Based on our projections, Leigh is in a three-way tie with Bellarmine and Sacred Heart Prep for the final at-large Open playoff spot.
Prep2Prep CCS Playoff Projections
CORRECTION: Because of an error in our algorithm pertaining to Harker, we missed a point for Cupertino and Santa Clara. This means there is actually a four-way tie for the No. 4 seed in Division
4. This will require a lottery to determine the seeds because no four-way tiebreaker would settle the tie among Cupertino, Santa Clara, Alisal and Independence.
After a wild final weekend of CCS action, we were left with a handful of significant three-way ties - both involving Sacred Heart Prep. In the PAL-Bay Division, there was a three-way tie among
Sacred Heart Prep, Terra Nova and Burlingame for the fourth and final automatic bid. All teams were still tied after the first two PAL tiebreakers, so we had to move down to the CCS
point tiebreaker, which would knock Sacred Heart Prep out of the tie, leaving Terra Nova and Burlingame. In that case, Terra Nova would earn the automatic bid based on its win over Burlingame.
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The other three-way tie we have is for the final at-large bid in the Open playoffs among Sacred Heart Prep, Bellarmine and Leigh. According to our interpretation of the CCS bylaws, no
tiebreakers would be able to resolve the tie, leaving us with a blind draw for the playoff spot. In our primary bracket, we assumed Sacred Heart Prep won the draw, but also present
the different brackets based on Bellarmine or Leigh gaining the final spot.
There was yet another significant three-way tie affecting the seedings for the non-Open division playoffs as Hillsdale, South San Francisco and The King's Academy wound up tied for the
second and final automatic bid from the PAL-Ocean Division. By the PAL bylaws, Hillsdale would win out based on the CCS point tiebreaker.
A reminder that the three champs of the Open Divisions and the the top two second-place finishers receive automatic berths to the Northern California playoffs.
For the formula used to calculate CCS points, please click
ASSUMPTION 1: in the case of ties to determine automatic qualifiers, we went with the team with the higher CCS point total except in a few
cases noted below.
ASSUMPTION 2: for non-CCS teams, we projected their win total based on their current record to determine their classification (A, B, C).
ASSUMPTION 3: games that have not yet been played are included in the point totals (and counted as losses).
NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.
OPEN DIVISION 1
Perhaps no team will be more interested in what happens with the final playoff spot than Wilcox, which would land in Division 1 if Bellarmine does not make the playoffs and into
the much tougher Division 2 field if the Bells do qualify. Wilcox would host a San Benito team it defeated handily if it lands in Division 1; if not, it would face a trip to
WCAL power St. Francis.
Milpitas has locked up the No. 1 seed and is projected to face league mate Palo Alto in the first round.
Wilcox (1,954) is the lowest enrollment school in Division 1 (assuming Bellarmine doesn't win the draw).
If Bellarmine wins the draw:
If Leigh wins the draw, there would be no change in Division 1.
OPEN DIVISION 2
Serra clinched the top seed in Division 2 with its win over St. Francis to claim the WCAL title outright. Valley Christian would edge Oak Grove on a tiebreaker
for the No. 4 seed.
This is the most volatile division as to what happens with the tiebreaker for the final at-large berth. Serra could wind up playing either Leigh - which finished
last in the BVAL-Mount Hamilton - or WCAL rival Mitty in the first round. Aptos is another team that will be paying close attention; the Mariners could face a first-round
matchup at WCAL runner-up Valley Christian or a trip to a much more forgiving Division 3, where they would be the No. 2 seed.
Oak Grove (1,901) is the highest enrollment school in Division 2; Aptos (1,459) is the lowest (assuming SHP wins the draw).
If Bellarmine wins the draw:
If Leigh wins the draw:
OPEN DIVISION 3
One thing for certain is that Half Moon Bay will be the top seed in Division 3. If SHP wins the draw, the two teams would square off for a second consecutive week. Seaside and
Live Oak are tied on points - we flipped a virtual coin and it landed in Seaside's favor for the No. 3 seed.
Burlingame (1,882) is the highest enrollment school in the current Division 3 field (assuming SHP wins the draw).
If Bellarmine or Leigh wins the draw:
1-Half Moon Bay
6-Sacred Heart Cathedral
The correction noted at the top points out that there is actually a four-way tie for the No. 4 seed in Division 4 at 20.5 points among Independence, Alisal, Santa Clara
and Cupertino. This was because Harker was incorrectly classified and should have been counted as an "A" league out-of-section opponent, resulting in an extra bonus
point for Santa Clara and Cupertino.
Gilroy dropped back to Division 5 in our final projection. This leaves Leland as the top seed in Division 4 after it won the BVAL-Santa Teresa title in a tiebreaker over
Independence. According to our projections, we have four BVAL-ST teams in the field - all in Division 4. Two of them - Branham and Willow Glen - would meet in the first
round in our final projection.
Branham (1,611) is the smallest enrollment school in Division 4.
With Gilroy back in Division 5 as the top seed, Menlo slots into the No. 2 seed just ahead of Soledad.
Gilroy (1,599) is the highest enrollment school in Division 5.
Here's a brief look at the at-large teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five in each classification that would be left out if the season ended now. Only six teams
from any one league can qualify; these listings reflect that requirement.