P2P CCS Playoff Projections
The final projection has Mitty (white) in Division I and Serra in Division II. (Dennis Putian/Special to Prep2Prep)

Prep2Prep CCS Boys Soccer Playoff Projections

FINAL UPDATE 2/18/2017


UPDATE: We have learned that Gonzales tied King City 1-1, which does not impact the seedings in Division II.

We present the final Central Coast Section Boys Soccer Playoff Projections based on the latest information available to Prep2Prep through the end of the regular season. We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams that compete in the Central Coast Section. These projections are based on our best available information; if you would like to correct a team's result, please do so directly on that team's Prep2Prep page, contact Prep2Prep via our Contact Us page or tweet us @Prep2PrepSports. You can also leave comments on our Facebook page.

CCS implemented an Open Division for boys soccer in 2015-16. The 5 "A" league champions plus the next three highest point-total getters will comprise an eight-team elite playoff field. The other 32 teams in the playoff field will be split according to enrollment with the top 16 in Division I and the rest of the teams in Division II.

There was a three-way tie for the final two at-large spots at 41 points. Andrew Hill and Gunn edged out South San Francisco on total bonus points, leaving the Warriors as the first team out of the field.

There are a couple of pending results that could potentially impact the final seedings. The MTAL playoff game between Carmel and Oakwood for the third automatic bid from that league was postponed from Friday until Saturday morning at 10 am. The winner will slot into Division II - we have projected Carmel for now.

Another possible monkey wrench is Saratoga, a team for which we have just 16 games reported. In our current projection, we have the Falcons at 38.5 points - 2.5 out of the final spot - but positive results in potentially missing games would obviously change that total.

The PAL races were decided on Friday, the final day of the regular season. Carlmont and Aragon both won to finish in a tie for first in the PAL-Bay Division. We have both teams projected into the Open Division playoffs. Menlo-Atherton also clinched a playoff spot with a 3-0 win over Woodside.

El Camino won the PAL-Ocean with a 3-0 win over Jefferson. Hillsdale finished second but will also earn a spot in the playoffs.

The SCCAL had some drama on the final day of the season. Santa Cruz tied Soquel, leaving an opening for Scotts Valley to claim the league title, which it did with a 3-0 win at Aptos. That had implications for other teams, most notably Monterey, which we have projected into the Open in a tiebreaker over Prospect for the final at-large spot.

None of the WCAL results on Friday had any major impact on the brackets. St. Ignatius won to tie Branham for the No. 2 seed in the Open Division and would win the tiebreaker over the Bruins. St. Francis won, but will fall short with a total of 40 CCS points.

For the formula used to calculate CCS points, please click here. Keep in mind that only a team's final 18 games count toward CCS point-total calculations. Also, a team must have at least a .500 record in league or overall to be considered. Higher-seeded teams host in the first round except in the case when the lower-seeded team is a division champion and the higher-seeded team is not.

In the first round, teams from the same league cannot face each other, so seedings are adjusted to avoid such matchups. Also first- and second-place teams from the same league cannot be placed in the same side of the bracket if possible so we avoid those situations as well.

First, a few assumptions:

ASSUMPTION 1: points are calculated on the assumption that an individual team will lose the rest of its games. The bonus points for playing a league champion are included in the calculation. In other words, the point total you see represents the minimum point total for a given team as of today.

ASSUMPTION 2: in calculating points awarded for playing league champions, points were split according to the number of teams currently tied for first place. For instance, per CCS rules, teams are awarded bonus points for playing a league champion; if a team played a team that is currently in a three-way tie for first, we credit the team one-third of the points. If two teams at the top of a league have not played the same number of games, we assume league champ based on points per game.

ASSUMPTION 3: for out-of-section teams that we were unable to find accurate records, we assumed them to be "B" teams and not division champs.

ASSUMPTION 4: in cases where teams have not played the same amount of games, we compare teams in the same league on a points per game basis.

ASSUMPTION 5: teams will apply for CCS and we will use league bylaws to determine order of finish as applicable. For instance if two at-large teams apply for CCS from the same league, some league's bylaws mandate that the team that finished higher in the league standings must get in first whereas other leagues rank at-large teams based on CCS points. We are assuming no teams will pull out of consideration.

ASSUMPTION 6: the MTAL hold a playoff to determine the final automatic bid. In the MTAL, it's the third-place team in the Mission Trail against the champion of the Coastal Division. Because the team from the higher league has nearly always won this game in the past, we assume that team gets the automatic bid.

NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.

OPEN DIVISION: The "A" league champions are: Branham (BVAL-Mount Hamilton), Alisal (MBL-Gabilan), Homestead (SCVAL-De Anza), St. Ignatius (WCAL) and Carlmont (PAL-Bay) - in a tiebreaker with Aragon.

There was a last-minute twist in the at-large spots. Pioneer (52.5) easily grabbed the first at-large spot, but there was a three-way tie at 51 points for the remaining two spots among Aragon, Monterey and Prospect. Monterey picked up 1.5 points without touching a soccer ball as Scotts Valley's outright championship in the SCCAL netted the Toreadores the additional bonus. Aragon and Monterey would take the two at-large spots by virtue of bonus points, with Prospect taking over as the No. 1 seed in Division II.


