P2P Baseball CCS Playoff Projections
Leland figures to be a clear-cut choice for an at-large bid in the Open Division playoffs. (Connor Sochocki/Prep2Prep)

Prep2Prep CCS Baseball Playoff Projections

UPDATED 5/13/17 (FINAL)


Based on the latest information presented to Prep2Prep through games of May 12 - the final day of the regular season - we are releasing our projections for the 2017 Central Coast Section playoff tournaments. We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams that compete in the Central Coast Section, but it is possible that there are slight schedule variations for some teams.

These projections are based on our best available information; if you would like to correct a team's result, please contact Prep2Prep via email or tweet us @Prep2PrepSports. You can also leave comments on our Facebook page.

For more details on the CCS point system, please click here.

In our final update, we removed all games for which we did not have a final score. This impacted several playoff teams' point total.

Lincoln dropped out of CCS consideration with a pair of losses to Willow Glen to wrap up the regular season. The Rams, meanwhile wound up tied for the BVAL-Mount Hamilton title with Leigh, which swept rival Branham. That puts Willow Glen and Leigh into the Open Division.

In the BVAL-Santa Teresa Division, Gunderson earned the second automatic bid with a win over Oak Grove.

Monte Vista Christian claimed the fifth automatic bid from the MBL-Gabilan with a win over Monterey Thursday despite a sub-.500 record both in league and overall.

Alisal won the MBL-Pacific title with a win over Alvarez on the final day of the season.

The MTAL regular season wound up in a four-way tie for second place. According to our calculations, Soledad and Greenfield would win the tiebreaker for the two automatic bids behind champion Pacific Grove.

We have learned that Pinewood will be the automatic representative from the PSAL by virtue of winning the PSAL tournament. Thomas More is a longshot for an at-large bid.

Terra Nova, which owns an automatic bid in the PAL-Bay, plays Woodside Saturday in a makeup game which will affect its CCS point total.

A quick summary of how the teams are selected is below.

Here's a quick overview on the process: a total of 48 teams spread out over three enrollment-based divisions of 16 teams each qualify for the CCS Baseball Playoffs. Of the 48, 40 receive automatic bids based on their position in their league standings as follows: BVAL (8), PAL (6), SCVAL (6), MBL (6), WCAL (5), SCCAL (3), MTAL (3), WBAL (2) and PSAL (1).

The remaining eight at-large teams are selected based on a point system that awards teams based on results over the course of the last 22 games a team plays. One caveat: all league games must be included among the 22, so that if a team plays a league game that is not among its last 22 games, that league game is substituted in for the earliest played non-league game.

To be considered for an at-large berth, teams must have at least a .500 record in any one of the following: a) in league; b) overall; c) over the last 22 games that are included in the CCS point calculation.

Leagues within CCS are designated as "A" (highest), "B" and "C". Wins against "A" teams count for 3 points; wins against "B" teams count for 2.5; and wins against "C" teams count for 2. Strip off one point from those totals in cases of ties, and two points for losses to respectively designed "A", "B" and "C" teams.

Teams outside of CCS are considered "B" teams unless they achieve a winning percentage of .700 or greater; in which case, they are considered "A" teams.

Finally, teams are awarded 2 points for playing an "A" league champion, 1.5 points for playing a "B" league champion and 1 point for playing a "C" league champion. This only applies to games against CCS teams - there is no bonus for playing league champs outside of CCS.

There is also a CCS bylaw that states that teams only get credit for playing a divisional league champion twice during league play. So for teams that play each other three times during the regular-season round robin, we must disregard the bonus points for the third meeting against the prospective league champ. This affects the following leagues: BVAL-WV, MBL-Gabilan, MBL-Pacific, MTAL, PAL-Lake and SCVAL-EC.

Teams also receive 8 points for being an "A" league champion, 7 for being a "B" league champion and 6 for being a "C" league champion.

There is an Open Division tournament for the top teams in the section. League champs - including tied champs - of the six "A" divisions - BVAL-MH, MBL-Gabilan, PAL-Bay, SCCAL, SCVAL-DA and WCAL - are automatically entered into this tournament. The next highest CCS point totals qualify for the Open Division. Teams may also elect to opt into the Open Division right up until end of the season, so for our purposes, we will just assume the top point-getters.

Because the season is not over, we must make a few assumptions:

ASSUMPTION 1: points are calculated on the assumption that an individual team will lose the rest of its games. The bonus points for playing a league champion are included in the calculation. In other words, the point total you see represents the minimum point total for a given team.

