P2P CCS Playoff Projections

UPDATE 11/6/2016 6:00 PM - This latest update takes into account results of key games played on Saturday. Barring any major changes or corrections, this should be our final projection for the Central Coast Section playoffs.

Details are provided below but to summarize, in the Open Division playoffs, we are projecting a tie between St. Ignatius and Mountain View for the final at-large playoff spot. This will result in a coin flip, which came up in favor of Mountain View for the purposes of these brackets.

In Divisions 4/5, we have confirmed that Stevenson (18.3 points) will nab one of the final at-large spots. Stevenson played just nine games during the regular season, so a fairly complicated formula exists in the CCS bylaws to calculate its CCS point total. This was enough to overtake what would have been a four-way tie among the following teams for the last at-large spot: Branham, Sequoia, Capuchino and San Lorenzo Valley. Los Altos' win over Gunn Saturday locked up a spot for the Eagles. Think about this for a minute - if our numbers are correct, had Los Altos lost Saturday, we would have had a 5-way tie for the final at-large playoff spot.

UPDATE 11/6/2016 3:00 PM - We have updated the latest projections with corrected point total for Stevenson. After the Pirates won their final game of the regular season, we now have their total point total at 18.3. That is enough to merit serious consideration as one of the final at-large teams in Division 4/5.

UPDATE: This update takes into account games played Friday night. We have received all the scores of games involving teams with Central Coast Section playoff aspirations. As usual, if you see any results that are not correct, please let us know here. For out of section results that are relevant to the CCS seedings, we have updated based on the results we have received. See below for updated games and playoff scenarios.

We are also including projected brackets in case Aptos decides to opt up and noting what would happen in either case of the Open Division coin flip for the final at-large spot. Keep in mind also that some teams have games still to play on Saturday and we have not assumed results for those games, so seedings could be impacted.

As promised, here are the Central Coast Section projections with a slightly different twist. Earlier in the week, we looked at teams that have already clinched a spot in the playoffs. You can re-visit that breakdown here. For this projection, we look at possible scenarios heading into the final weekend of the regular season.

NOTE: we took a closer look at the Peninsula Athletic League bylaws and they seemed to indicate that even though Half Moon Bay and Menlo wound up tied for first in the Ocean Division that all ties must be broken. But we have been assured by a reliable source that teams that played against Half Moon Bay or Menlo will receive 0.5 bonus points even though the way the bylaws are written point to Half Moon Bay as the outright champion.

Here's a look at some of the key games and scenarios involving the final Open Division spots.

OPEN DIVISIONS

Aragon 37, Hillsdale 27: Aragon earns the final automatic bid from the Peninsula Athletic League-Bay Division. Hillsdale is eliminated from playoff contention.

Palo Alto 36, Mountain View 29
Los Gatos 49, Saratoga 7: These results mean that Palo Alto has earned the fourth automatic playoff bid from the Santa Clara Valley Athletic League-De Anza Division. Saratoga has locked up an at-large bid. It looks like Mountain View will wind up tied with St. Ignatius at 19 points for the final at-large bid. That would result in a coin flip.

St. Francis 35, St. Ignatius 12: Even with the loss - and Campolindo's loss to Clayton Valley Charter which dropped SI to 19 points - the Wildcats still have a shot at the final at-large berth. Right now, we have them projected in a tie with Mountain View, which would result in a coin flip.

North Salinas 41, Alvarez 22: Alvarez could have had a shot, but the loss eliminates the Eagles from at-large contention.

To summarize, here is a team-by-team look at what needs to happen for teams who have not yet clinched and their projected chances of making the Open field of 24.

ARAGON (23 CCS points): The Dons are in as an automatic qualifier with their win over Hillsdale.

ARCHBISHOP MITTY (22.82): Mitty was in regardless based on Friday night's results.

SANTA TERESA (21): Despite a loss to Leigh, the Saints should still get in as an at-large team with 21 points.