Homestead has clinched the SCVAL-De Anza Division and will be in the Open Division playoffs. (Carter Fox/Prep2Prep)

(1) ALISAL (70.5)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Open Div. Champ

(8) Aragon (51)

(4) CARLMONT (56)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) Homestead (54.5)

(3) BRANHAM (57)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) Pioneer (52.5)

(2) ST. IGNATIUS (57)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) Monterey (51)




DIVISION I: After the eight top teams are placed in the Open, the 16 teams with the highest enrollment are placed in Division I with the remaining 16 teams placed in Division II.

As it stands now, Division I appears loaded with traditional powers like Mitty, Mountain View, Bellarmine, Los Gatos, Watsonville, Palo Alto, St. Francis and defending Division I champs Lincoln, just to name a few.

We had to move Los Altos down a spot to avoid a first-round matchup against league mate Mountain View.

Lowest enrollment schools: Woodside (1,793) and Mitty (1,748).


Mitty, with Jota Yamaguchi (10) is projected as the No. 4 seed in Division I. (Dennis Putian/Prep2Prep)

(1) BELLARMINE COLLEGE PREP (48.5)          
           
(16) Alvarez (41)          
           
(8) LINCOLN (46.5)          
           
(9) Los Gatos (45.5)          
           
(5) MOUNTAIN VIEW (48)          
           
(12) Woodside (43)          
           
(4) ARCHBISHOP MITTY (48)          
           
(13) Los Altos (43.5)          
           
(6) MENLO-ATHERTON (46.5)          
           
(11) Palo Alto (44)          
           
(3) NORTH SALINAS (48)          
           
(14) Andrew Hill (41)          
           
(7) FREMONT (46.5)          
           
(10) San Benito (45)          
           
(2) WATSONVILLE (48)          
           
(15) Gunn (41)          



DIVISION II: Finally, the remaining 16 teams as ranked by enrollment are placed in Division II.

We had to move Sacred Heart Prep down a spot to avoid a first-round matchup with league rival Menlo. We also had to drop Hillsdale from No. 6 to No. 8 to avoid the same side of the bracket as El Camino. For the same reason, we dropped Soquel a spot.

Highest enrollment schools: Serra (1,696) and Overfelt (1,623).


Menlo is projected as the No. 2 seed in Division II. (Menlo Athletics)

(1) PROSPECT (51)          
           
(16) Sacred Heart Prep (33.5)          
           
(8) HILLSDALE (43)          
           
(9) Sacred Heart Cathedral (41.5)          
           
(5) SERRA (45.5)          
           
(12) Soquel (40)          
           
(4) Burlingame (46)          
           
(13) GONZALES (38.5)          
           
(6) SCOTTS VALLEY (43)          
           
(11) Del Mar (39)          
           
(3) EL CAMINO (49.5)          
           
(14) Carmel (36.5)          
           
(7) LATINO COLLEGE PREP (42.5)          
           
(10) Soledad (40.5)          
           
(2) MENLO SCHOOL (49.5)          
           
(15) Overfelt (32.5)          



As mentioned earlier, there are a total of 12 at-large teams included in the complete field of 40 CCS playoff teams. Here's a brief look at the list of at-large teams, including the last five teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out if the season ended now.





WCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
13-0-1
17-5-1
10-4-0
14-6-1
7-5-2
14-6-4
7-5-2
11-5-5
6-6-2
9-7-4
3-11-0
6-13-1
0-14-0
0-19-0
SCVAL-DA Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
8-0-4
12-2-7
6-1-5
11-5-7
6-4-2
9-7-3
6-5-1
13-6-2
5-3-4
8-5-6
0-9-3
2-12-4
0-9-3
2-12-5
SCVAL-EC Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
9-1-2
12-2-5
8-2-2
10-3-3
7-3-2
10-7-3
5-6-1
7-11-2
4-5-3
6-9-5
2-7-2
2-13-2
0-11-0
0-18-0
BVAL-MH Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-1-3
14-2-4
8-2-4
14-4-6
8-2-4
12-5-4
6-6-2
10-10-2
5-8-1
6-10-2
2-11-1
5-13-2
2-11-1
2-15-3
BVAL-ST Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
13-0-1
18-1-3
8-5-1
11-8-1
7-4-3
10-7-3
6-6-2
6-8-3
5-6-3
6-10-4
4-6-4
6-9-4
2-9-3
7-9-3
2-11-1
2-13-4
BVAL-WV Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-0-4
14-2-6
9-1-4
11-3-6
7-4-3
7-5-3
6-6-2
7-9-2
5-8-1
6-10-2
4-7-3
4-12-3
4-9-1
6-10-2
1-11-2
2-13-4
MBL-Gabilan Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
12-0-0
17-3-1
6-3-3
14-7-3
6-4-2
12-6-4
6-4-2
9-6-6
3-7-2
6-11-2
1-9-2
2-12-4
MBL-Pacific Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-0-2
15-1-3
8-1-3
14-4-3
8-3-1
11-6-3
5-6-1
7-10-1
5-6-1
6-10-3
1-10-0
4-14-1
0-11-0
3-14-1
PAL-Bay Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-3-1
13-7-1
10-3-1
13-5-4
8-4-2
10-8-3
7-6-1
9-8-5
7-7-0
9-10-0
3-11-0
5-15-0
2-10-2
4-11-4
PAL-Ocean Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
12-1-1
18-2-4
11-1-2
17-4-2
11-3-0
12-7-2
7-7-0
9-8-2
5-7-2
5-12-3
3-9-2
4-10-2
2-11-1
4-13-3
1-13-0
1-14-1
SCCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
8-1-3
11-6-4
7-1-4
12-3-4
7-2-3
9-4-4
6-3-3
8-4-5
4-6-2
5-11-3
0-12-0
3-15-1