P2P Baseball CCS Playoff Projections
Valley Christian will be participating in the Open Division playoffs.

Prep2Prep CCS Baseball Playoff Projections

FINAL PROJECTIONS (5/12/2018)


Based on the latest information presented to Prep2Prep through games of May 11, we are releasing our projections for the 2018 Central Coast Section playoff tournaments. We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams that compete in the Central Coast Section, but it is possible that there are slight schedule variations for some teams.

These projections are based on our best available information; if you would like to correct a team's result, please contact Prep2Prep via email or tweet us @Prep2PrepSports. You can also leave comments on our Facebook page.

For more details on the CCS point system, please click here. A quick summary of how the teams are selected is below.

Here's a quick overview on the process: a total of 48 teams spread out over an 8-team Open Division and three enrollment-based divisions of 16, 16 and 8 teams, respectively, make up the field for the CCS Baseball Playoffs. Of the 48, 41 receive automatic bids based on their position in their league standings as follows: BVAL (8), PAL (6), SCVAL (6), MBL (6), WCAL (5), SCCAL (3), MTAL (3), WBAL (2) and PSAL (2).

The remaining seven at-large teams are selected based on a point system that awards teams based on results over the course of the last 22 games a team plays. One caveat: all league games must be included among the 22, so that if a team plays a league game that is not among its last 22 games, that league game is substituted in for the earliest played non-league game.

To be considered for an at-large berth, teams must have at least a .500 record in any one of the following: a) in league; b) in non-league; c) overall; d) over the last 22 games that are included in the CCS point calculation.

Leagues within CCS are designated as "A" (highest), "B" and "C". Wins against "A" teams count for 3 points; wins against "B" teams count for 2.5; and wins against "C" teams count for 2. Strip off one point from those totals in cases of ties, and two points for losses to respectively designed "A", "B" and "C" teams.

Teams outside of CCS are considered "B" teams unless they achieve a winning percentage of .700 or greater; in which case, they are considered "A" teams.

Finally, teams are awarded 2 points for playing an "A" league champion, 1.5 points for playing a "B" league champion and 1 point for playing a "C" league champion. This only applies to games against CCS teams - there is no bonus for playing league champs outside of CCS.

There is also a CCS bylaw that states that teams only get credit for playing a divisional league champion twice during league play. So for teams that play each other three times during the regular-season round robin, we must disregard the bonus points for the third meeting against the prospective league champ. This affects the following leagues: MBL-Gabilan, MBL-Pacific, MTAL, PAL-Lake and SCVAL-EC.

Teams also receive 8 points for being an "A" league champion, 7 for being a "B" league champion and 6 for being a "C" league champion.

There is an eight-team Open Division tournament for the top teams in the section. League champs - including tied champs - of the six "A" divisions - BVAL-MH, MBL-Gabilan, PAL-Bay, SCCAL, SCVAL-DA and WCAL - are automatically entered into this tournament. The next highest CCS point totals qualify for the Open Division.

With the regular season coming to an end, let's take a division-by-division look at every team's playoff prospects. A lock is a team that would almost for sure make the playoffs even if it lost the rest of its games. Teams "on the doorstep" would require a near collapse to miss out. The "bubble" consists of teams that are close, but still have work to do. "Hail Mary" teams need to win the rest of their games and possibly even then need some help to get in.

BVAL-Mount Hamilton (5 automatic bids)

LOCKS (5): Willow Glen (auto), Pioneer (auto), Leland (auto), Westmont (auto), Leigh (auto).

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE: none.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (3): Santa Teresa, Branham, Live Oak.

BVAL-Santa Teresa Division (2 automatic bids)

LOCKS (2): Piedmont Hills (auto), Lincoln (auto).

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE (1): Prospect. We have the Panthers (44 CCS points) as the first team out.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (5): Independence, Sobrato, Gunderson, Oak Grove, Mt. Pleasant.

BVAL-West Valley Division (1 automatic bid)

LOCKS (1): Silver Creek (auto). The Raiders defeated Evergreen Valley for the league title Thursday.

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE: none.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (7): Evergreen Valley, Del Mar, Overfelt, Andrew Hill, James Lick, San Jose, Yerba Buena.

