Here are the updated CCS Girls Soccer Playoff Projections based on the latest information available to us through the games of February 19.
Obviously, we
are at the mercy of the accuracy of our schedules. We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams
that compete in the Central Coast Section. These projections are based on our
best available information; if you would like to correct a team's result, please contact Prep2Prep
via
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@Prep2PrepSports.
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As we head into the final two weeks of the season, the playoff picture is becoming more and more clear. For this projection, we will take a look at the teams that
we feel are locks for the 40-team field and the teams that are fighting for the final few spots.
BVAL-Mount Hamilton
LOCKS (5): Leigh, Santa Teresa, Branham, Leland, Piedmont Hills. Leigh and Santa Teresa tied for first place and Branham and Leland tied for third but all five will have more
than enough points to get in regardless.
BUBBLE (0): The five BVAL-MH qualifiers will not have to sweat out Selection Saturday.
ELIMINATED (3): Willow Glen, Sobrato, Evergreen Valley
BVAL-Santa Teresa
LOCKS (2): Westmont, Live Oak. The two teams finished in a tie for first place.
BUBBLE (0): The BVAL-ST will not get an at-large team into the field.
ELIMINATED (6): Prospect, Pioneer, Del Mar, Lincoln, Silver Creek, Mt. Pleasant
BVAL-West Valley
LOCKS (1): Andrew Hill and Oak Grove finished in a tie for first. With only one automatic CCS playoff bid available, we had to consult the BVAL bylaws to break the tie.
Unless the teams agreed to a playoff game that Prep2Prep is not aware of, that meant skipping all the way down to 3) Goal differential (3 maximum) for all league games. By
that tiebreaker, we have Andrew Hill as the CCS qualifier.
BUBBLE (0): The BVAL-WV will not get an at-large team into the field.
ELIMINATED (7): Oak Grove, Overfelt, Independence, Yerba Buena, Gunderson, San Jose, James Lick
MBL-Gabilan
LOCKS (3): Salinas, Christopher, San Benito. Salinas clinched the league title with a win over Gilroy Wednesday.
BUBBLE (0): The MBL-Gabilan will not get an at-large team into the field.
ELIMINATED (4): Gilroy, Monte Vista Christian, Alvarez, Alisal
MBL-Pacific
LOCKS (1): Notre Dame-Salinas won the MBL-Pacific Division to earn the automatic bid.
BUBBLE (0): The MBL-Pacific will not get an at-large team into the field.
ELIMINATED (6): Pajaro Valley, Watsonville, North Monterey County, North Salinas, Seaside, Monterey
MTAL
LOCKS (3): Soledad, Pacific Grove, King City. King City was not technically an automatic qualifier but defeated Pacific Collegiate in the play-in
game to earn a spot in the playoffs.
BUBBLE (0): The MTAL will not receive any at-large berths.
ELIMINATED (5): Greenfield, Carmel, Santa Catalina, Stevenson, Gonzales + MTAL-Coastal
PAL-Bay
LOCKS (4): Woodside, Menlo-Atherton, Burlingame, Carlmont. Only the top 3 receive automatic bids, but Carlmont, which finished fourth, is safe with 42 CCS points.
BUBBLE (0): Aragon (36.5) won't have enough points to qualify.
ELIMINATED (4): Aragon, Hillsdale, Capuchino, Half Moon Bay
PAL-Ocean
LOCKS (1): Terra Nova has clinched the PAL-Ocean title to earn the league's only automatic bid.
BUBBLE (0): The PAL-Ocean will not receive any at-large berths.
ELIMINATED (8): San Mateo, El Camino, Sequoia, Mills, South San Francisco, Oceana, Westmoor, Jefferson
PSAL
LOCKS (1): KIPP Collegiate
BUBBLE (0): The PSAL will not receive any at-large berths.
ELIMINATED (5): Summit Prep, Thomas More, Latino Prep, Downtown College Prep, Jewish Community
SCCAL
LOCKS (3): Aptos, Santa Cruz and Scotts Valley are locks.
BUBBLE (1): Soquel should get in with 40 points but it is close enough to the cutoff point that we won't call it a lock quite yet.
ELIMINATED (3): Harbor, San Lorenzo Valley, St. Francis CCC
SCVAL-De Anza
LOCKS (4): Palo Alto, Mountain View, Santa Clara, Saratoga.
BUBBLE (0): Los Gatos had its bubble burst with a loss to Saratoga Wednesday. The Wildcats did not meet the .500 requirement.
