P2P Baseball CCS Playoff Projections
Salinas fell to No. 11 in Division I in the latest Prep2Prep playoff projections. (Brendan Jew/Prep2Prep)

Prep2Prep CCS Baseball Playoff Projections

UPDATED 4/25/17


Based on the latest information presented to Prep2Prep through games of April 24, we are releasing our projections for the 2017 Central Coast Section playoff tournaments. We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams that compete in the Central Coast Section, but it is possible that there are slight schedule variations for some teams.

These projections are based on our best available information; if you would like to correct a team's result, please contact Prep2Prep via email or tweet us @Prep2PrepSports. You can also leave comments on our Facebook page.

For more details on the CCS point system, please click here.

We have Alvarez edging out King City on a tiebreaker for the final at-large playoff spot.

A quick summary of how the teams are selected is below.

Here's a quick overview on the process: a total of 48 teams spread out over three enrollment-based divisions of 16 teams each qualify for the CCS Baseball Playoffs. Of the 48, 40 receive automatic bids based on their position in their league standings as follows: BVAL (8), PAL (6), SCVAL (6), MBL (6), WCAL (5), SCCAL (3), MTAL (3), WBAL (2) and PSAL (1).

The remaining eight at-large teams are selected based on a point system that awards teams based on results over the course of the last 22 games a team plays. One caveat: all league games must be included among the 22, so that if a team plays a league game that is not among its last 22 games, that league game is substituted in for the earliest played non-league game.

To be considered for an at-large berth, teams must have at least a .500 record in any one of the following: a) in league; b) overall; c) over the last 22 games that are included in the CCS point calculation.

Leagues within CCS are designated as "A" (highest), "B" and "C". Wins against "A" teams count for 3 points; wins against "B" teams count for 2.5; and wins against "C" teams count for 2. Strip off one point from those totals in cases of ties, and two points for losses to respectively designed "A", "B" and "C" teams.

Teams outside of CCS are considered "B" teams unless they achieve a winning percentage of .700 or greater; in which case, they are considered "A" teams.

Finally, teams are awarded 2 points for playing an "A" league champion, 1.5 points for playing a "B" league champion and 1 point for playing a "C" league champion. This only applies to games against CCS teams - there is no bonus for playing league champs outside of CCS.

There is also a CCS bylaw that states that teams only get credit for playing a divisional league champion twice during league play. So for teams that play each other three times during the regular-season round robin, we must disregard the bonus points for the third meeting against the prospective league champ. This affects the following leagues: BVAL-WV, MBL-Gabilan, MBL-Pacific, MTAL, PAL-Lake and SCVAL-EC.

Teams also receive 8 points for being an "A" league champion, 7 for being a "B" league champion and 6 for being a "C" league champion.

There is an Open Division tournament for the top teams in the section. League champs - including tied champs - of the six "A" divisions - BVAL-MH, MBL-Gabilan, PAL-Bay, SCCAL, SCVAL-DA and WCAL - are automatically entered into this tournament. The next highest CCS point totals qualify for the Open Division. Teams may also elect to opt into the Open Division right up until end of the season, so for our purposes, we will just assume the top point-getters.

Because the season is not over, we must make a few assumptions:

ASSUMPTION 1: points are calculated on the assumption that an individual team will lose the rest of its games. The bonus points for playing a league champion are included in the calculation. In other words, the point total you see represents the minimum point total for a given team.

ASSUMPTION 2: in calculating points awarded for playing league champions, points were split according to the number of teams currently tied for first place. For instance, per CCS rules, teams are awarded one point for playing a league champion; if a team played a team that is currently in a three-way tie for first, we credit the team 0.33 points. If two teams at the top of a league have not played the same number of games, we assume league champ based on points per game.

ASSUMPTION 3: the Open Division will be made up of the six "A" league champs and next 10 highest point totals; i.e., we will not attempt to predict which teams will opt up but if we receive confirmation from schools, we will reflect that in our projections.

