Prep2Prep CCS Playoff Projections
Mountain View is projected as the No. 6 seed in Division 1. (@coachpanos/Twitter)

Prep2Prep CCS Girls Soccer Playoff Projections

UPDATED 2/20/2020, 11:45 PM


We present the Central Coast Section Girls Soccer Playoff Projections based on the latest information available to Prep2Prep through the matches of February 19. We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams that compete in the Central Coast Section.

These projections are based on our best available information; if you would like to correct a team's result, please do so directly on that team's Prep2Prep page, contact Prep2Prep via our Contact Us page or tweet us @Prep2PrepSports. You can also leave comments on our Facebook page.

CCS has not made any changes to the teams that make up Open Division for girls soccer. The 4 "A" league champions plus the next four highest point-total getters will comprise an eight-team elite playoff field. The only "B" teams eligible are those in divisions that don't have an "A" league, but they are required to opt up prior to the seeding meeting. The other 32 teams in the playoff field will be split according to their CCS point totals with the top 8 in Division 1, the next 8 in Division 2, the next 8 in Division 3 and the final 8 in Division 4.

For the formula used to calculate CCS points, please click here. Keep in mind that only a team's final 18 games count toward CCS point-total calculations. Also, a team must have at least a .500 record in league or overall to be considered.

In the first round, teams from the same league cannot face each other, so seedings are adjusted to avoid such matchups.

As we approach the final full week of the regular season, we will focus on which teams have clinched a CCS berth, which teams are closing in and which teams are on the bubble and still have some work to do. The best way to do so is to go through league by league.

BVAL-MOUNT HAMILTON

CLINCHED (5): Leigh, Pioneer, Live Oak, Leland, Piedmont Hills

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (1): Westmont

NOTE: Even though Piedmont Hills finished fifth in the BVAL-MH, the Pirates have a very high CCS point total (51) and right now project in the Open Division despite a 2-5-3 league record. Leland (44) has the lowest point total among BVAL at-large candidates, but that should be plenty enough to get the Chargers in.

BVAL-MT. UMUNHUM

CLINCHED (2): Branham, Prospect

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (4): Lincoln, Willow Glen, Gunderson, Andrew Hill

NOTE: Branham knocked off Prospect 1-0 to claim the inaugural BVAL-MU title and automatic bid to CCS. Prospect (44) will get in regardless of whether it defeats Del Mar Wednesday night in a playoff for the final BVAL automatic bid.

BVAL-SANTA TERESA

CLINCHED (1): Ann Sobrato

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (3): Evergreen Valley, Santa Teresa, Silver Creek, San Jose

NOTE: Ann Sobrato has clinched the BVAL-ST championship and automatic bid. Evergreen Valley lost in overtime to Prospect in a BVAL play-in game and will not have enough CCS points to qualify as an at-large team.

BVAL-WEST VALLEY

CLINCHED (0): none

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (6): Del Mar, Oak Grove, Yerba Buena, Mt. Pleasant, James Lick, Independence

NOTE: Del Mar lost 3-0 to Prospect to end its hopes for a CCS playoff berth.

PAL-BAY

CLINCHED (5): Carlmont, Woodside, Sequoia, Burlingame, Menlo-Atherton

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (2): Aragon, Terra Nova

NOTE: Carlmont, Woodside and Sequoia have clinched the three automatic bids from the PAL-Bay. We project Burlingame (42.5) in the field while Menlo-Atherton (41) currently projects as the final team in.

PAL-OCEAN

CLINCHED (3): Capuchino, South San Francisco, Hillsdale

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (3): Mills, San Mateo, Half Moon Bay

NOTE: Capuchino has clinched the league title and automatic bid. South San Francisco is in excellent shape and Hillsdale is one of the final few teams in the field in this projection. Hillsdale's win over Capuchino leaves them with 43.5 points which should be enough to get in.

PCAL-ARROYO

CLINCHED (0): none

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (6): Marina, York, Anzar, Oakwood, Trinity Christian, Ceiba Prep

NOTE: Marina lost to Monte Vista Christian in a one-game playoff for a PCAL automatic bid, so no teams from this league will participate in the CCS playoffs. playoff.

