Prep2Prep CCS Girls Soccer Playoff Projections
FINAL PROJECTIONS (UPDATED 2/21/15)
NOTE: we will continue to update point totals as warranted, but these are the final projections based on all the results we have accumulated through the regular season.
Here are the updated CCS Girls Soccer Playoff Projections based on the latest information available to us through the games of February 20.
Obviously, we are at the mercy of the accuracy of our schedules. We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams
that compete in the Central Coast Section. These projections are based on our
best available information; if you would like to correct a team's result, please contact Prep2Prep
via our Contact Us page or tweet us @Prep2PrepSports.
You can also leave comments on our Facebook page.
For the formula used to calculate CCS points, please click
here. Keep in mind that only a team's final 18 games count
toward CCS point-total calculations. Also, a team must have at least a .500 record in league or overall to be considered. Higher-seeded teams host
in the first round except in the case when the lower-seeded team is a division champion and the higher-seeded team is not.
In the first round, teams from the same league cannot face each other, so seedings are adjusted to
avoid such matchups. Also first- and second-place teams from the same league cannot be placed in the same side of the bracket so we avoid those
situations as well.
Here is a league by league breakdown of who's in and who's out:
BVAL-MH:
IN (4): Leigh, Santa Teresa, Leland, Branham
OUT (2): Evergreen Valley, Live Oak
COMMENT: Branham and Leland wound up tied for third but Leland wins the tiebreaker. Live Oak and Evergreen Valley fell short of the .500 requirement.
BVAL-ST:
IN (2): Sobrato, Pioneer
COMMENT: Now that the top 2 teams receive automatic bids, Pioneer did not have to sweat out the final week, having clinched no worse than second place. Sobrato
defeated Westmont Friday to clinch the league title.
BVAL-WV:
IN (1): Silver Creek
COMMENT: This is a one-bid league and the Raiders ran away with the league title.
MBL-Gabilan:
IN (3): Salinas, Alisal, San Benito
OUT (1): Gilroy
COMMENT: Three teams receive automatic bids from this division. The race for the third bid came down to San Benito and Gilroy, which the Balers won. Gilroy won't get
in as an at-large team.
MBL-Pacific:
IN (1): North Salinas
COMMENT: This is a one-bid league and the Vikings have clinched the league title.
MTAL:
IN (3): Greenfield, Pacific Grove, Soledad
OUT (1): York
COMMENT: Soledad defeated York in the MTAL playoff for the third and final automatic spot.
PAL-Bay:
IN (4): Woodside, Burlingame, Carlmont, Menlo-Atherton
OUT (1): Aragon
COMMENT: Aragon's loss to Hillsdale eliminated the Dons from contention and set off a chain reaction in the brackets as Fremont replaced them, forcing Woodside to Division
II.
PAL-Ocean:
IN (1): Capuchino
OUT (1): Terra Nova
COMMENT: According to our records, Capuchino and Terra Nova finished in a tie for first but Cap would win the tiebreaker. This is a most likely a one-bid league so we are projecting Cap.
PSAL:
IN (1): Summit Prep/KIPP Collegiate
OUT (1): KIPP Collegiate
COMMENT: Summit Prep defeated KIPP Collegiate in the PSAL tournament championship to earn the automatic bid.
SCCAL:
IN (4): Aptos, Scotts Valley, Santa Cruz, Harbor
COMMENT: All of the top four teams are in terrific shape with over 40 points, which should get them into the field with no trouble.
SCVAL-DA:
IN (3): Mountain View, Palo Alto, Santa Clara
COMMENT: Saratoga's hopes were dashed with a 6-0 loss to Mountain View.
SCVAL-EC:
IN (3): Milpitas, Gunn, Fremont
COMMENT: It looks like Fremont will sneak in as the final at-large team in the field as a result of Aragon's loss in its season finale against Hillsdale.
WBAL:
IN (4): Sacred Heart Prep, Menlo, The King's Academy, Notre Dame-San Jose
OUT (1): Castilleja
COMMENT: Notre Dame-San Jose defeated Castilleja, 2-1, for the fourth and final automatic bid from the WBAL.
WCAL:
IN (5): Mitty, St. Francis, Presentation, Valley Christian, Sacred Heart Cathedral
COMMENT: Sacred Heart Cathedral sweated it out, but it looks like the Irish will nab one of the final at-large bids.
A few assumptions:
ASSUMPTION 1: points are calculated on the assumption that an individual team will lose the rest of its games. The bonus points for playing
a league champion are included in the calculation. In other words, the point total you see represents the minimum point total for a given
team as of today.
ASSUMPTION 2: in calculating points awarded for playing league champions, points were split according to the number of teams currently
tied for first place. For instance, per CCS rules, teams are awarded bonus points for playing a league champion; if a team played a team
that is currently in a three-way tie for first, we credit the team one-third of the points. If two teams at the top of a league have not played the
same number of games, we assume league champ based on points per game.
ASSUMPTION 3: for out-of-section teams that we were unable to find accurate records, we assumed them to be "B" teams and not division champs.
ASSUMPTION 4: teams will apply for CCS and we will use league bylaws to determine order of finish as applicable. For instance if two at-large
teams apply for CCS from the same league, some league's bylaws mandate that the team that finished higher in the league standings must get in
first whereas other leagues rank at-large teams based on CCS points. We are assuming no teams will pull out of consideration.
ASSUMPTION 5: both the WBAL and MTAL hold a playoff to determine the final automatic bid. In the WBAL, the playoff pits the fourth-place team in the
Foothill Division against the champion of the Skyline Division. In the MTAL, it's the third-place team in the Mission Trail against the champion
of the Coastal Division. Because the team from the higher league has nearly always won this game in the past, we assume that team gets the
automatic bid.
NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.
DIVISION I: Thirty-nine teams qualify for the CCS playoffs, with the top 13 schools by enrollment placed in Division I.
Lowest enrollment schools: Santa Clara (1,913), Gunn (1,900)
With Fremont taking the final at-large bid following Aragon's loss to Hillsdale in the season finale, Mountain View drops into Division II, making
that division even tougher along with the likes of Mitty, St. Francis, Leigha and Woodside, among others.
Salinas wins the tiebreaker over Menlo-Atherton for the No. 5 seed and Silver Creek wins the tiebreaker over Santa Clara for the No. 7 seed. We had
to drop San Benito down a spot to avoid a first-round matchup with Salinas.
DIVISION II: After the 13 teams with the highest enrollment are placed in Division I, the next 13 teams by enrollment are
placed in Division II, which is expected to be an extremely strong bracket once again in 2015.
Highest enrollment schools: Mountain View (1,837), Leland (1,826)
Lowest enrollment schools: Aptos (1,418), Soledad (1,369)
We had to swap Pioneer with Branham to avoid Pioneer being in the same side of the bracket as Sobrato. That sets the Bruins up with the unenviable
task of facing Woodside, another byproduct of Aragon failing to meet the .500 requirement and Fremont taking the final at-large bid. We also
had to swap Leland with Presentation to avoid an all-WCAL first-round matchup.
DIVISION III: Finally, the remaining 13 teams as ranked by enrollment are placed in Division III.
Highest enrollment schools: Burlingame (1,342), Sacred Heart Cathedral (1,287)
As mentioned earlier, there are a total of 9 at-large teams included in the complete field of 39 CCS playoff teams. Here's a brief look at
the last five teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out if the season ended now.
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