MBL-Gabilan (5 automatic bids)

LOCKS (5): San Benito (auto), Gilroy (auto), Palma (auto), Monterey (auto), Christopher (auto).

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE: none.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (2): Salinas, Monte Vista Christian. Salinas' loss to Christopher Tuesday eliminated the Cowboys from playoff contention.

MBL-Pacific (1 automatic bid)

LOCKS (1): Alisal (auto).

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE (1): Alvarez. We have the Eagles (45 CCS) as the final at-large team in the field.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (5): Watsonville, Seaside, North Monterey County, North Salinas, Pajaro Valley.

MTAL (3 automatic bids)

LOCKS (3): Soledad (auto), King City (auto), Carmel (auto).

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE (1): Pacific Grove. The Breakers (41.5 points) are one of the first teams out by our projection.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (6): Stevenson, Gonzales, Greenfield, Trinity Christian, Anzar, Marina.

PAL-Bay (5 automatic bids)

LOCKS (4): Sacred Heart Prep (auto), Carlmont (auto), Hillsdale (auto), Terra Nova (auto), Burlingame (auto).

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE: none.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (3): Capuchino, Menlo, Sequoia. Cap lost its final regular-season game to lose playoff eligibility.

PAL-Ocean (2 automatic bids plus playoff with Lake champ)

LOCKS (3): The King's Academy (auto), Woodside (auto), Half Moon Bay (auto).

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE (1): Menlo-Atherton. It looks like the Bears (46) will earn one of the last at-large bids.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (4): Aragon, San Mateo, El Camino, South San Francisco.

PAL-Lake (0 automatic bids; playoff with PAL-Ocean)

LOCKS: none.

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE: none.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (5): Jefferson, Harker, Mills, Crystal Springs Uplands, Westmoor. Jefferson lost to Half Moon Bay in the CCS play-in game.

PSAL-North (1 automatic bid)

LOCKS (1): Alma Heights (auto). We have Alma Heights as the league champ.

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE: none.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (6): Summit Prep, Summit Shasta, Kehillah Jewish, Design Tech, Jewish Community, Mid-Peninsula.

PSAL-South (1 automatic bid)

LOCKS (1): Thomas More. Based on the results we have received, Thomas More defeated Pinewood in a playoff for the automatic bid.

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE: none.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (6): Pinewood, North Valley Baptist, DCP-Alum Rock, Latino College Prep, KIPP Collegiate, Woodside Priory.

SCCAL (3 automatic bids)

LOCKS (3): Santa Cruz (auto), St. Francis SCP (auto), Aptos (auto).

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE: none.

HAIL MARY (1): San Lorenzo Valley. SLV (42) is one of the first teams out by our projection.

OUT (3): Soquel, Scotts Valley, Harbor.

SCVAL-De Anza (4 automatic bids)

LOCKS (7): Palo Alto (auto), Los Gatos (auto), Wilcox (auto), Homestead (auto), Mountain View (auto), Los Altos, Cupertino. These teams all have very strong CCS point totals - technically, the first four listed have earned the automatic bids and the other three will get in as at-large teams.

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE: none.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (1): Milpitas.

SCVAL-El Camino (2 automatic bids)

LOCKS (2): Saratoga (auto), Monta Vista (auto).

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE (2): Lynbrook, Gunn. Lynbrook (48.5) is one of the final teams in; Gunn (41) one of the first few out.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (2): Santa Clara, Fremont.

WCAL (5 automatic bids)

LOCKS (6): Valley Christian (auto), Serra (auto), Archbishop Mitty (auto), St. Francis (auto), Bellarmine (auto), Sacred Heart Cathedral. The first five teams have already clinched the automatic berths and Sacred Heart Cathedral (53.5) has a very strong point total.

ON THE DOORSTEP: none.

BUBBLE: none.

HAIL MARY: none.

OUT (2): St. Ignatius, Archbishop Riordan.

Because the season is not over, we must make a few assumptions:

ASSUMPTION 1: points are calculated on the assumption that an individual team will lose the rest of its games. The bonus points for playing a league champion are included in the calculation. In other words, the point total you see represents the minimum point total for a given team.