ASSUMPTION 2: in calculating points awarded for playing league champions, points were split according to the number of teams currently tied for first place. For instance, per CCS rules, teams are awarded one point for playing a league champion; if a team played a team that is currently in a three-way tie for first, we credit the team 0.33 points. If two teams at the top of a league have not played the same number of games, we assume league champ based on points per game.

ASSUMPTION 3: the Open Division will be made up of the six "A" league champs and next 10 highest point totals; i.e., we will not attempt to predict which teams will opt up but if we receive confirmation from schools, we will reflect that in our projections.

ASSUMPTION 4: for out-of-section teams that we were unable to find accurate records, we assumed them to be "B" teams and not division champs.

ASSUMPTION 5: teams will apply for CCS and we will use league bylaws to determine order of finish as applicable. For instance if two at-large teams apply for CCS from the same league, some league's bylaws mandate that the team that finished higher in the league standings must get in first whereas other leagues rank at-large teams based on CCS points. We are assuming no teams will pull out of consideration. If we cannot determine a league's bylaws, we will assume they rank by order of CCS points.

ASSUMPTION 6: some leagues hold a postseason tournament to fill out their allotment of automatic qualifiers. In those instances, we assumed the team(s) with the highest CCS point totals will receive the automatic bid.

ASSUMPTION 7: by CCS rules, a team must have at least a .500 record in league, overall or in the 22 games under consideration for its CCS point total. In the case of league and overall records, we simply took the team's record as of this date; for the 22-game consideration, we looked at the record for the games within the 22 that have already been played.

NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.



OPEN DIVISION: Forty-eight teams qualify for the CCS playoffs. After the 16 teams are selected for the Open Division, the next 32 are placed into the playoff field based on enrollment; the top 16 enrollment schools in Division I and the next 16 in Division II.

All teams tied for first in their respective "A" leagues earn automatic bids into the Open Division. The "A" division champs: Willow Glen/Leigh (BVAL-MH), San Benito (MBL-Gabilan), Carlmont (PAL-Bay), San Lorenzo Valley (SCCAL), Palo Alto (WCAL) and Valley Christian (WCAL).

For this projection, we did not assume any teams opting up to the Open Division playoffs. Sacred Heart Cathedral, Serra and Mitty are the teams most likely to do so, but we have yet to receive confirmation one way or the other.


Willow Glen will participate in the Open Division playoffs after finishing as co-champs with Leigh in the BVAL-MH. (Connor Sochocki/Prep2Prep)

(1) PALO ALTO (70.5)          
           
(16) San Lorenzo Valley (54.5)          
           
(8) VALLEY CHRISTIAN (59)          
           
(9) Capuchino (58.5)          
           
(5) SANTA CRUZ (60.5)          
           
(12) Los Gatos (58)          
           
(4) WILLOW GLEN (61.5)          
           
(13) St. Francis (57.5)          
           
(6) PALMA (60)          
           
(11) Westmont (58)          
           
(3) SAN BENITO (65.5)          
           
(14) Bellarmine College Prep (57)          
           
(7) LEIGH (59.5)          
           
(10) Leland (58.5)          
           
(2) CARLMONT (66)          
           
(15) Mountain View (54.5)          



DIVISION I: After the 16 Open Division teams are selected, the next 16 teams by enrollment are placed in Division I.

The two smallest schools in Division I right now are Soledad (1,464) and Aptos (1,459) - if things break differently, they could wind up in Division II.


If Serra does not opt up to the Open Division, it would be projected as a mid-level seed in Division I. (Tyler Khan/Prep2Prep)

(1) CHRISTOPHER (52)          
           
(16) Santa Clara (41.5)          
           
(8) ARCHBISHOP MITTY (49)          
           
(9) Cupertino (48.5)          
           
(5) ALVAREZ (49)          
           
(12) Wilcox (48)          
           
(4) PIONEER (50.5)          
           
(13) Milpitas (47.5)          
           
(6) SEQUOIA (49)          
           
(11) Serra (48)          
           
(3) LOS ALTOS (50.5)          
           
(14) Watsonville (47)          
           
(7) APTOS (49)          
           
(10) Soledad (48)          
           
(2) ALISAL (51.5)          
           
(15) Salinas (47)          


DIVISION II: Finally, the remaining 16 teams as ranked by enrollment are placed in Division II.

Mt. Pleasant (1,430) and Burlingame (1,382) are the highest enrollment schools in Division II so they could potentially wind up in Division I.