SARATOGA (20.5): Despite a loss to Los Gatos, Saratoga should have no trouble getting in.

ST. IGNATIUS (19): SI did benefit from Aragon's win over Hillsdale - a Hillsdale win would have eliminated the Wildcats. But we have SI in a coin flip for the final at-large bid after dropping 0.5 points with Campolindo's loss to Clayton Valley.

MOUNTAIN VIEW (19): The loss to Palo Alto cost the Spartans a shot at an automatic bid. As a result, we have them in a tie with St. Ignatius for the final at-large bid at 19 points. For the purposes of the bracket, our virtual coin flip landed in favor of Mountain View.

PALO ALTO (19.5): Palo Alto earned an automatic bid with its win over Mountain View and Saratoga's loss to Los Gatos.

HILLSDALE (18): Hillsdale was eliminated with its loss to Aragon.

ALVAREZ (17): Alvarez was eliminated with its loss to North Salinas.

DIVISIONS 4/5

It will certainly be an interesting discussion at the Division 4/5 meeting, but our projection indicates that the four teams locked together at 18 points - Branham, San Lorenzo Valley, Sequoia and Capuchino - will be left out.

Westmont 17, Branham 13: Westmont scored a touchdown with 34 seconds left to dash Branham's hopes for a league title. Westmont earns the automatic bid from the BVAL-Santa Teresa Division while Branham is likely going to have to win a coin flip to get in.

Aptos 38, San Lorenzo Valley 7: According to our projections, the loss to Aptos Saturday will eliminate the Cougars.

Scotts Valley 55, Santa Cruz 6: The Falcons clinched the second automatic bid from the SCCAL with the win.

Gunderson 51, Overfelt 42: By winning this wild one, the Grizzlies forged a three-way tie atop the BVAL-West Valley Division. We have Gunderson winning the tiebreaker by virtue of its total CCS points.

Menlo School 31, Sacred Heart Prep 14: Menlo would have been in regardless of this result, but a win will certainly help with seeding.

Gilroy 37, North Monterey County 14: The win should be enough to clinch at an-large berth for the Mustangs.

Los Altos 46, Gunn 7: As expected, the Eagles locked up a playoff spot with an easy win over Gunn.

Silver Creek 39, Independence 27: This was essentially a play-in game, so Independence is eliminated with the loss. Silver Creek is in very good shape.

Menlo-Atherton 63, Woodside 14: This loss eliminates Woodside from playoff contention.

Carmel 48, Pacific Grove 37: The Breakers gave it a valiant try, but the loss to MTAL champion Carmel means they will not be participating in the 2016 CCS playoffs.

The King's Academy 49, Jefferson 25: The win puts TKA in good shape for an at-large bid.

Sequoia 36, Carlmont 7: Sequoia gave itself a chance by beating Carlmont and the Branham loss helps.

To summarize, here is a team-by-team look at what needs to happen for teams who have not yet clinched and their projected chances of making the Divisions 4-5 field of 16.

SCOTTS VALLEY (21.5 CCS points): The Falcons clinched an automatic bid by defeating Santa Cruz.

GILROY (21): Gilroy will get in with its win over North Monterey County.

LOS ALTOS (20): The Eagles are in with their win over Gunn.

THE KING'S ACADEMY (19): King's is in with its win after getting some much needed help in other games.

OVERFELT (15.5): The Royals gave it a valiant effort, but the thrilling loss to Gunderson will cost them a shot at a CCS playoff bid.

GUNDERSON (19): Gunderson's win against Overfelt means it will earn the automatic bid from the BVAL-West Valley Division through a three-team tiebreaker over the Royals and Del Mar.

INDEPENDENCE (17.83): The Sixers were eliminated with their loss to Silver Creek.

SILVER CREEK (18.5): Silver Creek took care of business by defeating Independence. Now all the Raiders need is a loss by San Lorenzo Valley - against Aptos - or Los Altos or Pacific Grove. In other words, it is looking very good for the Raiders.

