Prep2Prep CCS Football Playoff Projections
Los Gatos and Jackson Cookus are in line for either a high seed in Division 2 or low seed in Division 1. (Nick Borgia/Prep2Prep)

Prep2Prep CCS Playoff Projections

UPDATED 10/17/2019

There were a few surprising results from CCS action last week that have impacted the newest playoff projections. Among them were St. Ignatius' win over Saint Francis to secure the fourth automatic bid from the WCAL - at least for now - and Gunn knocking off Saratoga to take a path to the SCVAL-El Camino title.

Beginning next week, we will add in bonus points for out of section league champions. This will obviously impact teams who played such teams in the preseason in a positive way.

Once again this week, we start with a review of how the new bylaws for the CCS football playoffs work. The new playoff format is highly dependent on rankings supplied by CalPreps. We won't go into great detail here, but the bylaws are available here (PDF).

Instead what we will do is give a brief rundown of the new system. As has been the case the past several years, there will be 40 CCS playoff teams. It is how those teams are selected that has gone through a massive change.

Of the 40, 33 teams will receive automatic bids based on their finish in their respective league standings. The five "A" leagues will produce four automatic bids each, with the remaining 13 berths coming from the various "B" and "C" leagues throughout the section. In general, "B" leagues will get two bids and "C" leagues one bid.

For the most part, the CCS point calculation is the same as it has been for the past few years with one addition: teams get additional credit for playing teams in the CalPreps Top 150 California ranking: 2 points for a team ranked in the top 100 and 1 point for a team ranked 101-150. Furthermore, teams outside of CCS are classified as "A", "B" and "C" teams based on their CalPreps ranking.

The 10 best at-large point totals are put into a pool and then their CalPreps rankings are taken into account to choose the top 7. Once the entire field of 40 is selected, a weighted score of the teams' CalPreps ranking and their CCS point total is produced and then the top 8 teams go to Division 1, the next 8 to Division 2 and so on down to Division 5.

We predict the results of all games that have not been played yet and combine them with the results of games that have taken place. While we are not yet projecting league champions in out-of-section areas, we are applying their CalPreps ranking as of this point of the season.

Here are the projected CCS league champs:

BVAL-Mount Hamilton: Oak Grove
BVAL-Santa Teresa: Branham
BVAL-West Valley: Mt. Pleasant
PAL-Bay: Menlo-Atherton
PAL-Ocean: Half Moon Bay
PAL-Lake: Mills
PCAL-Gabilan: Salinas
PCAL-Mission: Monte Vista Christian
PCAL-Cypress: North Monterey County
PCAL-Santa Lucia: Pacific Grove
SCVAL-De Anza: Wilcox
SCVAL-El Camino: Gunn
WCAL: Serra

Note: Lincoln would have earned a spot in the field, but the Lions do not participate in CCS playoffs because of their commitment to the annual Big Bone Game against San Jose on Thanksgiving Day.

For the formula used to calculate CCS points, please click here (PDF).

NOTE: Adjusted CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.

DIVISION 1

Serra remains far and away the No. 1 overall seed. With the new CCS points formula, the Padres are a good eight points ahead of their nearest rival Valley Christian. Saint Francis was in line for a No. 3 seed, but the loss to St. Ignatius has moved the Lancers all the way down to fifth, mainly because of the subsequent drop in their CalPreps ranking. Wilcox is now in prime position for the No. 3 seed and could even move to No. 2 if Valley Christian loses a game we have them projected as winning, which would be all of them except for Serra.

The SI win also boosted the Wildcats into Division 1, bumping Los Gatos down to Division 2. The top five teams in the WCAL will likely wind up in Division 1 setting up a gauntlet for the three public school teams Wilcox, Menlo-Atherton and Half Moon Bay and guaranteeing at least one WCAL rematch in the first round.


Valley Christian is in good shape for a first-round home game in Division 1. (Brian Dewitt/Special to Prep2Prep)

(1) SERRA (79.5)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. 1 Champ

(8) Half Moon Bay (63.5)

(4) MENLO-ATHERTON (67.5)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) St. Francis (66)

(3) WILCOX (70.5)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) Archbishop Mitty (65)

(2) VALLEY CHRISTIAN (71)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) St. Ignatius (64)



DIVISION 2

Los Gatos' chances of a CCS title may have improved dramatically with St. Ignatius' win over Saint Francis as we now have the Wildcats projected as the No. 1 seed in Division 2, where they would have to be considered among the top 2-3 favorites.

Division 2 is still projected to consist solely of "A" league teams with Sacred Heart Prep, Salinas and Palo Alto in good shape for a top 4 seed. Bellarmine's overtime victory over Archbishop Riordan may have saved the Bells from a second straight season of missing the postseason.


Los Gatos is now the No. 1 projected seed in Division 2. (Dennis Putian/Special to Prep2Prep)

(1) LOS GATOS (62.5)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. 2 Champ

(8) Live Oak (51)

(4) PALO ALTO (57)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) Palma (55.75)

(3) SALINAS (57.25)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) The King's Academy (54)

(2) SACRED HEART PREP (58)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) Bellarmine College Prep (53)



DIVISION 3

If Oak Grove completes an undefeated league season, we can expect the Eagles to nab one of the top two seeds in Division 3. San Benito currently projects as the No. 1 seed and would host Monte Vista Christian, a team from the PCAL-Mission.

Local rivals Leland and Branham are still in line for a first-round matchup for San Jose public school supremacy.


