P2P CCS Playoff Projections
Bellarmine lost out on the outright WCAL title, but is still projected in the Open Division. (@bcssports/Twitter)

Prep2Prep CCS Boys Soccer Playoff Projections

UPDATED 2/20/2020, 11:15 PM


UPDATE: There were a few developments on and off the field that have affected point totals and division placement of several teams. First off, on the field, Mountain View scored two goals in the final 15 minutes to edge Homestead 3-2. Meanwhile, Santa Clara was held to a 0-0 tie against Palo Alto, leaving the two teams tied for first in the SCVAL-De Anza. Mountain View wins the head-to-head tiebreaker and therefore will represent the league in the Open Division. The teams will be declared co-champs based on an interpretation of the SCVAL bylaws.

In contrast, we have had to adjust the championship status in the WCAL, where Sacred Heart Cathedral is declared the sole league champ across the board despite finishing in a tie for first with Bellarmine, according to WCAL bylaws. This not only impacts the point totals of SHC and Bellarmine, but also any team that played those two teams during the regular season.

Also, we could not confirm Lee-San Antonio as a league champ because we learned the Texas league season continues into March. This reduces Bellarmine's point total to 54. We are still trying to confirm the point total for Saint Ignatius, which played four Florida teams in the preseason, three of which we currently have rated as "A" league champs.

In other games with playoff implications, Pajaro Valley hammered Ceiba Prep, 9-0, to earn the final automatic bid from the PCAL. Milpitas stunned Wilcox, 4-0, which prevented the Chargers from improving their seeding. Harker and Menlo both won to add to their CCS point totals. Menlo also benefits from the SHC league championship determination.

We present the latest of our Central Coast Section Boys Soccer Playoff Projections based on the latest information available to Prep2Prep through the matches of February 19. We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams that compete in the Central Coast Section. These projections are based on our best available information; if you would like to correct a team's result, please do so directly on that team's Prep2Prep page, contact Prep2Prep via our Contact Us page or tweet us @Prep2PrepSports. You can also leave comments on our Facebook page.

CCS has not made any changes to the teams that make up Open Division for boys soccer. The 5 "A" league champions plus the next three highest point-total getters will comprise an eight-team elite playoff field. The only "B" teams eligible are those in stand-alone leagues, but they are required to opt up prior to the seeding meeting. The other 32 teams in the playoff field will be split according to their CCS point total, with the top 8 in Division 1, the next 8 in Division 2, the next 8 in Division 3 and the final 8 in Division 4.

For the formula used to calculate CCS points, please click here. Keep in mind that only a team's final 18 games count toward CCS point-total calculations. Also, a team must have at least a .500 record in league or overall to be considered. Higher-seeded teams host in the first round.

In the first round, teams from the same league cannot face each other, so seedings are adjusted to avoid such matchups.

As we approach the final full week of the regular season, we will focus on which teams have clinched a CCS berth, which teams are closing in and which teams are on the bubble and still have some work to do. The best way to do so is to go through league by league.

BVAL-MOUNT HAMILTON

CLINCHED (4): Leland, Lincoln, Branham, Leigh

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (4): Overfelt, Prospect, Pioneer, Santa Teresa

NOTE: Leland defeated Lincoln in penalty kicks to win the league title and automatic trip to the Open Division playoffs. Branham edged Overfelt 2-1 to earn the third automatic bid to CCS. Leigh is a lock as an at-large team primarily because two teams the Longhorns beat in the preseason - Evergreen Valley and Del Mar - also won their league championships.

BVAL-SANTA TERESA

CLINCHED (3): Evergreen Valley, Yerba Buena, Mt. Pleasant

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (5): Andrew Hill, Piedmont Hills, Independence, Westmont, San Jose

NOTE: Evergreen Valley defeated Yerba Buena to clinch the league title. Both teams had already secured the two automatic bids into the CCS playoffs. Mt. Pleasant will get in easily as an at-large team. Andrew Hill is projected as one of the first teams out.

BVAL-WEST VALLEY

CLINCHED (1): Del Mar

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (7): Live Oak, Gunderson, Willow Glen, Silver Creek, Ann Sobrato, James Lick, Oak Grove

NOTE: Del Mar beat Live Oak for the second time in a row to capture the BVAL-West Valley title and automatic bid into the CCS playoffs. Tuesday was a tough day for Gunderson, which fell off the bubble thanks to Lincoln's loss to Leland for the BVAL-MH title.

PAL-BAY

CLINCHED (4): Menlo-Atherton, Carlmont, Burlingame, Sequoia

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (4): Hillsdale, South San Francisco, Aragon, Half Moon Bay

NOTE: Hillsdale was eliminated with its loss to Aragon in the season finale. However, Sequoia (43.5 CCS points) will get in as one of the top at-large teams.