STEVENSON (18.3): Stevenson is in with the losses by San Lorenzo Valley and Pacific Grove on Saturday.

BRANHAM (18): The Stevenson situation cost Branham a shot at a coin flip for the final at-large spot.

PACIFIC GROVE (17): The loss to Carmel eliminated the Breakers.

WOODSIDE (17.5): Woodside was eliminated with its loss to Menlo-Atherton.

SAN LORENZO VALLEY (18): The loss to Aptos and the Stevenson situation cost the Cougars a shot at a coin flip for the final spot.

SEQUOIA (18): The Stevenson situation cost Sequoia a shot at a coin flip for the final spot.

Finally, another reminder that the three champs of the Open Divisions and the the top two second-place finishers receive automatic berths to the Northern California playoffs.

For the formula used to calculate CCS points, please click here (PDF).

ASSUMPTION 1: in the case of ties to determine automatic qualifiers, we went with the team with the higher CCS point total except in a few cases noted below.

ASSUMPTION 2: for non-CCS teams, we projected their win total based on their current record to determine their classification (A, B, C).

ASSUMPTION 3: games that have not yet been played are included in the point totals (and counted as losses).

NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.

OPEN DIVISION 1

We have San Benito and Menlo-Atherton in a tie for the No. 1 seed. Both teams beat Sacred Heart Prep, which means we would need a coin flip to decide the top seed. Our virtual coin flip awarded the top seed to San Benito.

Serra's win over Bellarmine Saturday actually dropped Wilcox into the No. 8 seed in Division 1 because Wilcox played Valley Christian, which wound up in a three-way tie for the WCAL title. This means the Chargers will not be playing rival Milpitas in the first round as earlier projected. Instead, Wilcox gets a rematch against top-seeded San Benito if the Balers win the coin flip against Menlo-Atherton.

There was a tie for the No. 6 seed between Salinas and Santa Teresa, which will be decided by a coin flip.

Wilcox (1,994) is the lowest enrollment school in Division 1.

Salinas is projected as the No. 6 seed in Division 1. (Keanu Biggers/Prep2Prep)

(1) SAN BENITO (30)	#1 vs. #8 Winner	Semifinals	Open Div. 1 Champ
(8) Wilcox (20.83)
(4) BELLARMINE COLLEGE PREP (23.5)	#4 vs. #5 Winner
(5) Piedmont Hills (22.5)
(3) MILPITAS (26.5)	#3 vs. #6 Winner	Semifinals
(6) Salinas (21)
(2) MENLO-ATHERTON (30)	#2 vs. #7 Winner
(7) Santa Teresa (21)

NOTE: Aptos opting up would have no impact on Division 1.

OPEN DIVISION 2

If St. Ignatius wins the coin flip over Mountain View, this would impact the Division 2 seedings. Aragon would move into Division 2 in that scenario.

If the brackets hold, St. Francis would play neighboring Mountain View in the first round and Palo Alto would get a rematch with league champion Los Gatos.

Palo Alto (1,985) is the highest enrollment school in Division 2; Leigh (1,674) is the lowest.

Mountain View will need to win a coin flip to qualify for the CCS playoffs. (Kunal Pandit/Prep2Prep)

(1) ST. FRANCIS (31)	#1 vs. #8 Winner	Semifinals	Div. 2 Champ
(8) Mountain View (19)
(4) LEIGH (27)	#4 vs. #5 Winner
(5) Serra (24.5)
(3) OAK GROVE (28.33)	#3 vs. #6 Winner	Semifinals
(6) Archbishop Mitty (22.82)
(2) LOS GATOS (28.5)	#2 vs. #7 Winner
(7) Palo Alto (19)

NOTE: Aptos opting up would have no impact on Division 2.

OPEN DIVISION 3

If St. Ignatius wins the coin flip against Mountain View, the Wildcats would slot into Division 3 and Aragon would bump up to Division 2. It should be noted that Valley Christian is locked into Division 3.

