P2P Baseball CCS Playoff Projections
Willow Glen is looking like a very high seed in Division I. (Macy Wagner/Prep2Prep)

Prep2Prep CCS Baseball Playoff Projections

UPDATED 5/14/16 3:30 PM


Based on the latest information presented to Prep2Prep through games of May 13, we are releasing our projections for the 2016 Central Coast Section playoff tournaments. We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams that compete in the Central Coast Section, but it is possible that there are slight schedule variations for some teams.

This is technically our final update but if new information comes along, we will run periodic updates throughout the day.

We discovered some inaccuracies in Los Altos' schedule. With the corrections, the Eagles now have 55.5 points and are among the top seeds in Division I.

The key question at Saturday's meeting will be which teams decide to opt to the Open Division. We will update the projections as we hear. At the moment, the projections reflect teams that have confirmed one way or the other.

Scotts Valley's surprising loss to Harbor knocks the Falcons out of contention. According to our numbers, The King's Academy is the beneficiary as the last team into the field. Soquel and Aptos finished tied for the third automatic bid in the SCCAL with Soquel earning the tiebreaker. The Knights would not have been eligible as an at-large team.

In the Open, there is a tie for the last spot between Bellarmine and Willow Glen. We believe Bellarmine will opt up, leaving Willow Glen to Division I. Mitty and Valley Christian have confirmed that they will opt up.

Palo Alto won the SCVAL tournament, earning a co-championship in the league and automatic berth into the Open Division playoffs. More importantly, the bonus points move Paly to the No. 1 seed in the Open according to our calculations. St. Lawrence defeated Summit Prep for the automatic bid from the PSAL. It is the final year of existence for the Santa Clara-based private school.

These projections are based on our best available information; if you would like to correct a team's results, please contact Prep2Prep via email or tweet us @Prep2PrepSports. You can also leave comments on our Facebook page.

For more details on the CCS point system, please click here.

Here's a quick overview on the process: a total of 48 teams spread out over three enrollment-based divisions of 16 teams each qualify for the CCS Baseball Playoffs. Of the 48, 40 receive automatic bids based on their position in their league standings as follows: BVAL (8), PAL (6), SCVAL (6), MBL (6), WCAL (5), SCCAL (3), MTAL (3), WBAL (2) and PSAL (1).

The remaining eight at-large teams are selected based on a point system that awards teams based on results over the course of the last 22 games a team plays. One caveat: all league games must be included among the 22, so that if a team plays a league game that is not among its last 22 games, that league game is substituted in for the earliest played non-league game.

To be considered for an at-large berth, teams must have at least a .500 record in any one of the following: a) in league; b) overall; c) over the last 22 games that are included in the CCS point calculation.

Leagues within CCS are designated as "A" (highest), "B" and "C". Wins against "A" teams count for 3 points; wins against "B" teams count for 2.5; and wins against "C" teams count for 2. Strip off one point from those totals in cases of ties, and two points for losses to respectively designed "A", "B" and "C" teams.

Teams outside of CCS are considered "B" teams unless they achieve a winning percentage of .700 or greater; in which case, they are considered "A" teams.

Finally, teams are awarded 2 points for playing an "A" league champion, 1.5 points for playing a "B" league champion and 1 point for playing a "C" league champion. This only applies to games against CCS teams - there is no bonus for playing league champs outside of CCS.

There is also a CCS bylaw that states that teams only get credit for playing a divisional league champion twice during league play. So for teams that play each other three times during the regular-season round robin, we must disregard the bonus points for the third meeting against the prospective league champ. This affects the following leagues: BVAL-WV, MBL-Gabilan, MBL-Pacific, PAL-Lake and SCVAL-EC.

Teams also receive 8 points for being an "A" league champion, 7 for being a "B" league champion and 6 for being a "C" league champion.

There is an Open Division tournament for the top teams in the section. League champs - including co-champs - of the six "A" divisions - BVAL-MH, MBL-Gabilan, PAL-Bay, SCCAL, SCVAL-DA and WCAL - are automatically entered into this tournament. The next highest CCS point totals qualify for the Open Division. Teams may also elect to opt into the Open Division right up until end of the season, so for our purposes, we will just assume the top point-getters.

Because the season is not over, we must make a few assumptions:

ASSUMPTION 1: points are calculated on the assumption that an individual team will lose the rest of its games. The bonus points for playing a league champion are included in the calculation. In other words, the point total you see represents the minimum point total for a given team.

ASSUMPTION 2: in calculating points awarded for playing league champions, points were split according to the number of teams currently tied for first place. For instance, per CCS rules, teams are awarded one point for playing a league champion; if a team played a team that is currently in a three-way tie for first, we credit the team 0.33 points. If two teams at the top of a league have not played the same number of games, we assume league champ based on points per game.

