At the moment, Mountain View is projected to play neighboring St. Francis in the Open Division 1 first round.
(Kunal Pandit/Prep2Prep)
Prep2Prep CCS Playoff Projections
UPDATED 10/5/2016
Even this early in the season, the playoff picture is beginning to take shape in the Central Coast Section.
Before we get into the details, just a reminder that our projections are projections in the sense that we reveal what the
seedings would look like if the season ended today, not how we expect teams to fare from this point on.
We are still early in league races so there are still quite a few teams getting partial credit as league champs. We are ignoring league champions outside of CCS for the time
being because many other sections have not begun league play yet.
Finally, another reminder that the three champs of the Open Divisions and the the top two second-place finishers receive automatic berths to the Northern
California playoffs.
For the formula used to calculate CCS points, please click
here (PDF).
ASSUMPTION 1: in the case of ties to determine automatic qualifiers, we went with the team with the higher CCS point total except in a few
cases noted below.
ASSUMPTION 2: for non-CCS teams, we projected their win total based on their current record to determine their classification (A, B, C).
ASSUMPTION 3: games that have not yet been played are included in the point totals (and counted as losses).
NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.
OPEN DIVISION 1
The seeds are still likely to shift quite significantly but it's fun to ponder a matchup of area rivals Wilcox and Bellarmine in the first round of the Open Division 1 playoffs. San
Benito has a good shot at the No. 1 seed even if it doesn't go on to with the MBL-Gabilan Division title because its main challenger Palma will not be in Division 1.
With Milpitas suffering an upset to Los Gatos last week, Wilcox is now the leader in the SCVAL-De Anza after two full weeks. Salinas is tied for first with San Benito in the MBL-Gabilan
while Menlo-Atherton looks like an early frontrunner in the PAL-Bay.
Wilcox (1,994) is the lowest enrollment school in Division 1.
OPEN DIVISION 2
If the BVAL-Mount Hamilton race comes down to Oak Grove and Leigh, the winner will likely wind up with at least the No. 2 seed in Division 2. This assumes St. Francis goes
on to win the West Catholic Athletic League and takes home the No. 1 seed as expected. Aragon would also be a contender for a top seed if it can win the PAL-Bay Division.
This set of projections would create some interesting matchups in Division 2. St. Francis is tabbed to play neighbor Mountain View with longtime powers Mitty and Los Gatos
squaring off in what would be a fascinating 3-6 matchup.
Palo Alto (1,985) is the highest enrollment school in Division 2; Aragon (1,521) is the lowest.
OPEN DIVISION 3
The big news in Division 3 is that Valley Christian is now the highest enrollment school, which means if one more smaller school displaces a school with a higher enrollment
than VC and all else stays the same, the Warriors would wind up in a crowded Division 2 field. As it stands now, Valley Christian would be a heavy favorite in Division 3.
Palma will almost assuredly wind up as a playoff team, in which case the Chieftains would definitely be in Division 3. If Palma wins the MBL-Gabilan, it would be in line for
a top seed.
Valley Christian (1,512) is the highest enrollment school in the current field.
DIVISION 4
With Aptos dropping down to Division 5 in this projection, Division 4 looks wide open on paper.
Westmont and Branham are currently tied for first in the BVAL-Santa Teresa Division; that division champ will likely wind up with a high seed in Division 4.
Soledad is the smallest enrollment school at 1,431.
DIVISION 5
If Aptos lands here, that would definitely shake up the prospects in Division 5 as the Mariners would be heavy favorites regardless of seed.
Carmel has a good shot at maintaining the No. 1 seed if it can win out in the MTAL. Seaside is off to a great start and is a major contender
in the MBL-Pacific Division.
Aptos (1,411) is the highest enrollment school in Division 5.
Here's a brief look at the at-large teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five in each classification that would be left out if the season ended now. This
only includes teams that meet the top six in league requirement.