PAL-OCEAN

CLINCHED (1): San Mateo

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (8): Capuchino, Woodside, Westmoor, Mills, Jefferson, El Camino, Terra Nova, Oceana

NOTE: San Mateo won the PAL-Ocean title with a 14-1-1 record. Capuchino (40) is right on the bubble. We have them losing to Greenfield in the bonus points tiebreaker for the final spot in the field.

PCAL-ARROYO

CLINCHED (0): none

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (6): Ceiba College Prep, St. Francis SCP, York, Oakwood, Anzar, Trinity Christian

NOTE: Ceiba College Prep lost 9-0 to Pajaro Valley to end its season.

PCAL-CYPRESS

CLINCHED (2): King City, Greenfield

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (4): Palma, Carmel, Monte Vista Christian, Gonzales

NOTE: King City has already earned the PCAL-Cypress automatic bid. Greenfield lost 3-2 at Seaside in a play-in match for an automatic bid, but will have one more shot to get in as an at-large team with 40 CCS points. We have them winning a tiebreaker with Capuchino for the final at-large bid.

PCAL-GABILAN

CLINCHED (3): Watsonville, Alvarez, North Salinas

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (3): Alisal, Soledad, San Benito

NOTE: The top 3 teams are set and Alisal would have enough points for consideration but do not meet the .500 requirement and has been eliminated.

PCAL-MISSION

CLINCHED (2): Salinas, Pajaro Valley

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (4): Gilroy, Monterey, Christopher, North Monterey County

NOTE: As expected, Pajaro Valley secured a playoff berth with a 9-0 win over Ceiba Prep. Gilroy (39) looks to be on the wrong side of the bubble.

PCAL-SANTA LUCIA

CLINCHED (1): Seaside

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (5): Robert Louis Stevenson, Pacific Grove, Pacific Collegiate, Marina, Rancho San Juan

NOTE: Seaside defeated Greenfield 3-2 for an automatic bid to the CCS playoffs.

PSAL-NORTH

CLINCHED (1): Summit Prep

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (5): Summit Tahoma, Design Tech, Summit Shasta, Nueva School, Summit Rainier

NOTE: Summit Prep has dominated this one-bid league and will be a fascinating matchup in the CCS playoffs.

PSAL-SOUTH

CLINCHED (1): Latino College Prep

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (5): Cristo Rey, Luis Valdez Leadership, Downtown College Prep, KIPP San Jose Collegiate, Downtown College Prep-Alum Rock

NOTE: Latino College Prep has clinched the league title in the one-bid league.

SCCAL

CLINCHED (2): Soquel, Harbor

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (0): Aptos, Scotts Valley, Santa Cruz, San Lorenzo Valley

NOTE: Soquel won the regular-season title and but lost to Harbor in the postseason league tournament final. Both teams will move on to the CCS playoffs.

SCVAL-DE ANZA

CLINCHED (5): Mountain View, Santa Clara, Los Altos, Homestead, Los Gatos

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (2): Palo Alto, Cupertino

NOTE: It appears that Los Gatos was awarded a forfeit win over Cupertino, which would enable the Wildcats to earn one of the final at-large berths. The Wildcats also benefited from Leland's win over Lincoln in the BVAL-MH final, gaining two more points to jump to 43.5. Mountain View claimed the league title on the final day of the season with a dramatic win over Homestead coupled with Santa Clara's 0-0 draw against Palo Alto.

SCVAL-EL CAMINO

CLINCHED (2): Gunn, Wilcox

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (5): Lynbrook, Monta Vista, Fremont, Milpitas, Saratoga

NOTE: Gunn has won the league title and automatic CCS berth and Wilcox (43.5) has enough CCS points to qualify.

WBAL

CLINCHED (3): Sacred Heart Prep, Menlo, Harker

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (4): Crystal Springs Uplands, The King's Academy, Woodside Priory, Eastside College Prep

NOTE: Menlo tied Harker to clinch the second automatic bid from the WBAL behind league champ Sacred Heart Prep. Harker (47) is a lock for an at-large berth.

WCAL

CLINCHED (5): Sacred Heart Cathedral, Bellarmine College Prep, Archbishop Mitty, Saint Ignatius, Saint Francis

CLOSING IN (0): none

BUBBLE (0): none

LONGSHOT (0): none

OUT (3): Serra, Valley Christian, Archbishop Riordan

NOTE: Sacred Heart Cathedral won the league title on the final day of the regular season, stunning Bellarmine 4-0 while Saint Ignatius picked off a 1-1 draw against Mitty. The Monarchs would have won the title in case of a three-way tie; as it stands, SHC wins the head-to-head tiebreaker with Bellarmine. Mitty now appears to be locked into Division 1, especially after losing three bonus points for tying Lincoln, which lost its hold on the BVAL-MH title to Leland.