PCAL-CYPRESS

CLINCHED (1): Carmel

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (5): Soledad, Seaside, Notre Dame-Salinas, St. Francis SCP, Greenfield

NOTE: Carmel has sealed the automatic bid from this division. Soledad lost to Pajaro Valley in a one-game playoff for an automatic PCAL bid.

PCAL-GABILAN

CLINCHED (3): Christopher, Salinas, Alisal

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (3): San Benito, Watsonville, North Monterey County

NOTE: Christopher, Salinas and Alisal earned the top three finishes and automatic bids from the PCAL-Gabilan. The rest of the teams are nowhere near the cutoff line to get in.

PCAL-MISSION

CLINCHED (2): Gilroy, Monte Vista Christian

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (4): Pacific Collegiate, Alvarez, North Salinas, King City

NOTE: Gilroy won the league title and as expected, Monte Vista Christian defeated Marina in a playoff for another PCAL automatic bid.

PCAL-SANTA LUCIA

CLINCHED (1): Pajaro Valley

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (6): Monterey, Pacific Grove, Gonzales, Santa Catalina, Robert Louis Stevenson, Rancho San Juan

NOTE: Pajaro Valley beat Soledad to earn an automatic bid to the CCS playoffs.

PSAL-NORTH

CLINCHED (1): Nueva School

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (5): Summit Shasta, Design Tech, Summit Prep, Cindy Avitia, Summit Tahoma

NOTE: Nueva School has dominated this one-bid league and will be a fascinating matchup in the CCS playoffs.

PSAL-SOUTH

CLINCHED (1): Latino College Prep

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (6): Luis Valdez Leadership, Thomas More, KIPP San Jose Collegiate, Cristo Rey, Downtown College Prep, Downtown College Prep-Alum Rock

NOTE: Latino College Prep and Luis Valdez Leadership finished tied for first, but LCP gets the tiebreaker based on head-to-head results.

SCCAL

CLINCHED (2): Aptos, Santa Cruz

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (4): Scotts Valley, Soquel, Harbor, San Lorenzo Valley

NOTE: The top two teams during the regular season - Aptos and Santa Cruz - reached the final of the SCCAL tournament, so there will be no additional teams in the field from the SCCAL.

SCVAL-DE ANZA

CLINCHED (4): Los Gatos, Homestead, Mountain View, Palo Alto

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (3): Santa Clara, Saratoga, Los Altos

NOTE: Palo Alto defeated Santa Clara 3-0 to eliminate the Bruins - as well as Sacred Heart Cathedral.

SCVAL-EL CAMINO

CLINCHED (1): Gunn

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (6): Fremont, Monta Vista, Wilcox, Milpitas, Cupertino, Lynbrook

NOTE: Gunn won the league title and no other teams will have enough CCS points to qualify.

WBAL-FOOTHILL

CLINCHED (4): Notre Dame-Belmont, Menlo School, Sacred Heart Prep, Mercy Burlingame

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (2): Woodside Priory, The King's Academy

NOTE: Mercy Burlingame defeated Harker for the final automatic bid from the WBAL.

WBAL-SKYLINE

CLINCHED (0): none

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (7): Harker School, Castilleja, Notre Dame-San Jose, Crystal Springs Uplands, Pinewood, Eastside College Prep, Mercy San Francisco

NOTE: Harker clinched the WBAL-Skyline title but lost to Mercy Burlingame in a one-game playoff for the opportunity to play in the CCS playoffs.

WCAL

CLINCHED (4): Archbishop Mitty, Saint Francis, Saint Ignatius, Presentation

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (2): Sacred Heart Cathedral, Valley Christian

NOTE: We have Sacred Heart Cathedral as the first team out.

TOTAL:

CLINCHED (40)

CLOSING IN (0)

BUBBLE (0)

LONGSHOT (0)

OUT (78)

NOTE: Barring any last-minute surprises, we believe this represents the 40 teams that will compete in the CCS playoffs.