ELIMINATED (3): Los Gatos, Homestead, Milpitas
SCVAL-El Camino
LOCKS (1): Fremont won the league title.
BUBBLE (1): We had left Gunn for dead a while back, but now it looks like the Titans will edge Sacred Heart Cathedral for the final at-large berth. A non-league win over The King's
Academy Tuesday in its final game got Gunn to 38 points, equalling Sacred Heart Cathedral's total, but we have the Titans winning the bonus points tiebreaker over the Irish.
ELIMINATED (5): Los Altos, Lynbrook, Monta Vista, Wilcox, Cupertino
WBAL
LOCKS (4): Menlo, Sacred Heart Prep, The King's Academy, Crystal Springs Uplands. Crystal Springs Uplands defeated Notre Dame-San Jose in the play-in game for the final automatic
bid.
BUBBLE (0): The WBAL will not receive any at-large berths.
ELIMINATED (8): Notre Dame-San Jose, Castilleja, Harker, Mercy Burlingame, Pinewood, Woodside Priory, Eastside College Prep, Mercy SF
WCAL
LOCKS (5): St. Francis, Presentation, Archbishop Mitty, Valley Christian, St. Ignatius
BUBBLE (1): It looks like Sacred Heart Cathedral (38 CCS points) will come up short -
in this projection, we have the Irish losing a tiebreaker with Gunn for the final at-large bid. SHC will probably need Piedmont Hills to lose to Sobrato to open up an
extra spot on the bubble.
ELIMINATED (1): Notre Dame-Belmont
So by that analysis, 38 of the 40 CCS playoff berths are accounted for, with 3 bubble teams scrambling for those final 3 at-large berths. It looks like Gunn and Sacred Heart Cathedral
are going to be in a battle for the final spot. If the point totals hold as we have them, SHC will be left out because of a tiebreaker.
Review: For the first time this season, CCS has implemented an Open Division for girls soccer. The 5 "A" league champions plus the next three highest point-total
getters will comprise an eight-team elite playoff field. The other 32 teams in the playoff field will be split according to enrollment with the top 16
in Division I and the rest of the teams in Division II.
For the formula used to calculate CCS points, please click
here. Keep in mind that only a team's final 18 games count
toward CCS point-total calculations. Also, a team must have at least a .500 record in league or overall to be considered. Higher-seeded teams host
in the first round except in the case when the lower-seeded team is a division champion and the higher-seeded team is not.
In the first round, teams from the same league cannot face each other, so seedings are adjusted to
avoid such matchups. Also first- and second-place teams from the same league cannot be placed in the same side of the bracket so we avoid those
situations as well.
First, a few assumptions:
ASSUMPTION 1: points are calculated on the assumption that an individual team will lose the rest of its games. The bonus points for playing
a league champion are included in the calculation. In other words, the point total you see represents the minimum point total for a given
team as of today.
ASSUMPTION 2: in calculating points awarded for playing league champions, points were split according to the number of teams currently
tied for first place. For instance, per CCS rules, teams are awarded bonus points for playing a league champion; if a team played a team
that is currently in a three-way tie for first, we credit the team one-third of the points. If two teams at the top of a league have not played the
same number of games, we assume league champ based on points per game.
ASSUMPTION 3: for out-of-section teams that we were unable to find accurate records, we assumed them to be "B" teams and not division champs.
ASSUMPTION 4: teams will apply for CCS and we will use league bylaws to determine order of finish as applicable. For instance if two at-large
teams apply for CCS from the same league, some league's bylaws mandate that the team that finished higher in the league standings must get in
first whereas other leagues rank at-large teams based on CCS points. We are assuming no teams will pull out of consideration.
ASSUMPTION 5: both the WBAL and MTAL hold a playoff to determine the final automatic bid. In the WBAL, the playoff pits the fourth-place team in the
Foothill Division against the champion of the Skyline Division. In the MTAL, it's the third-place team in the Mission Trail against the champion
of the Coastal Division. Because the team from the higher league has nearly always won this game in the past, we assume that team gets the
automatic bid.
ASSUMPTION 6: there may be some cases during the middle of a season where one team is technically in first place by total points but another team has a game in
hand. In those instances, we will assume the team with the higher points per game to be the league leader.
NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.
As mentioned earlier, there are a total of 10 at-large teams included in the complete field of 40 CCS playoff teams. Here's a brief look at
the last five teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out if the season ended now.