Prep2Prep CCS Football Playoff Projections
Cameron Rynhard and Branham are projected as the No. 1 seed in Division 4. (Ryan McCarthy/Prep2Prep)

Prep2Prep CCS Playoff Projections

UPDATED 11/9/2019

In what turned out to be a wild final weekend of CCS action, we had to wait until late Saturday night to complete the playoff picture as Monte Vista Christian and Seaside battled into triple overtime to settle the PCAL-Mission title. Seaside won, creating a tri-championship along with Monte Vista Christian and Alisal.

Because of the late nature of the projections, in this update we will just focus on getting the teams in the field. We will look to add more commentary as we move closer to the Sunday morning CCS meeting.

Just for starters, Branham, Serra and MVC all had perfect league seasons ruined on the final weekend, forcing three-way ties for the title in the BVAL-Santa Teresa, WCAL and PCAL-Mission, respectively. The loss to St. Ignatius did not affect Serra's overall number one seeding accoring to our projections.

Milpitas locked itself into the playoff field with a big win over Palo Alto to finish in a three-way tie for third in the SCVAL-De Anza. Only four automatic bids come from the SCVAL-DA but Milpitas will get in as an at-large team for sure now.

Gunn will likely miss out on the playoffs after losing to Homestead in its finale, dropping to third place behind automatic qualifiers Saratoga and Homestead. Other than that, not much happened on the final weekend of the CCS season!

Here is a review of how the new bylaws for the CCS football playoffs work. The new playoff format is highly dependent on rankings supplied by CalPreps. We won't go into great detail here, but the bylaws are available here (PDF).

Instead what we will do is give a brief rundown of the new system. As has been the case the past several years, there will be 40 CCS playoff teams. It is how those teams are selected that has gone through a massive change.

Of the 40, 33 teams will receive automatic bids based on their finish in their respective league standings. The five "A" leagues will produce four automatic bids each, with the remaining 13 berths coming from the various "B" and "C" leagues throughout the section. In general, "B" leagues will get two bids and "C" leagues one bid.

For the most part, the CCS point calculation is the same as it has been for the past few years with one addition: teams get additional credit for playing teams in the CalPreps Top 150 California ranking: 2 points for a team ranked in the top 100 and 1 point for a team ranked 101-150. Furthermore, teams outside of CCS are classified as "A", "B" and "C" teams based on their CalPreps ranking.

The 10 best at-large point totals are put into a pool and then their CalPreps rankings are taken into account to choose the top 7. Once the entire field of 40 is selected, a weighted score of the teams' CalPreps ranking and their CCS point total is produced and then the top 8 teams go to Division 1, the next 8 to Division 2 and so on down to Division 5.

Note: Lincoln would have earned a spot in the field, but the Lions do not participate in CCS playoffs because of their commitment to the annual Big Bone Game against San Jose on Thanksgiving Day.

For the formula used to calculate CCS points, please click here (PDF).

NOTE: Adjusted CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.

DIVISION 1

If we needed more proof that it is extremely difficult to run the table in the WCAL, St. Ignatius provided the latest evidence, handing Serra its first loss of the season. The loss will have no impact on the Padres' seeding as they are still clearly the No. 1 overall seed in the CCS field. The net result for SI, though, is a first-round home game according to our projection.

We have Half Moon Bay and Los Gatos in a virtual tie for the No. 8 overall seed, but Half Moon Bay has the higher CalPreps ranking. It's a huge difference travelling to Serra for a first-round game or taking the No. 1 seed in Division 2 and a home game most likely against Sacred Heart Prep.


Valley Christian appears to be locked in to the No. 2 seed in Division 1. (Brian Dewitt/Special to Prep2Prep)

(1) SERRA (78)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. 1 Champ

(8) Half Moon Bay (63)

(4) ST. IGNATIUS (69)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) Menlo-Atherton (67.8)

(3) WILCOX (69.8)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) Archbishop Mitty (66.5)

(2) VALLEY CHRISTIAN (70.5)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) St. Francis (65)



DIVISION 2

Palma and Salinas could meet in the semifinals after a spirited race in the MBL-Gabilan. Los Gatos appears to have a manageable path to the final, while Palo Alto drops to the No. 7 seed after losing its regular season finale against Milpitas.


San Benito is projected as the No. 8 seed in Division 2. (Brian Dewitt/Special to Prep2Prep)

(1) LOS GATOS (63)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. 2 Champ

(8) Sacred Heart Prep (53.3)

(4) BELLARMINE COLLEGE PREP (54.5)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) Live Oak (54)

(3) PALMA (57.5)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) Oak Grove (54)

(2) SALINAS (62.5)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) Palo Alto (53.7)



DIVISION 3

The King's Academy appears to be pretty well set as the No. 1 seed in Division 3. We have the Knights taking on Milpitas, which at one point looked like a potential Division 5 team before finishing the season strong. San Benito looks to be a formidable No. 6 seed in this bracket and its physical presence will be a tough matchup for No. 3 Mountain View if the projections hold.