Here are a few assumptions for the process as a whole:

ASSUMPTION 1: points are calculated on the assumption that an individual team will lose the rest of its games. The bonus points for playing a league champion are included in the calculation. In other words, the point total you see represents the minimum point total for a given team as of today. We determine league champions based on points per game, which is especially relevant in cases where the teams have not played the same number of games.

ASSUMPTION 2: in calculating points awarded for playing league champions, points were split according to the number of teams currently tied for first place. For instance, per CCS rules, teams are awarded bonus points for playing a league champion; if a team played a team that is currently in a three-way tie for first, we credit the team one-third of the points. If two teams at the top of a league have not played the same number of games, we assume league champ based on points per game.

ASSUMPTION 3: for out-of-section teams that we were unable to find accurate records, we assumed them to be "B" teams and not division champs.

ASSUMPTION 4: teams will apply for CCS and we will use league bylaws to determine order of finish as applicable. For instance if two at-large teams apply for CCS from the same league, some league's bylaws mandate that the team that finished higher in the league standings must get in first whereas other leagues rank at-large teams based on CCS points. We are assuming no teams will pull out of consideration.

ASSUMPTION 5: the PCAL holds two playoffs to determine the final automatic bids pitting the second-place team in the Cypress against the champion of the Santa Lucia Division and the second-place team in the Mission against the champion of the Arroyo Division. For now we will choose the team that is rated higher in the Prep2Prep computer rankings.

ASSUMPTION 6: the BVAL has changed its format. With four 6-team divisions, it has created a change in how the six automatic playoff berths are allocated. The BVAL-Mount Hamilton Divsion gets 3 automatic bids and the newly formed BVAL-Mount Umunhum gets 1 along with the BVAL-Santa Teresa.

The final automatic bid goes to a playoff, where the second-place finishers in the Mount Umunhum and Santa Teresa square off, with the winner meeting the champion of the BVAL-West Valley Division. We will simply project the team with the highest CCS point total to win the playoff for now.

ASSUMPTION 7: the WBAL holds a playoff between the fourth-place team from the Foothill Division and the champion of the Skyline Division for the fourth automatic bid for the league. We will project the higher ranked team in the Prep2Prep computer rankings.

NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.

OPEN DIVISION: All four "A" league champs have clinched their respective titles: Leigh (BVAL-Mt. Hamilton), Carlmont (PAL-Bay), Los Gatos (SCVAL) and Archbishop Mitty (WCAL).

The four champs are joined in the Open field by at-large teams Saint Francis (58.5 CCS points), Woodside (54.5), Live Oak (53) and Piedmont Hills (51). At this time, we are assuming Christopher (60) and Aptos (53) will not opt up.

A new bylaw states that teams in the Open Division will be seeded subjectively. We will make our best attempt to mimic what we think the committee would do. It seems pretty clear that the winner of the WCAL regular season will come in as the No. 1 seed, with the runner-up no lower than No. 3. We then expect the champions of the PAL-Bay and BVAL-Mount Hamilton to be seeded fourth and fifth, in some order.

Ariel Mbumba and Prospect are currently the No. 5 seed in the Open Division. (Ryan McCarthy/Prep2Prep)

ARCHBISHOP MITTY (65.5)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Open Div. Champ

Piedmont Hills (51)

CARLMONT (54)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

Leigh (51.5)

ST. FRANCIS (58.5)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

Woodside (54.5)

LOS GATOS (56.5)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

Live Oak (53)



DIVISION 1: After the eight top teams are placed in the Open, the 8 teams with the next highest point totals are placed in Division 1.


Jack Cassell-McClellan and Branham are currently the No. 7 seed in Division 1. (Ryan McCarthy/Prep2Prep)

CHRISTOPHER (60)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. 1 Champ

Notre Dame-Belmont (48)

ST. IGNATIUS (51)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

Mountain View (50.5)

BRANHAM (52)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

Ann Sobrato (49.5)

APTOS (53)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

Gunn (49.5)



DIVISION 2: The next 8 teams as ranked by CCS point total are placed in Division 2.