ASSUMPTION 4: for out-of-section teams that we were unable to find accurate records, we assumed them to be "B" teams and not division champs.

ASSUMPTION 5: teams will apply for CCS and we will use league bylaws to determine order of finish as applicable. For instance if two at-large teams apply for CCS from the same league, some league's bylaws mandate that the team that finished higher in the league standings must get in first whereas other leagues rank at-large teams based on CCS points. We are assuming no teams will pull out of consideration. If we cannot determine a league's bylaws, we will assume they rank by order of CCS points.

ASSUMPTION 6: some leagues hold a postseason tournament to fill out their allotment of automatic qualifiers. In those instances, we assumed the team(s) with the highest CCS point totals will receive the automatic bid.

ASSUMPTION 7: by CCS rules, a team must have at least a .500 record in league, overall or in the 22 games under consideration for its CCS point total. In the case of league and overall records, we simply took the team's record as of this date; for the 22-game consideration, we looked at the record for the games within the 22 that have already been played.

NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.



OPEN DIVISION: Forty-eight teams qualify for the CCS playoffs. After the 16 teams are selected for the Open Division, the next 32 are placed into the playoff field based on enrollment; the top 16 enrollment schools in Division I and the next 16 in Division II.

There has been no change in the teams leading their respective "A" leagues and thus are in position to earn automatic bids into the Open Division - Willow Glen (BVAL-MH), San Benito (MBL-Gabilan), Carlmont (PAL-Bay), Soquel (SCCAL), Palo Alto (SCVAL-De Anza) and Serra (WCAL).

For the moment, we are not assuming any opt ups, though we would generally expect WCAL teams (St. Ignatius, Mitty) to at least consider the option. We had to move Milpitas up a spot to avoid a first-round matchup against league mate Palo Alto.


Serra continues to lead the WCAL and would earn an automatic berth to the Open Division playoffs. (Tyler Khan/Prep2Prep)

(1) PALO ALTO (66.5)          
           
(16) St. Francis (47.5)          
           
(8) BELLARMINE COLLEGE PREP (51)          
           
(9) Capuchino (50.5)          
           
(5) MOUNTAIN VIEW (53.5)          
           
(12) Leland (48.5)          
           
(4) WILLOW GLEN (53.5)          
           
(13) Palma (48.5)          
           
(6) SAN BENITO (53)          
           
(11) Soquel (50)          
           
(3) LOS GATOS (56)          
           
(14) Sacred Heart Cathedral (47.5)          
           
(7) LOS ALTOS (51.5)          
           
(10) Serra (50.5)          
           
(2) CARLMONT (56)          
           
(15) Milpitas (46.5)          



DIVISION I: After the 16 Open Division teams are selected, the next 16 teams by enrollment are placed in Division I.

The two smallest schools in Division I right now are St. Ignatius (1,482) and Soledad (1,464) - if things break differently, they could wind up in Division II.


Lincoln is projected as the No. 12 seed in Division I. (Connor Sochocki/Prep2Prep)

(1) WILCOX (46)          
           
(16) Santa Clara (28.5)          
           
(8) ARCHBISHOP MITTY (42)          
           
(9) Soledad (42)          
           
(5) VALLEY CHRISTIAN (43)          
           
(12) Lincoln (39.5)          
           
(4) SEQUOIA (43)          
           
(13) Alvarez (39)          
           
(6) PIONEER (42.5)          
           
(11) Salinas (41)          
           
(3) LEIGH (43.5)          
           
(14) Cupertino (39)          
           
(7) CHRISTOPHER (42)          
           
(10) St. Ignatius (41.5)          
           
(2) WESTMONT (46)          
           
(15) Alisal (38)          


DIVISION II: Finally, the remaining 16 teams as ranked by enrollment are placed in Division II.

Aptos (1,459) and Mt. Pleasant (1,430) are the highest enrollment schools in Division II so they could potentially wind up in Division I.


