P2P CCS Playoff Projections
Leland is battling the .500 requirement to reach the CCS playoffs. (Connor Sochocki/Prep2Prep)

Prep2Prep CCS Girls Soccer Playoff Projections

FINAL UPDATE 2/17/2018


We present the latest Central Coast Section Girls Soccer Playoff Projections based on the latest information available to Prep2Prep through the matches we have results for through February 16. We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams that compete in the Central Coast Section. These projections are based on our best available information; if you would like to correct a team's result, please do so directly on that team's Prep2Prep page, contact Prep2Prep via our Contact Us page or tweet us @Prep2PrepSports. You can also leave comments on our Facebook page.

CCS has implemented an Open Division for girls soccer. The 5 "A" league champions plus the next three highest point-total getters will comprise an eight-team elite playoff field. The only "B" teams eligible are those in standalone leagues, but they are required to opt up prior to the seeding meeting. The other 32 teams in the playoff field will be split according to enrollment with the top 16 in Division 1 and the rest of the teams in Division 2.

For the formula used to calculate CCS points, please click here. Keep in mind that only a team's final 18 games count toward CCS point-total calculations. Also, a team must have at least a .500 record in league or overall to be considered. Higher-seeded teams host in the first round except in the case when the lower-seeded team is a division champion and the higher-seeded team is not.

This update includes information from St. Ignatius, which pointed out that teams cannot get bonus points for playing San Francisco AAA Division leader Lowell. This results in a four-point loss for St. Ignatius and Sacred Heart Cathedral.

Here is a look at all playoff contenders league by league:

BVAL

Automatic: Pioneer, Sobrato and Leigh are locked in from the BVAL-MH as is Gunderson as the lone representative from the BVAL-WV. Live Oak and Prospect are the automatic qualifiers from the BVAL-ST after Prospect fought for a 1-1 draw against Del Mar.

At-large: Leland (5-6-7, 4-4-6 BVAL-MH, 43.5 CCS points) got the draw it needed at Willow Glen to secure an at-large berth. Piedmont Hills (40.5) is also in.

MBL

Automatic: Christopher, Salinas and San Benito have locked up automatic spots from the MBL-Gabilan and Alisal has won the MBL-Pacific to account for the league's four automatic bids.

At-large: There are no contenders for at-large spots in this league.

MTAL

Automatic: Pacific Collegiate and Pacific Grove have clinched MTAL auto bids. Carmel defeated Anzar 3-1 for the third MTAL spot.

At-large: There are no contenders for at-large spots in this division.

PAL

Automatic: Menlo-Atherton, Woodside and Carlmont claimed the three automatic bids from the PAL-Bay with South San Francisco taking the honors in the PAL-Ocean for the remaining two PAL-Bay automatic bids.

At-large: Terra Nova (47) is locked in. Burlingame fell just short of the .500 requirement. El Camino (37.5) benefitted from Mercy Burlingame's win over Sacred Heart Prep in the WBAL play-in game to claim the final at-large berth.

PSAL

Automatic: Latino College Prep secured the automatic bid with a win against Downtown College Prep.

At-large: There are no contenders for at-large spots in this division.

SCCAL

Automatic: Aptos and Scotts Valley own the automatic bids in this league.

At-large: Soquel (47) and Santa Cruz (42) are locks.

SCVAL

Automatic: Mountain View, Palo Alto and Los Gatos have clinched automatic bids from the SCVAL-DA and Fremont has clinched the SCVAL-EC.

At-large: Homestead (49.5) is a lock. Gunn (37.5) will likely fall just short of an at-large bid.

WBAL

Automatic: Notre Dame-Belmont, Menlo and Woodside Priory have earned automatic bids. Mercy Burlingame defeated Sacred Heart Prep in a play-in game for the fourth automatic bid.

At-large: There are no contenders for at-large spots in this division.

WCAL

Automatic: Mitty and Presentation are the automatic qualifiers from the WCAL.

At-large: St. Ignatius (46.5), St. Francis (45.5) and Sacred Heart Cathedral (39.5) are in. SHC plays Valley Christian Saturday morning in a match that will affects its point total but not its seeding.

In the first round, teams from the same league cannot face each other, so seedings are adjusted to avoid such matchups. Also first- and second-place teams from the same league cannot be placed in the same side of the bracket so we avoid those situations as well.

First, a few assumptions:

ASSUMPTION 1: points are calculated on the assumption that an individual team will lose the rest of its games. The bonus points for playing a league champion are included in the calculation. In other words, the point total you see represents the minimum point total for a given team as of today. We determine league champions based on points per game, which is especially relevant in cases where the teams have not played the same number of games.

ASSUMPTION 2: in calculating points awarded for playing league champions, points were split according to the number of teams currently tied for first place. For instance, per CCS rules, teams are awarded bonus points for playing a league champion; if a team played a team that is currently in a three-way tie for first, we credit the team one-third of the points. If two teams at the top of a league have not played the same number of games, we assume league champ based on points per game.

ASSUMPTION 3: for out-of-section teams that we were unable to find accurate records, we assumed them to be "B" teams and not division champs.

ASSUMPTION 4: teams will apply for CCS and we will use league bylaws to determine order of finish as applicable. For instance if two at-large teams apply for CCS from the same league, some league's bylaws mandate that the team that finished higher in the league standings must get in first whereas other leagues rank at-large teams based on CCS points. We are assuming no teams will pull out of consideration.

ASSUMPTION 5: the MTAL hold a playoff to determine the final automatic bid. In the MTAL, it's the third-place team in the Mission Trail against the champion of the Coastal Division. Because the team from the higher league has nearly always won this game in the past, we assume that team gets the automatic bid.

NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.