ASSUMPTION 2: in calculating points awarded for playing league champions, points were split according to the number of teams currently tied for first place. For instance, per CCS rules, teams are awarded one point for playing a league champion; if a team played a team that is currently in a three-way tie for first, we credit the team 0.33 points. If two teams at the top of a league have not played the same number of games, we assume league champ based on points per game.

ASSUMPTION 3: teams will apply for CCS and we will use league bylaws to determine order of finish as applicable. For instance if two at-large teams apply for CCS from the same league, some league's bylaws mandate that the team that finished higher in the league standings must get in first whereas other leagues rank at-large teams based on CCS points. We are assuming no teams will pull out of consideration. If we cannot determine a league's bylaws, we will assume they rank by order of CCS points.

ASSUMPTION 4: some leagues hold a postseason tournament to fill out their allotment of automatic qualifiers. In those instances, we assumed the team(s) with the highest CCS point totals will receive the automatic bid.

ASSUMPTION 5: by CCS rules, a team must have at least a .500 record in league, overall or in the 22 games under consideration for its CCS point total. In the case of league and overall records, we simply took the team's record as of this date; for the 22-game consideration, we looked at the record for the games within the 22 that have already been played.

NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.

OPEN DIVISION: Forty-eight teams qualify for the CCS playoffs. After the 8 teams are selected for the Open Division, the rest of the field is placed into the playoff field based on enrollment; the top 16 enrollment schools in Division I, the next 16 in Division II and the last 8 in Division III.

There are seven automatic qualifiers for the Open Division: Willow Glen (BVAL-MH), San Benito (MBL-Gabilan), Sacred Heart Prep (PAL-Bay), Santa Cruz (SCCAL), Palo Alto (SCVAL-De Anza) and co-champs Serra and Valley Christian (WCAL). St. Francis is the lone at-large team in the Open.


San Benito has clinched the MBL-Gabilan and will play in the Open Division playoffs.

(1) VALLEY CHRISTIAN (70)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Open Div. Champ

(8) Sacred Heart Prep (63.5)

(4) SERRA (69)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) Palo Alto (67.5)

(3) SAN BENITO (70)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) Santa Cruz (67.5)

(2) WILLOW GLEN (70)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) St. Francis (67.5)



DIVISION I: After the 8 Open Division teams are selected, the top 16 teams by enrollment are placed in Division I.

We had to move Wilcox and Los Altos a few spots down to avoid the block of teams in their division at seeds 6-8.

The two smallest schools in Division I right now are Leland (1,926) and Lincoln (1,882).


Menlo-Atherton is projected as the No. 11 seed in Division I. (M-A instagram)

(1) LOS GATOS (66)          
           
(16) Lincoln (43.5)          
           
(8) CUPERTINO (53)          
           
(9) Alisal (50.5)          
           
(5) LELAND (55)          
           
(12) Wilcox (51)          
           
(4) PIEDMONT HILLS (56)          
           
(13) Los Altos (48.5)          
           
(6) HOMESTEAD (54.5)          
           
(11) Menlo-Atherton (46)          
           
(3) CARLMONT (57.5)          
           
(14) Silver Creek (45.5)          
           
(7) MOUNTAIN VIEW (54.5)          
           
(10) Monta Vista (46)          
           
(2) BELLARMINE COLLEGE PREP (62.5)          
           
(15) Alvarez (45)          


DIVISION II: The next 16 teams as ranked by enrollment are placed in Division II.

Woodside (1,846) and Lynbrook (1,828) are the highest enrollment schools in Division II; Monterey (1,307) and King City (1,078) are the lowest.


St. Ignatius is projected to land in Division II. (Twitter @SIScores)

(1) ARCHBISHOP MITTY (59.5)          
           
(16) Woodside (47)          
           
(8) MONTEREY (52.5)          
           
(9) Leigh (52)          
           
(5) GILROY (56.5)          
           
(12) Westmont (50)          
           
(4) PIONEER (57)          
           
(13) King City (48.5)          
           
(6) BURLINGAME (54)          
           
(11) Saratoga (51.5)          
           
(3) HILLSDALE (57.5)          
           
(14) Lynbrook (48.5)          
           
(7) APTOS (54)          
           
(10) Sacred Heart Cathedral (52)          
           
(2) SOLEDAD (59)          
           
(15) Christopher (48)          


DIVISION III: Finally, the last 8 teams as ranked by enrollment are placed in Division III.

