P2P Softball CCS Playoff Projections
Piedmont Hills will claim an automatic bid to the CCS playoffs despite a late-season skid. (Macy Wagner/Prep2Prep)

Prep2Prep CCS Softball Playoff Projections

UPDATED 5/14/16 4:00 PM


Based on the latest information presented to Prep2Prep through games of May 13, we are releasing our projections for the 2016 Central Coast Section playoff tournaments.

This is technically our final update but if new information comes along, we will run periodic updates throughout the day.

We learned of changes to Leland's schedule that has major impact on the overall brackets. Leland is now eligible for an at-large bid and based on our numbers, the Chargers have overtaken Pacific Grove for the final at-large bid. Not only that, Leland's inclusion in Division II drops powerful Hillsdale to Division III, where we have the PAL-Bay champs as the No. 1 seed.

Upon closer inspection of the BVAL bylaws, it turns out that the BVAL sends three teams from the Mt. Hamilton Division, two from the Santa Teresa and one from the West Valley automatically *unless* the fourth place "A" league team has a record under .500. Otherwise, the fourth-place team from the "A" league gets an automatic bid.

In this case, Leigh and Live Oak are tied for third and fourth and both are well above .500 so the automatic bid transfers to the Santa Teresa Division. Leigh and Live Oak are so deadlocked that we had to flip a virtual coin to determine Leigh as the automatic bid (both teams should get in comfortably). This will negatively impact teams on the bubble.

The wild Santa Teresa race came down to the wire with Piedmont Hills and Oak Grove sharing the title. Based on the tiebreaker, we had Piedmont Hills winning, but both teams would receive automatic bids anyway. Branham's remarkable run from a 2-11 record fell short, as the Bruins lost to Willow Glen on the final day of the season to finish out of the running at 13-14.

Watsonville beat Alisal Friday to wrap up the outright MBL-Pacific championship.

In the MTAL, Santa Catalina defeated Trinity Christian Friday in a playoff for the third automatic bid. Trinity Christian is the champ of the MTAL-Coastal. Marina finished second in the MTAL-Coastal and is fighting for one of the final at-large bids, which would be the first in school history.

At this writing, we have not received a result from the WBAL play-in game, so we are assuming Mercy Burlingame for the third automatic bid from the WBAL.

Here's a quick overview: a total of 39 teams spread out over three enrollment-based divisions of 13 teams each qualify for the CCS Softball Playoffs. Of the 39, 28 receive automatic bids based on their position in their league standings as follows: BVAL (6), PAL (4), SCVAL (4), MBL (4), MTAL (3), WBAL (3), WCAL (2) and SCCAL (2).

The remaining 11 at-large teams are selected based on a point system that awards teams based on results over the entire season, including non-league play. To be considered for an at-large berth, teams must have at least a .500 record in either league play or overall. An average number of points per game is calculated based on the number of total games played, or 17 if a team played fewer than 17 games.

Leagues within CCS are designated as "A" (highest), "B" and "C". Wins against "A" teams count for 3 points; wins against "B" teams count for 2.5; and wins against "C" teams count for 2. Strip off one point from those totals in cases of ties, and two points for losses to respectively designed "A", "B" and "C" teams. Teams outside of CCS are considered "B" teams.

Finally, teams are awarded 2 points for playing an "A" league champion, 1.5 points for playing a "B" league champion and 1 point for playing a "C" league champion but ONLY for non-league games. Teams also receive 5 points for being an "A" league champion, 4 for being a "B" league champion and 3 for being a "C" league champion.

We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams that compete in the Central Coast Section, but it is possible that there are slight schedule variations for some teams. These projections are based on our best available information; if you would like to correct a team's result, please contact Prep2Prep via email or tweet us @Prep2PrepSports. You can also leave comments on our Facebook page.

For more details on the CCS point system, please click here.

Because the season is not quite over, we must make a few assumptions:

ASSUMPTION 1: points are calculated on the assumption that an individual team will lose the rest of its games. The bonus points for playing a league champion are included in the calculation. In other words, the point total you see represents the minimum point total for a given team, based on the total number of games the team will play for the entire season.