If Sacred Heart Cathedral does not opt up, it would be a top seed in Division II. (Brandon Jew/Prep2Prep)

(1) TERRA NOVA (44)          
           
(16) Gunderson (27)          
           
(8) MENLO SCHOOL (39.5)          
           
(9) El Camino (39)          
           
(5) APTOS (42)          
           
(12) Half Moon Bay (37.5)          
           
(4) LIVE OAK (42.5)          
           
(13) Greenfield (36)          
           
(6) PACIFIC GROVE (42)          
           
(11) San Lorenzo Valley (38)          
           
(3) SANTA CRUZ (43.5)          
           
(14) Mt. Pleasant (32.5)          
           
(7) ST. FRANCIS CCC (41)          
           
(10) Monte Vista Christian (39)          
           
(2) BURLINGAME (43.5)          
           
(15) Summit Prep (28)          


As mentioned earlier, there are a total of 8 at-large teams included in the complete field of 48 CCS playoff teams. Here's a brief look at the last five teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out if the season ended now. This only includes team that meet the .500 eligibility requirement.

At large (first 3): MILPITAS (46.5), WILCOX (46), APTOS (42).





BVAL-MH Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
8-2-0
18-4-0
7-2-0
14-5-2
7-2-0
14-6-0
6-4-0
15-7-0
6-4-0
13-10-0
3-7-0
6-14-0
2-8-0
11-11-0
0-10-0
6-16-0
BVAL-ST Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
8-3-0
10-6-0
7-3-0
12-9-0
7-3-0
11-11-0
6-3-0
8-12-0
5-6-0
6-13-0
2-6-0
6-11-0
2-7-0
5-16-0
2-8-0
6-16-0
BVAL-WV Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
14-2-0
14-6-0
11-2-0
13-4-0
12-4-0
13-7-0
10-6-0
10-8-0
7-9-0
7-11-0
5-10-0
5-14-0
1-14-0
2-17-0
1-14-0
2-18-0
MBL-Gabilan Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
12-1-0
16-5-0
11-2-0
18-3-0
8-6-0
12-9-0
6-8-1
12-10-1
6-9-0
10-10-0
3-9-1
6-14-1
1-12-0
5-15-0
MBL-Pacific Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-2-0
14-7-0
11-3-0
15-7-0
10-3-0
12-9-0
5-6-0
12-8-0
5-8-0
6-15-0
0-14-0
3-15-0
MTAL-MT Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
12-1-0
12-9-0
12-2-0
19-4-0
10-3-0
15-7-0
10-4-0
13-9-0
10-4-0
12-9-1
5-8-0
7-8-0
4-9-0
6-12-0
2-10-0
3-11-0
1-12-0
1-14-0
0-13-0
0-18-0
PAL-Bay Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
9-1-0
19-3-1
7-3-0
17-4-0
5-3-0
12-4-0
4-5-0
13-8-0
4-5-0
8-8-1
3-7-0
8-12-0
1-7-0
5-15-0
PAL-Ocean Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
8-1-0
13-8-1
6-3-0
12-9-1
4-3-1
9-11-1
4-4-0
11-8-2
3-6-0
11-9-0
PAL-Lake Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-0-0
15-2-1
8-3-0
9-10-0
5-4-0
7-7-0
5-8-0
9-8-0
4-8-0
9-10-0
0-9-0
0-16-0
SCCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
6-2-0
13-9-0
5-2-0
12-7-0
4-3-0
8-10-0
3-5-0
11-7-1
2-6-0
7-13-0
2-6-0
6-12-0
SCVAL-DA Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
13-1-0
21-4-0
8-6-0
17-8-1
8-6-0
16-9-1
8-6-0
15-12-0
6-8-0
15-10-1
6-8-0
13-13-0
4-10-0
7-16-1
3-11-0
7-18-0
WCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
7-3-0
13-7-0
8-4-0
15-8-0
7-4-0
18-5-0
6-4-1
13-9-1
3-8-1
14-9-1
3-8-0
11-13-0
2-9-0
8-13-1