3-13-0
0-10-0
2-17-0
MTAL-MT Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
14-0-0
22-7-0
12-2-0
19-8-0
11-4-0
19-8-0
8-6-0
17-10-0
4-10-0
4-16-0
3-9-0
5-11-0
3-11-0
6-15-0
0-13-0
0-17-0
MTAL-Coastal Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
12-0-0
18-5-0
0-5-0
0-5-0
0-5-0
0-5-0
PAL-Bay Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
13-1-0
23-3-0
13-1-0
27-4-0
7-7-0
11-13-0
6-8-0
19-12-0
5-9-0
15-14-0
5-9-0
9-14-0
5-9-0
8-14-0
2-12-0
7-19-0
PAL-Ocean Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
11-1-0
16-9-0
7-5-0
8-14-0
6-6-0
8-11-0
4-8-0
6-12-0
3-9-0
4-13-0
0-12-0
0-12-0
SCCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
11-1-0
18-5-2
11-1-0
13-11-3
7-6-0
9-17-0
6-6-0
9-17-0
6-9-0
12-17-0
3-11-0
6-19-0
0-11-0
0-11-0
SCVAL-DA Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
9-3-0
12-14-0
8-4-0
20-9-0
8-4-0
21-11-0
7-5-0
15-11-0
6-6-0
15-11-0
3-9-0
9-16-0
1-11-0
4-21-0
SCVAL-EC Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
11-1-0
16-3-2
11-1-0
19-6-1
8-4-0
12-6-0
6-6-0
11-13-0
4-8-0
6-12-0
2-10-0
6-20-0
0-12-0
0-16-0
WBAL-Foothill Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
12-0-0
21-8-0
8-4-0
11-12-0
6-6-0
11-9-0
4-8-0
8-15-0
3-9-0
6-14-0
0-12-0
0-16-0
WBAL-Skyline Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
4-1-0
5-1-0
8-3-0
9-12-0
3-2-0
3-5-0
4-5-0
8-6-0
1-3-0
1-4-0
0-6-0
0-7-0
WCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
9-1-0
23-9-0
8-2-0
25-6-0
6-4-0
20-9-0
4-6-0
20-13-0
3-7-0
12-13-0
0-10-0
3-14-0