ASSUMPTION 2: in calculating points awarded for playing league champions, points were split according to the number of teams currently tied for first place. For instance, per CCS rules, teams are awarded one point for playing a league champion; if a team played a team that is currently in a three-way tie for first, we credit the team 0.33 points. If two teams at the top of a league have not played the same number of games, we assume league champ based on points per game.

ASSUMPTION 3: in the first round, league mates are not matched up whenever possible as per CCS rules.

ASSUMPTION 4: teams will apply for CCS and we will use league bylaws to determine order of finish as applicable. For instance if two at-large teams apply for CCS from the same league, some league's bylaws mandate that the team that finished higher in the league standings must get in first whereas other leagues rank at-large teams based on CCS points. We are assuming no teams will pull out of consideration. If we cannot determine a league's bylaws, we will assume they rank by order of CCS points.

ASSUMPTION 5: some leagues hold a postseason tournament to fill out their allotment of automatic qualifiers. In those instances, we assumed the team(s) with the highest CCS point totals will receive the automatic bid.

NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.



DIVISION I: Thirty-nine teams qualify for the CCS playoffs, with the top 13 schools by enrollment placed in Division I.

Watsonville (1,927) and Santa Clara (1,905) are the smallest enrollment schools in Division I so they could drop to Division II.


Los Altos is projected as the No. 7 seed in Division I. (Macy Wagner/Prep2Prep)

     
(1) SAN BENITO (2.94)    
       
     
(8) WATSONVILLE (2.17)
       
       
(9) Piedmont Hills (2.10)
     
     
(4) NORTH SALINAS (2.42)
     
     
(13) Sequoia (2.00)
       
       
(5) ALVAREZ (2.29)
     
     
(12) Monta Vista (2.05)
   

       
  (2) HOMESTEAD (2.78)      
         
         
(7) LOS ALTOS (2.24)        
         
(10) Evergreen Valley (2.09)        
         
  (3) CARLMONT (2.70)      
         
         
(6) SANTA CLARA (2.25)        
         
(11) Los Gatos (2.07)        
         
         
         



DIVISION II: After the 13 teams with the highest enrollment are placed in Division I, the next 13 teams by enrollment are placed in Division II.

Oak Grove (1,896) and Mountain View (1,875) are the highest enrollment schools in Division II; Mt. Pleasant (1,435) and Aptos (1,411) are the lowest.

We moved Leland down a spot to avoid a first-round matchup with league mate Mt. Pleasant.


Pioneer is looking like the No. 1 seed in the Division II playoffs. (Christine Bertacini/Prep2Prep)

     
(1) PIONEER (3.14)    
       
     
(8) CHRISTOPHER (2.18)
       
       
(9) St. Ignatius (2.10)
     
     
(4) LEIGH (2.43)
     
     
(13) Oak Grove (1.91)
       
       
(5) VALLEY CHRISTIAN (2.38)
     
     
(12) Leland (1.99)
   

       
  (2) ARCHBISHOP MITTY (2.87)      
         
         
(7) PRESENTATION (2.25)        
         
(10) Woodside (2.10)        
         
  (3) MOUNTAIN VIEW (2.44)      
         
         
(6) MT. PLEASANT (2.33)        
         
(11) Aptos (1.96)        
         
         
         


DIVISION III: Finally, the remaining 13 teams as ranked by enrollment are placed in Division III.

Hillsdale (1,386) and Saratoga (1,305) are the highest enrollment schools in Division III.

     
(1) HILLSDALE (2.77)    
       
     
(8) SCOTTS VALLEY (2.09)
       
       
     
     
(4) NOTRE DAME-BELMONT (2.41)
     
     
(13) Castilleja (1.45)
       
       
(5) NOTRE DAME-SALINAS (2.34)
     
     
(12) Mercy Burlingame (1.53)
   

       
  (2) HALF MOON BAY (2.66)      
         
         
(7) SARATOGA (2.15)        
         
(10) Santa Catalina (2.02)        
         
  (3) CARMEL (2.48)      
         
         
(6) LIVE OAK (2.21)        
         
(11) The King's Academy (1.97)        
         
         
         


As mentioned earlier, there are a total of 11 at-large teams included in the complete field of 39 CCS playoff teams. Here's a brief look at the those 11 at-large teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out if the season ended now.







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