St. Francis is currently the No. 2 seed in Division 2. (Dennis Putian/Special to Prep2Prep)

CAPUCHINO (47)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. 2 Champ

Presentation (43.5)

SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO (45.5)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

Sequoia (45)

SANTA CRUZ (45.5)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

Leland (44)

HOMESTEAD (46)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

Prospect (44)



DIVISION 3: The next 8 teams as ranked by CCS point total are placed in Division 3.


Leigh is currently the No. 5 seed in Division 3 (Elena Dubocanin/Prep2Prep)

GILROY (43.5)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. 3 Champ

Menlo School (41.5)

HILLSDALE (43.5)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

Palo Alto (43)

MONTE VISTA CHRISTIAN (43.5)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

Burlingame (42.5)

PIONEER (43.5)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

Carmel (42)



DIVISION 4: The final 8 teams as ranked by CCS point total are placed in Division 4.


Leigh is currently the No. 3 seed in Division 4. (Elena Dubocanin/Prep2Prep)

MENLO-ATHERTON (41)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. 4 Champ

Latino College Prep (31)

SACRED HEART PREP (37)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

Nueva School (33.25)

ALISAL (37.25)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

Pajaro Valley (33)

SALINAS (38)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

Mercy Burlingame (33)



There are a total of 9 at-large teams included in the complete field of 40 CCS playoff teams. Here's a brief look at the list of at-large teams, including the last five teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out if the season ended now.





WCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
9-1-0
18-1-3
6-2-2
14-2-4
5-2-3
9-4-6
2-6-2
8-9-4
0-10-0
4-14-2
SCVAL-DA Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
9-1-2
15-2-4
7-2-3
12-5-3
7-3-2
12-5-4
4-5-3
7-6-7
3-4-5
4-7-8
2-10-0
3-12-2
1-8-3
1-12-5
SCVAL-EC Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
12-0-0
15-3-2
8-3-1
10-7-2
5-4-3
7-8-5
4-6-2
7-11-2
3-6-3
3-10-7
2-7-3
6-10-4
1-9-2
2-14-2
BVAL-MH Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
6-0-4
11-4-5
5-4-1
11-7-3
4-2-4
9-5-5
3-3-4
5-8-7
2-5-3
8-6-6
0-6-4
1-8-8
BVAL-ST Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
7-0-3
12-4-4
4-1-5
5-6-7
4-6-0
5-10-0
2-5-2
8-7-2
0-8-1
2-12-1
BVAL-WV Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-0-0
13-7-0
8-2-0
8-4-0
4-4-1
4-7-1
2-6-2
2-12-2
2-7-1
3-11-2
1-8-0
1-9-0
PAL-Bay Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
9-2-1
14-4-3
8-2-2
13-4-2
6-3-3
9-4-6
5-4-3
7-7-5
4-3-5
10-4-6
2-9-1
5-10-2
0-11-1
3-14-1
PAL-Ocean Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
8-1-1
14-3-4
8-2-0
14-4-3
4-6-0
7-12-0
2-8-0
4-11-0
0-10-0
2-15-1
PCAL-Cypress Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-0-0
16-3-1
7-2-1
11-6-2
6-4-0
9-7-2
3-6-1
4-12-2
1-6-3
2-11-3
0-9-1
1-13-2
PCAL-Gabilan Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
9-0-1
15-1-3
6-2-2
11-5-4
5-5-0
13-5-2
4-5-1
4-12-3
4-6-0
6-9-3
0-10-0
1-13-1
PCAL-Mission Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
8-1-1
14-6-1
3-3-4
4-9-6
1-5-4
4-9-6
0-8-2
2-10-3
PCAL-Santa Lucia Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-1-1
13-4-1
6-3-3
8-4-4
5-3-4
6-9-5
5-4-3
6-5-3
4-5-3
7-9-3
4-8-0
5-10-1
1-11-0
5-11-0
SCCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
8-1-1
16-3-2
7-1-2
14-3-5
3-3-4
5-8-6
3-4-3
11-7-4
2-7-1
2-13-3