TOTAL

CLINCHED (40)

CLOSING IN (0)

BUBBLE (0)

LONGSHOT (0)

OUT (74)

NOTE: There have been known to be surprises come CCS selection day, but we believe the 40-team field is set at this point.

Here are a few assumptions for the process as a whole:

ASSUMPTION 1: points are calculated on the assumption that an individual team will lose the rest of its games. The bonus points for playing a league champion are included in the calculation. In other words, the point total you see represents the minimum point total for a given team as of today. We determine league champions based on points per game, which is especially relevant in cases where the teams have not played the same number of games.

ASSUMPTION 2: in calculating points awarded for playing league champions, points were split according to the number of teams currently tied for first place. For instance, per CCS rules, teams are awarded bonus points for playing a league champion; if a team played a team that is currently in a three-way tie for first, we credit the team one-third of the points. If two teams at the top of a league have not played the same number of games, we assume league champ based on points per game.

ASSUMPTION 3: for out-of-section teams that we were unable to find accurate records, we assumed them to be "B" teams and not division champs.

ASSUMPTION 4: teams will apply for CCS and we will use league bylaws to determine order of finish as applicable. For instance if two at-large teams apply for CCS from the same league, some league's bylaws mandate that the team that finished higher in the league standings must get in first whereas other leagues rank at-large teams based on CCS points. We are assuming no teams will pull out of consideration.

ASSUMPTION 5: the PCAL holds two playoffs to determine the final automatic bids pitting the second-place team in the Cypress against the champion of the Santa Lucia Division and the second-place team in the Mission against the champion of the Arroyo Division. For now we will choose the team that is rated higher in the Prep2Prep computer rankings.

ASSUMPTION 6: the BVAL has changed its format no longer featuring a double round-robin. Instead, the eight-team divisions are broken up into two groups with the winner of each group facing off in a one-game playoff for the championship. This also has implications for the 3 automatic bids from the BVAL-MH, in which the two second-place finishers will meet for the automatic bid. For now, we will assume the teams with the higher league point total win the tiebreakers.

NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.

OPEN DIVISION: The Open underwent some major changes based on Tuesday's results. Leland edged Lincoln in an extended penalty kick shootout to win the BVAL-Mount Hamilton league title. And Sacred Heart Cathedral stunned Bellarmine 4-0 to win the WCAL title. Mitty had a chance to forge a three-way tie - and would have won the tiebreaker - but the Monarchs wound up with a 1-1 draw against St. Ignatius. The results from Tuesday effectively eliminated Mitty from Open consideration.

Leland and SHC are joined as automatic qualifiers by Watsonville (PCAL-Gabilan) and Menlo-Atherton (PAL-Bay). The SCVAL-De Anza race was decided on the final day of the season with Mountain View claiming the league title with a come-from-behind win over Homestead while Santa Clara was held to a scoreless draw at Palo Alto. The teams are considered co-champs but Mountain View wins the tiebreaker and will represent the SCVAL in the Open Division.

A new bylaw states that the teams will be seeded subjectively by the committee so we have made our best guess as to what the committee will decide.


Alisal was stunned by San Benito but is still a strong contender for an Open Division berth. (@AlisalFutbol/Twitter)

1 SACRED HEART CATHEDRAL (57)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Open Div. Champ

8 Menlo-Atherton (50)

4 MOUNTAIN VIEW (53.5)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

5 Leland (56)

3 BELLARMINE COLLEGE PREP (54)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

6 Sacred Heart Prep (54)

2 WATSONVILLE (62.5)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

7 St. Ignatius (54.5)



DIVISION 1: After the eight top teams are placed in the Open, the 8 teams with the highest point totals are placed in Division 1.


Santa Teresa is currently the 7th seed in Division 1. (Elena Dubocanin/Prep2Prep)

1 SALINAS (59.5)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Open Div. Champ

8 Lincoln (48)

4 GUNN (52)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

5 San Mateo (49)

3 ARCHBISHOP MITTY (52.5)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

6 Santa Clara (48.5)

2 HOMESTEAD (53)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

7 Alvarez (48)



DIVISION 2: The next 8 teams as ranked by CCS point totals are placed in Division 2.

We had to move Burlingame down a spot to avoid a first-round matchup against league rival Carlmont.


Mitty is currently the 4th seed in Division 2. (@mittymsoccer/Twitter)

1 BRANHAM (47.5)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Open Div. Champ

8 Los Altos (45)

4 CARLMONT (46.5)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

5 Mt. Pleasant (45.5)

3 HARKER SCHOOL (47)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

6 Burlingame (46.5)

2 LEIGH (47.5)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

7 Menlo School (45.5)



DIVISION 3: The next 8 teams as ranked by CCS points are placed in Division 3.


