Santa Teresa is projected as the No. 6 seed in CCS Open Division 1.
(Enily Liu/Prep2Prep)
Prep2Prep CCS Playoff Projections
UPDATED 10/12/2016
The big news this week is that according to our latest projections, Valley Christian would not only wind up in the Open Division 2 playoffs, but there is also one enrollment school
beneath the Warriors (St. Ignatius). This is partly a result of Sacred Heart Prep moving into the Division 3 playoffs simply by picking up its first win of the season to earn an automatic
bid from the PAL-Bay Division. The same goes for Terra Nova, which picked up its first league win last week.
Before we get into the details, just a reminder that our projections are projections in the sense that we reveal what the
seedings would look like if the season ended today, not how we expect teams to fare from this point on.
We are still early in league races so there are still quite a few teams getting partial credit as league champs. For the first time, we are considering league champions bonus points
for teams outside of CCS now that league play has begun pretty much everywhere.
Finally, another reminder that the three champs of the Open Divisions and the the top two second-place finishers receive automatic berths to the Northern
California playoffs.
For the formula used to calculate CCS points, please click
here (PDF).
ASSUMPTION 1: in the case of ties to determine automatic qualifiers, we went with the team with the higher CCS point total except in a few
cases noted below.
ASSUMPTION 2: for non-CCS teams, we projected their win total based on their current record to determine their classification (A, B, C).
ASSUMPTION 3: games that have not yet been played are included in the point totals (and counted as losses).
NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.
OPEN DIVISION 1
Bellarmine is in the unfamiliar position of getting in as an at-large team for the time being because there is a four-way tie for second place in the West Catholic Athletic League
after three league games. The Bells find themselves tied with St. Francis, which was ranked No. 1 all season before suffering its first loss, as well as Mitty and resurgent Serra,
which pulled off the upset of the previously undefeated Lancers. Of those WCAL powers, however, only Bellarmine is projected to participate in Division 1.
San Benito is beginning to run away with the top seed and could wind up No. 1 even if it fails to win the Monterey Bay League-Gabilan Division. Wilcox has taken over sole possession
of first place in the Santa Clara Valley Athletic League, but still has a crucial date with Milpitas coming up.
Wilcox (1,994) is the lowest enrollment school in Division 1.
OPEN DIVISION 2
Division 2 is looking like a bloodbath at the moment, with Valley Christian moving in from Division 3 and perennial power Serra moving into playoff position with its second
consecutive WCAL victory, the upset overtime win over St. Francis. At the moment, five of the eight teams in Division 2 are projected to come from the WCAL. This would mean
unavoidable matchups of league rivals in the first round as Division 2 would have the feel of a WCAL playoff.
Los Gatos is just a half-game behind Wilcox in the SCVAL and with a win over Milpitas, can take over pole position in the league with a win over Wilcox October 28. In the meantime,
the Wildcats have a pair of winnable games coming up against Santa Clara and Palo Alto.
Los Gatos (1,971) is the highest enrollment school in Division 2; St. Ignatius (1,467) is the lowest.
OPEN DIVISION 3
Division 3 would be much more wide open without the presence of Valley Christian, which would be a heavy favorite. As it stands now, Palma would have to be considered the favorite.
Whereas Division 2 is WCAL-heavy, the Peninsula Athletic League-Bay Division figures to dominate Division 3. As of now, four of the five playoff teams from the PAL-Bay land
in Division 3.
Hillsdale (1,386) is the highest enrollment school in the current field.
DIVISION 4
One indication of how wide-open we expect Division 4 to be is that the top seven seeds are separated by just two CCS points. We have a three-way tie for the No. 1 seed
at the moment, with Westmont likely having the clearest path to winning it outright if it can hold off Branham for the BVAL-Santa Teresa crown.
Soledad is the smallest enrollment school at 1,431.
DIVISION 5
The biggest story revolves around Aptos. Not only is there a question as to whether the Mariners land in Division 4 or 5 but they could also opt up
to the Open Division playoffs, which would further shake things up.
For now, Aptos has to be considered the favorite regardless of seed, along with undefeated Half Moon Bay, which currently owns the No. 3 seed.
Menlo is a team that has flown under the radar. If the Knights continue to win and capture at least a share of the PAL-Ocean Division title, they would
be in line for a first-round home game and a high seed.
Aptos (1,411) is the highest enrollment school in Division 5.
Here's a brief look at the at-large teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five in each classification that would be left out if the season ended now. This
only includes teams that meet the top six in league requirement.