Burlingame's win on Saturday over rival San Mateo means the Panthers avoid Valley Christian in the first round. Valley Christian and Palma are the clear favorites in Division 3.

Aragon (1,521) is the highest enrollment school in the current Division 3 field.

Palma defeated San Benito Friday for the MBL-Gabilan Division title. (Dylan Allen/Prep2Prep)

(1) PALMA (30.33)	#1 vs. #8 Winner	Semifinals	Div. 3 Champ
(8) Sacred Heart Prep (16.5)
(4) MONTE VISTA CHRISTIAN (25)	#4 vs. #5 Winner
(5) Aragon (23)
(3) LIVE OAK (26)	#3 vs. #6 Winner	Semifinals
(6) Burlingame (22)
(2) VALLEY CHRISTIAN (30)	#2 vs. #7 Winner
(7) Saratoga (20.5)

NOTE: If Aptos were to opt up, the seeds would look like this:

1-PALMA (30.33)
2-VALLEY CHRISTIAN (30)
3-APTOS (27.5)
4-LIVE OAK (26)
5-MONTE VISTA CHRISTIAN (25)
6-ARAGON (23)
7-BURLINGAME (22)
8-SARATOGA (20.5)

DIVISION 4

The big news at the moment is that Aptos lands in Division 4 in the latest projection. Silver Creek earned a spot in the field with a win over Independence, but the Raiders would get the unenviable task of taking on Aptos unless the Mariners opt up.

Aptos is the smallest enrollment school at 1,411.

Homestead clinched an automatic bid to the CCS playoffs with a win over Cupertino last week. (Hanson Ma/Prep2Prep)

(1) APTOS (27.5)	#1 vs. #8 Winner	Semifinals	Div. 4 Champ
(8) Silver Creek (18.5)
(4) GILROY (21)	#4 vs. #5 Winner
(5) Homestead (20.5)
(3) SOLEDAD (21.5)	#3 vs. #6 Winner	Semifinals
(6) Los Altos (20)
(2) WESTMONT (24.83)	#2 vs. #7 Winner
(7) San Mateo (19.5)

NOTE: If Aptos were to opt up, the seeds would look like this:

1-WESTMONT (24.83)
2-SOLEDAD (21.5)
3-GILROY (21)
4-HOMESTEAD (20.5)
5-LOS ALTOS (20)
6-SAN MATEO (19.5)
7-GUNDERSON (19.15)
8-SILVER CREEK (18.5)

DIVISION 5

Robert Louis Stevenson gets into Division 5 field despite playing just nine games. We have the Pirates projected for another date with MTAL champ Carmel in the first round.

Menlo and Seaside are tied at 25 points apiece; our virtual coin flip came up in favor of the Knights.

Gunderson (1,146) is the highest enrollment school in Division 5.

Charlie Ferguson and Menlo are projected as the No. 2 seed in Division 5. (Courtesy Menlo School)

(1) CARMEL (28)	#1 vs. #8 Winner	Semifinals	Div. 5 Champ
(8) Robert Louis Stevenson (18.3)
(4) HALF MOON BAY (23)	#4 vs. #5 Winner
(5) Scotts Valley (21.5)
(3) SEASIDE (25)	#3 vs. #6 Winner	Semifinals
(6) The King's Academy (19.5)
(2) MENLO SCHOOL (25)	#2 vs. #7 Winner
(7) Gunderson (19.15)

NOTE: If Aptos were to opt up, the seeds would look like this:

1-CARMEL (28)
2-MENLO SCHOOL (25)
3-SEASIDE (25)
4-HALF MOON BAY (23)
5-SCOTTS VALLEY (21.5)
6-THE KING'S ACADEMY (19.5)
7-ROBERT LOUIS STEVENSON (18.3)
8-SACRED HEART PREP (16)

Here's a brief look at the at-large teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five in each classification that would be left out if the season ended now. This only includes teams that meet the top six in league requirement.