OPEN DIVISION: Pioneer (BVAL-MH), Menlo-Atherton (PAL-Bay), Aptos (SCCAL), Mountain View (SCVAL-De Anza) and Archbishop Mitty (WCAL) are the "A" league champs and will be in the Open. The at-large Open teams are Palo Alto (56), Sobrato (55 CCS points) and Presentation (54).


Pioneer won the BVAL-Mount Hamilton Division and will host a first-round Open Division match. (Connor Sochocki/Prep2Prep)

(1) ARCHBISHOP MITTY (67.5)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Open Div. Champ

(8) Menlo-Atherton (51)

(4) PIONEER (56.5)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) Palo Alto (56)

(3) APTOS (56.5)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) Sobrato (55)

(2) MOUNTAIN VIEW (64)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) Presentation (54)




DIVISION 1: After the eight top teams are placed in the Open, the 16 teams with the highest enrollment are placed in Division 1 with the remaining 16 teams placed in Division 2.

Fremont should get the No. 1 seed after finishing the season with a win over Milpitas. We had to move Piedmont Hills down a spot to avoid a first-round matchup with Leigh.

Lowest enrollment schools: St. Ignatius (1,460) and South San Francisco (1,398).


Leigh is projected as the No. 4 seed in Division 1. (Elena Dubocanin/Prep2Prep)

(1) FREMONT (51)          
           
(16) San Benito (29)          
           
(8) CARLMONT (45.5)          
           
(9) St. Francis (45.5)          
           
(5) SALINAS (48)          
           
(12) Prospect (41)          
           
(4) Leigh (49.5)          
           
(13) ALISAL (39.5)          
           
(6) CHRISTOPHER (47)          
           
(11) Los Gatos (43.5)          
           
(3) HOMESTEAD (49.5)          
           
(14) Piedmont Hills (40.5)          
           
(7) ST. IGNATIUS (46.5)          
           
(10) Leland (43.5)          
           
(2) Woodside (50)          
           
(15) SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO (38)          



DIVISION 2: Finally, the remaining 16 teams as ranked by enrollment are placed in Division 2.

Highest enrollment schools: Sacred Heart Cathedral (1,322) and Soquel (1,180).


Marc Velten-Lomelin and Menlo are looking like strong playoff contenders in Division 2. (Menlo School Athletics)

(1) LIVE OAK (52.5)          
           
(16) Carmel (31)          
           
(8) Sacred Heart Cathedral (39.5)          
           
(9) MERCY BURLINGAME (38.5)          
           
(5) PACIFIC COLLEGIATE (46)          
           
(12) Menlo School (34.5)          
           
(4) Soquel (47)          
           
(13) LATINO COLLEGE PREP (34.5)          
           
(6) Scotts Valley (45.5)          
           
(11) GUNDERSON (35.5)          
           
(3) TERRA NOVA (47)          
           
(14) Pacific Grove (31.5)          
           
(7) Santa Cruz (42)          
           
(10) EL CAMINO (38.5)          
           
(2) NOTRE DAME-BELMONT (49)          
           
(15) Woodside Priory (31)          



As mentioned earlier, there are a total of 10 at-large teams included in the complete field of 40 CCS playoff teams. Here's a brief look at the list of at-large teams, including the last five teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out if the season ended now.





WCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
9-0-1
17-1-2
5-3-2
14-3-3
4-2-4
11-4-4
4-4-2
9-8-3
0-8-2
4-10-4
SCVAL-DA Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
11-1-0
19-1-0
8-2-2
12-4-2
6-4-2
10-7-2
4-4-4
11-4-5
3-5-4
5-8-6
1-7-4
5-8-5
0-10-2
2-13-2
SCVAL-EC Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-0-2
14-2-4
9-3-0
10-6-3
6-3-3
8-7-3
5-5-2
6-10-3
3-7-2
6-11-2
3-9-0
8-10-2
1-10-1
2-12-4
BVAL-MH Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-1-3
15-1-4
8-1-5
10-2-6
8-2-4
11-2-6
5-6-3
8-7-5
4-4-6
5-6-7
5-7-2
7-9-2
3-8-3
6-9-5
0-14-0
3-17-0
BVAL-ST Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
13-0-1
16-1-2
10-3-1
15-4-1
10-3-1
11-4-5
8-6-0
10-8-2
3-9-2
5-13-2
3-9-2
5-12-3
1-8-5
4-10-6
0-10-4
1-12-4
BVAL-WV Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-2-2
12-2-2
8-2-4
9-4-4
6-1-7
6-5-7
7-4-3
9-8-3
5-6-3
6-9-5
3-8-3
3-8-3
3-8-3
3-9-3
1-12-1
1-15-1
MBL-Gabilan Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-1-1
12-4-2
9-1-2
11-4-3
7-3-1
8-9-2
4-6-2
9-7-2
3-6-2
7-8-4
2-8-2
5-10-4
0-10-2
4-13-3
MBL-Pacific Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-0-2
13-5-2
5-5-2
8-9-2
4-4-4
5-5-5
1-10-1
3-12-3
0-9-3
3-10-3
PAL-Bay Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
9-3-3
12-5-3
5-4-6
7-4-8
5-4-6
6-5-9
5-5-5
8-6-6
4-5-6
6-9-7
2-9-4
4-10-6
PAL-Ocean Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-3-2
13-4-3
6-5-3
9-7-4
4-5-4
5-6-6
3-7-1
5-9-2
0-12-2
2-14-2
PAL-Lake Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
9-0-3
10-3-3
6-5-1
8-5-1
6-5-1
8-10-1
5-5-2
5-6-2
0-11-1
0-13-1
SCCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
11-1-0
13-3-2
8-2-2
11-5-3
7-4-1
11-6-2
6-2-4
9-4-7
2-9-1
9-9-1
1-11-0
1-16-0