San Benito is projected as the top seed in Division 3. (Brian Dewitt/Special to Prep2Prep)

(1) SAN BENITO (50)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. 3 Champ

(8) Monte Vista Christian (40.5)

(4) LELAND (46)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) Branham (45.5)

(3) APTOS (47)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) Seaside (44.5)

(2) OAK GROVE (50)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) Mountain View (43.5)



DIVISION 4

Overfelt checks in as the No. 8 seed in Division 4, but that can change dramatically depending on how the Royals do against the top two teams in the BVAL-Santa Teresa Division - Branham and Willow Glen - in the coming weeks. Overfelt played a difficult non-league schedule and has been dominant so far in the BVAL-ST. The Royals host Branham Friday night in a game that may very well decide the league title.

Right now Overfelt is projected to play Soquel, which is in great shape for the top seed in Division 4.


Willow Glen is still projected as an automatic bid from the BVAL-Santa Teresa Division but that could change if Overfelt remains hot. (Ryan McCarthy/Prep2Prep)

(1) SOQUEL (40.5)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. 4 Champ

(8) Overfelt (30.5)

(4) BURLINGAME (35.5)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) Carmel (33.5)

(3) TERRA NOVA (37)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) North Monterey County (33)

(2) HILLSDALE (37.5)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) Willow Glen (32.5)



DIVISION 5

Mills, the projected PAL-Lake champion, heads an eclectic group of teams in Division 5. The Vikings appear to be locked in to a first-round game against the champion of the BVAL-West Valley Division, which right now is Mt. Pleasant. The BVAL-WV champ is expected to come in with the overall field's lowest point total.

Gunn's win over Saratoga now has the Titans in the field and could set up a rematch between the two SCVAL-El Camino rivals. Saratoga has dropped down to Division 5, which would improve the Falcons' chances of a CCS title, especially if they can hold on to the No. 2 seed.


Santa Teresa is projected as the No. 6 seed in Division 5. (Ryan McCarthy/Prep2Prep)


(1) MILLS (30)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. 5 Champ

(8) Mt. Pleasant (16)

(4) MONTEREY (26)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) Gunn (26)

(3) SANTA CLARA (28)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) Santa Teresa (23)

(2) SARATOGA (28.5)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) Pacific Grove (20)



Here's a brief look at the at-large teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out based on our projection process. This only includes teams that meet the top six in league requirement (actual CCS points in parentheses - not combined with CalPreps rankings points). Note: the point totals are not in necessarily in order because the at-large teams are selected by a combination of CCS points and weighted ranks based on CalPreps.





BVAL-MH Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
3-0-0
4-2-0
3-0-0
4-2-0
3-1-0
4-2-0
2-1-0
5-1-0
2-1-0
3-3-0
0-3-0
1-5-0
0-3-0
0-6-0
0-4-0
0-7-0
BVAL-ST Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
3-0-0
6-0-0
3-0-0
4-2-0
2-1-0
5-1-0
2-1-0
5-1-0
2-1-0
3-3-0
0-3-0
2-3-0
0-3-0
2-4-0
0-3-0
0-6-0
BVAL-WV Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
3-0-0
3-3-0
2-1-0
3-3-0
2-1-0
2-4-0
2-1-0
2-4-0
1-2-0
2-3-0
1-2-0
2-4-0
0-3-0
0-6-0
PAL-Bay Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
1-0-0
3-3-0
1-1-0
3-3-0
0-2-0
3-3-0
0-2-0
1-5-0
PAL-Ocean Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
2-0-0
6-0-0
1-1-0
5-1-0
1-1-0
4-2-0
1-1-0
3-3-0
0-1-0
3-3-0
0-1-0
3-3-0
SCVAL-DA Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
3-0-0
5-2-0
2-1-0
6-1-0
2-1-0
5-2-0
1-1-0
5-1-0
1-2-0
4-3-0
0-2-0
1-5-0
0-2-0
1-5-0
SCVAL-EC Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
2-1-0
5-2-0
2-1-0
4-3-0
2-1-0
3-4-0
1-1-0
5-1-0
1-1-0
2-4-0
1-2-0
4-3-0
0-2-0
1-4-0
WCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
3-0-0
6-0-0
2-1-0
4-2-0
2-1-0
4-2-0
1-2-0
2-4-0
1-2-0
2-4-0
0-3-0
2-4-0
PAL-Lake Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
1-0-0
5-1-0
1-0-0
3-3-0
1-0-0
1-5-0
0-1-0
3-3-0
0-1-0
0-6-0
PCAL-Cypress Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
2-0-0
4-2-0
2-1-0
6-1-0
1-1-0
4-2-0
1-2-0
4-3-0
0-2-0
2-4-0
PCAL-Santa Lucia Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
3-0-0
4-1-0
2-0-0
3-3-0
2-1-0
4-3-0
2-1-0
2-5-0
0-2-0
0-5-0
0-2-0
0-6-0
0-3-0
1-6-0
PCAL-Gabilan Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
3-0-0
5-1-0
3-0-0
4-2-0
2-1-0
4-2-0
2-1-0
3-3-0
1-2-0
3-3-0
1-2-0
3-3-0
0-3-0
0-6-0
0-3-0
0-6-0
PCAL-Mission Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
2-0-0
6-0-0
2-0-0
3-3-0
1-1-0
3-3-0
1-2-0
3-4-0
0-3-0
2-5-0
0-3-0
0-7-0