Burlingame is projected as the No. 8 seed in Division II. (Benjamin Rosenbert/Prep2Prep)

(1) SACRED HEART CATHEDRAL (53.5)          
           
(16) Pinewood (26)          
           
(8) BURLINGAME (48)          
           
(9) Monte Vista Christian (47)          
           
(5) LIVE OAK (51.5)          
           
(12) Mt. Pleasant (44.5)          
           
(4) TERRA NOVA (51.5)          
           
(13) Greenfield (42)          
           
(6) EL CAMINO (51)          
           
(11) Menlo School (45.5)          
           
(3) PACIFIC GROVE (52)          
           
(14) Half Moon Bay (41.5)          
           
(7) ST. FRANCIS CCC (50.5)          
           
(10) King City (47)          
           
(2) SOQUEL (52)          
           
(15) Gunderson (39)          


As mentioned earlier, there are a total of 8 at-large teams included in the complete field of 48 CCS playoff teams. Here's a brief look at the last five teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out if the season ended now. This only includes teams that meet the .500 eligibility requirement.






BVAL-MH Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
11-3-0
22-6-0
11-3-0
20-9-0
10-4-0
17-8-2
9-5-0
22-9-0
8-6-0
15-13-0
3-11-0
12-14-0
3-11-0
7-18-0
1-13-0
8-19-0
BVAL-ST Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
12-3-0
19-12-0
10-4-0
12-14-0
9-5-0
12-9-0
8-6-0
13-14-0
6-8-0
11-13-0
5-9-0
7-16-0
4-10-0
9-18-0
3-12-0
6-22-0
BVAL-WV Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
19-2-0
19-7-0
16-5-0
18-7-0
16-5-0
18-8-0
13-8-0
13-10-0
9-11-1
9-13-1
5-15-1
5-19-1
3-18-0
4-22-0
2-19-0
3-24-0
MBL-Gabilan Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
15-3-0
20-9-0
14-4-0
23-6-0
9-9-0
16-13-0
8-10-0
14-14-0
7-11-0
11-13-0
7-11-0
10-17-0
3-15-0
9-17-0
MBL-Pacific Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
15-3-0
19-10-0
14-4-0
18-9-0
14-4-0
18-10-0
9-9-0
16-11-0
6-12-0
7-20-0
5-13-0
6-19-0
0-18-0
3-19-0
MTAL-MT Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
16-2-0
16-12-0
14-5-0
17-11-0
13-5-0
20-8-0
13-5-0
18-10-0
13-5-0
15-11-1
9-9-0
11-12-0
7-11-0
9-11-0
3-15-0
3-18-0
3-16-0
4-17-0
0-19-0
0-24-0
PSAL-North Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
13-0-0
15-4-0
7-7-0
7-9-0
5-6-0
6-7-0
5-8-0
7-11-0
5-9-0
5-9-1
PSAL-South Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
12-1-0
20-4-0
9-3-0
13-7-0
1-10-0
1-11-0
1-13-0
2-15-0
PAL-Bay Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
12-2-0
22-5-1
9-5-0
19-7-0
8-6-0
16-9-0
7-7-0
17-11-0
7-7-0
14-13-1
6-8-0
10-16-1
5-9-0
12-15-0
2-12-0
7-20-0
PAL-Ocean Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-3-0
20-10-1
7-5-0
14-14-1
6-6-0
15-9-0
6-6-0
12-15-0
5-7-0
13-12-2
3-10-0
10-17-1
PAL-Lake Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
14-0-0
19-5-1
9-6-0
11-9-0
9-6-0
10-15-0
7-8-0
13-11-0
5-10-0
9-10-0
0-14-0
0-21-0
SCCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
9-3-0
12-11-0
8-4-0
19-10-0
8-4-0
16-12-0
6-6-0
14-14-0
5-7-0
14-12-1
3-9-0
8-16-0
3-9-0
8-19-0
SCVAL-DA Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
13-1-0
25-7-0
9-5-0
21-11-1
8-6-0
20-12-1
7-7-0
20-16-0
6-8-0
20-13-1
6-8-0
14-18-0
4-10-0
8-19-1
3-11-0
9-20-0
SCVAL-EC Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-5-0
18-8-0
9-6-0
12-12-2
8-7-0
12-14-0
7-8-0
12-13-1
6-9-0
11-16-0
5-10-0
9-18-0
WCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
9-4-1
22-11-1
9-5-0
21-9-0
9-5-0
21-10-0
8-6-0
17-14-0
5-9-0
14-15-0
4-9-1
17-13-1
2-12-0
10-17-1