St. Ignatius is currently the number 2 seed in Division 3. (@SIScores/Twitter)

1 LOS GATOS (44.5)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Open Div. Champ

8 Greenfield (40)

4 ST. FRANCIS (42.5)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

5 Evergreen Valley (41.5)

3 SEQUOIA (43.5)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

6 Soquel (40.5)

2 WILCOX (43.5)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

7 Summit Prep (40)



DIVISION 4: The final 8 teams as ranked by CCS points are placed in Division 4.


Sacred Heart Prep is currently the 6th seed in Division 4. (@SHPathletics/Twitter)

1 DEL MAR (39.5)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Open Div. Champ

8 Yerba Buena (29)

4 KING CITY (35.5)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

5 Latino College Prep (35.5)

3 NORTH SALINAS (38.5)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

6 Harbor (34.5)

2 PAJARO VALLEY (39.5)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

7 Seaside (30)



As mentioned earlier, there are a total of 11 at-large teams included in the complete field of 40 CCS playoff teams. Here's a brief look at the list of at-large teams, including the last five teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out if the season ended now.





WCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-2-2
16-2-4
10-2-2
15-2-4
9-2-3
14-2-4
8-6-0
13-7-1
6-7-1
9-8-4
4-8-2
6-11-3
2-9-3
5-10-4
0-13-1
2-16-1
SCVAL-DA Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
7-2-3
13-4-4
7-2-3
11-6-4
6-2-4
8-4-6
6-6-0
11-8-1
4-7-1
8-9-3
3-8-1
3-12-4
2-8-2
3-12-5
SCVAL-EC Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-0-2
15-1-4
8-1-3
13-1-7
7-5-0
9-8-1
5-5-2
7-8-5
4-5-2
7-6-4
1-9-2
1-16-3
0-10-1
1-14-1
BVAL-MH Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
9-0-1
13-4-5
7-1-2
12-3-7
6-2-2
14-6-2
4-5-1
10-6-3
3-7-0
3-11-5
2-5-3
5-9-6
2-7-1
6-11-1
2-8-0
2-18-0
BVAL-ST Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
7-1-2
15-1-5
7-1-2
11-7-4
5-3-2
10-4-5
5-3-2
8-6-5
3-5-2
9-7-2
3-5-2
7-8-3
3-5-2
5-7-6
0-10-0
0-17-1
BVAL-WV Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
8-1-1
17-3-1
7-0-3
11-1-5
7-1-2
10-8-2
3-4-3
9-6-5
3-6-1
3-8-1
2-4-4
3-9-5
1-8-1
3-12-2
1-8-1
2-10-2
PAL-Bay Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
9-3-2
9-6-6
7-3-4
9-6-5
6-4-4
9-7-4
6-7-1
12-8-1
6-7-1
7-9-4
5-7-2
6-8-4
4-9-1
5-11-4
PAL-Ocean Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
14-1-1
15-3-1
13-1-2
13-3-2
9-6-1
10-7-1
7-5-4
7-5-4
7-6-3
7-6-3
7-7-2
8-10-2
6-10-0
7-13-0
1-14-1
1-15-1
1-15-0
1-16-0
PCAL-Cypress Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
8-2-0
9-7-0
7-1-2
11-5-4
5-4-1
9-8-3
4-4-2
5-8-5
0-10-0
1-13-0
PCAL-Gabilan Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
8-0-2
16-4-2
5-2-3
12-3-6
3-4-3
9-6-5
2-4-4
6-8-6
2-5-3
6-5-5
0-5-5
2-9-8
PCAL-Mission Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
9-1-0
16-2-1
6-3-1
12-6-3
4-2-4
9-3-7
4-6-0
7-9-1
1-5-3
4-7-6
PCAL-Santa Lucia Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
7-1-2
10-4-3
5-4-1
8-9-2
4-2-3
7-4-4
3-6-1
4-11-1
1-8-0
2-11-0
PCAL-Arroyo Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
8-2-0
8-7-0
7-2-1
7-8-1
6-4-0
7-5-0
2-7-1
2-10-1
2-8-0
2-10-0
PSAL-North Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-0-0
17-0-0
5-3-2
6-5-2
5-5-0
5-8-0
4-4-2
7-6-2
1-5-3
1-8-3
0-8-1
0-10-2
PSAL-South Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
7-1-2
7-1-2
4-4-1
5-5-1
1-8-1
1-12-1
SCCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
6-2-2
11-6-3
5-0-5
10-6-5
3-4-3
9-8-3
3-4-3
6-8-5
1-4-5
1-12-5
WBAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
11-0-1
18-0-2
9-2-1
15-2-4
8-2-2
14-3-3
2-7-3
5-9-3
2-7-3
3-9-3
0-11-1
1-14-2