San Benito is now projected as the No. 6 seed in Division 3. (Brian Dewitt/Special to Prep2Prep)

(1) THE KING'S ACADEMY (49.8)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. 3 Champ

(8) Milpitas (38.8)

(4) APTOS (44.5)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) Burlingame (42.5)

(3) MOUNTAIN VIEW (45)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) San Benito (41)

(2) TERRA NOVA (46.33)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) San Mateo (40)



DIVISION 4

Branham went from an undefeated season and outright league title to a three-way share of the BVAL-Santa Teresa title. But if these projections are accurate, the Bruins may have improved their chances at a CCS title, starting with a potential rematch against tri-champ Overfelt in the first round. Carmel is a fascinating team that appears capable of a long run in Division 4.


Saratoga is projected as the No. 5 seed in Division 4. (Nick Borgia/Prep2Prep)

(1) BRANHAM (38.8)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. 4 Champ

(8) Overfelt (31.3)

(4) SEASIDE (35.8)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) Hillsdale (34.5)

(3) CARMEL (36.5)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) Soquel (33.5)

(2) MONTE VISTA CHRISTIAN (37.3)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) Saratoga (32)



DIVISION 5

BVAL-Mount Hamilton rivals Leland and Piedmont Hills could find themselves on a collision course in Division 5 as the only "A" league teams in the bracket.


Milpitas is projected as the No. 1 seed in Division 5. (Nick Borgia/Prep2Prep)


(1) LELAND (30)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. 5 Champ

(8) Mt. Pleasant (18.33)

(4) HOMESTEAD (25.5)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) Mills (24.25)

(3) ALISAL (28.3)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) Pacific Grove (21)

(2) SANTA CRUZ (29.33)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) Piedmont Hills (19.83)



Here's a brief look at the at-large teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out based on our projection process. This only includes teams that meet the top six in league requirement (actual CCS points in parentheses - not combined with CalPreps rankings points). Note: the point totals are not in necessarily in order because the at-large teams are selected by a combination of CCS points and weighted ranks based on CalPreps.





BVAL-MH Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
7-0-0
10-3-0
6-1-0
9-2-0
4-3-0
7-6-0
4-3-0
6-4-0
3-4-0
3-7-0
2-5-0
4-8-0
1-6-0
2-8-0
1-6-0
1-9-0
BVAL-ST Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
6-1-0
11-2-0
6-1-0
7-3-0
6-1-0
7-4-0
4-3-0
7-3-0
3-4-0
6-4-0
2-5-0
4-6-0
1-6-0
3-6-0
0-7-0
0-10-0
BVAL-WV Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
7-0-0
7-4-0
5-2-0
5-5-0
4-3-0
5-5-0
3-4-0
5-5-0
3-4-0
4-5-0
3-4-0
3-7-0
1-6-0
1-10-0
PAL-Bay Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
5-0-0
7-4-0
3-2-0
8-5-0
1-4-0
5-7-0
0-5-0
1-9-0
PAL-Ocean Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
5-0-0
10-1-0
4-1-0
8-3-0
3-2-0
8-4-0
2-3-0
5-5-0
1-4-0
3-7-0
0-5-0
3-7-0
SCVAL-DA Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
6-0-0
9-3-0
5-1-0
12-1-0
3-3-0
8-6-0
3-3-0
7-4-0
3-3-0
7-5-0
1-5-0
4-6-0
0-6-0
1-9-0
SCVAL-EC Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
5-1-0
8-3-0
5-1-0
8-4-0
4-2-0
8-2-0
3-3-0
4-6-0
2-4-0
5-5-0
2-4-0
3-7-0
0-6-0
1-8-0
WCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
6-1-0
13-1-0
6-1-0
11-2-0
6-1-0
9-3-0
4-3-0
6-5-0
3-4-0
4-7-0
2-5-0
3-8-0
1-6-0
3-7-0
PAL-Lake Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
4-1-0
8-3-0
4-1-0
7-3-0
3-2-0
5-5-0
2-3-0
2-8-0
2-3-0
2-8-0
PCAL-Cypress Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
5-1-0
10-3-0
4-2-0
8-3-0
4-2-0
7-3-0
3-3-0
6-4-0
1-5-0
3-7-0
PCAL-Santa Lucia Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
6-0-0
7-4-0
5-1-0
7-3-0
3-2-0
5-3-0
3-3-0
3-7-0
2-3-0
2-7-0
1-5-0
1-8-0
0-6-0
1-9-0
PCAL-Gabilan Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
7-0-0
9-2-0
6-1-0
8-3-0
4-3-0
6-6-0
4-3-0
5-6-0
3-4-0
6-6-0
3-4-0
5-5-0
1-6-0
1-9-0
0-7-0
0-10-0
PCAL-Mission Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
5-1-0
9-2-0
5-1-0
6-5-0
3-3-0
5-5-0
2-4-0
4-6-0
1-5-0
3-7-0
0-6-0
0-10-0