Half Moon Bay (981) and Terra Nova (910) are the highest enrollment schools in Division III.


If Sacred Heart Cathedral does not opt up, it would be a favorite in Division II. (Brandon Jew/Prep2Prep)

(1) ST. FRANCIS SCP (58.5)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. III Champ

(8) Alma Heights (37)

(4) PALMA (48)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

(5) Carmel (46)

(3) HALF MOON BAY (51)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

(6) Terra Nova (46)

(2) THE KING'S ACADEMY (56)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

(7) Thomas More (45)



As mentioned earlier, there are a total of 7 at-large teams included in the complete field of 48 CCS playoff teams. Here's a brief look at the last five teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out if the season ended now. This only includes teams that meet the .500 eligibility requirement.

At large (first 2): MOUNTAIN VIEW (54.5), CUPERTINO (53).



BVAL-MH Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
12-2-0
22-5-0
10-4-0
19-10-0
10-4-0
15-11-1
7-7-0
15-13-0
7-7-0
12-15-0
5-9-0
8-18-0
3-11-0
9-17-1
2-12-0
7-18-0
BVAL-ST Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
12-2-0
21-7-0
11-3-0
19-9-0
9-5-0
14-14-0
6-8-0
13-13-0
6-8-0
11-12-0
6-8-0
11-16-0
5-9-0
12-10-0
1-13-0
2-19-1
BVAL-WV Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
13-1-0
17-7-0
12-2-0
15-7-1
9-4-0
11-12-0
7-7-0
7-14-0
6-8-0
6-15-0
4-9-0
4-13-0
2-12-0
6-18-0
2-12-0
6-20-0
MBL-Gabilan Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
16-3-0
24-6-0
11-7-0
17-10-1
10-8-0
16-13-0
9-10-0
15-13-0
8-10-0
14-14-1
6-12-0
10-17-0
4-14-0
8-19-0
MBL-Pacific Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
15-3-0
17-8-0
13-5-0
18-10-0
11-7-0
14-13-0
10-8-0
10-13-0
7-11-0
8-15-0
6-12-0
10-16-0
1-17-0
3-18-0
MTAL-MT Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
16-2-0
24-6-0
14-4-0
19-8-0
14-5-0
18-11-0
11-7-0
12-15-0
10-8-0
13-9-0
9-9-0
12-14-0
9-9-1
9-15-1
5-13-0
7-18-0
2-16-0
2-16-0
0-17-1
0-19-1
PAL-Bay Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
11-3-0
21-7-0
10-4-0
19-8-0
10-4-0
17-12-0
7-7-0
14-12-0
7-7-0
12-14-0
6-8-0
11-16-0
3-11-0
7-17-0
2-12-0
4-22-0
PAL-Ocean Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
14-1-0
24-6-1
10-4-0
16-10-0
9-5-0
19-10-0
9-5-0
15-12-1
6-8-0
12-12-0
4-10-0
10-17-0
4-10-0
7-14-0
PAL-Lake Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-2-0
14-8-1
8-3-0
9-16-0
7-5-0
10-11-0
2-7-0
4-7-0
0-10-0
1-13-0
SCCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
12-0-0
22-6-0
8-4-0
21-9-0
8-4-0
18-9-0
5-7-0
7-17-0
4-8-0
7-18-0
2-10-0
11-17-0
SCVAL-DA Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
13-1-0
22-7-0
11-3-0
23-9-0
8-6-0
18-11-0
7-7-0
19-12-0
7-7-0
16-14-0
5-9-0
18-14-0
3-11-0
15-13-0
2-12-0
6-22-1
WCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
11-3-0
29-3-1
11-3-0
23-9-0
9-5-0
25-8-0
9-5-0
22-9-0
8-6-0
25-8-0
5-9-0
14-14-0
2-12-0
9-18-0
1-13-0
9-18-1