ASSUMPTION 3: the Open Division will be made up of the six "A" league champs and next 10 highest point totals; i.e., we will not attempt to predict which teams will opt up but if we receive confirmation from schools, we will reflect that in our projections.

ASSUMPTION 4: for out-of-section teams that we were unable to find accurate records, we assumed them to be "B" teams and not division champs.

ASSUMPTION 5: teams will apply for CCS and we will use league bylaws to determine order of finish as applicable. For instance if two at-large teams apply for CCS from the same league, some league's bylaws mandate that the team that finished higher in the league standings must get in first whereas other leagues rank at-large teams based on CCS points. We are assuming no teams will pull out of consideration. If we cannot determine a league's bylaws, we will assume they rank by order of CCS points.

ASSUMPTION 6: some leagues hold a postseason tournament to fill out their allotment of automatic qualifiers. In those instances, we assumed the team(s) with the highest CCS point totals will receive the automatic bid.

ASSUMPTION 7: by CCS rules, a team must have at least a .500 record in league, overall or in the 22 games under consideration for its CCS point total. In the case of league and overall records, we simply took the team's record as of this date; for the 22-game consideration, we looked at the record for the games within the 22 that have already been played.

NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.



OPEN DIVISION: Forty-eight teams qualify for the CCS playoffs. After the 16 teams are selected for the Open Division, the next 32 are placed into the playoff field based on enrollment; the top 16 enrollment schools in Division I and the next 16 in Division II.

By CCS bylaws, all teams involved in ties for first in "A" leagues are put into the Open Division. Ten of the 16 Open spots are taken by league champs at this point of the season.

Our sources tell us that Bellarmine, Mitty and Valley Christian will opt up to the Open, so we have included the Bells, Monarchs and Warriors in our latest projections.


Palo Alto and Riley Schoeben remain a top seed in the Open Division playoffs. (Christine Bertacini/Prep2Prep)

(1) PALO ALTO (65.5)          
           
(16) Valley Christian (45.5)          
           
(8) SAN BENITO (59)          
           
(9) North Salinas (59)          
           
(5) SANTA TERESA (61)          
           
(12) San Lorenzo Valley (56)          
           
(4) WESTMONT (62)          
           
(13) Bellarmine College Prep (55.5)          
           
(6) SERRA (60.5)          
           
(11) Los Gatos (57)          
           
(3) ST. FRANCIS (63)          
           
(14) Terra Nova (50.5)          
           
(7) CARLMONT (59.5)          
           
(10) St. Francis CCC (58)          
           
(2) PALMA (65)          
           
(15) Archbishop Mitty (49)          



DIVISION I: After the 16 Open Division teams are selected, the next 16 teams by enrollment are placed in Division I.

The smallest schools in Division I right now are Branham (1,512) and Gilroy (1,496).

The big mover from the last projection was Los Altos. A fix to the Eagles' schedule resulted in them vaulting up to the No. 3 seed.


Los Altos should get a first-round home game in Division I. (Macy Wagner/Prep2Prep)

(1) LELAND (56)          
           
(16) Oak Grove (45)          
           
(8) WOODSIDE (52.5)          
           
(9) Branham (52)          
           
(5) MOUNTAIN VIEW (54)          
           
(12) Lincoln (49)          
           
(4) WILCOX (55)          
           
(13) Gilroy (47)          
           
(6) SEQUOIA (53)          
           
(11) Leigh (51)          
           
(3) LOS ALTOS (55.5)          
           
(14) San Mateo (46.5)          
           
(7) CHRISTOPHER (52.5)          
           
(10) Milpitas (51)          
           
(2) WILLOW GLEN (55.5)          
           
(15) Monta Vista (46)          



DIVISION II: Finally, the remaining 16 teams as ranked by enrollment are placed in Division II.

Aptos (1,411) and Hillsdale (1,386) are the highest enrollment schools in Division II so they could potentially wind up in Division I.


Sacred Heart Prep is fighting for one of the top seeds in Division II. (Christine Bertacini/Prep2Prep)

(1) CARMEL (57.5)          
           
(16) St. Lawrence (32.5)          
           
(8) SACRED HEART CATHEDRAL (46.5)          
           
(9) Burlingame (46.5)          
           
(5) HILLSDALE (49.5)          
           
(12) King City (45)          
           
(4) MENLO SCHOOL (49.5)          
           
(13) Capuchino (45)          
           
(6) MONTE VISTA CHRISTIAN (47)          
           
(11) The King's Academy (45)          
           
(3) SACRED HEART PREP (51.5)          
           
(14) Soquel (41)          
           
(7) GUNDERSON (47)          
           
(10) Monterey (45)          
           
(2) APTOS (53)          
           
(15) Pacific Grove (43.5)          


As mentioned earlier, there are a total of 8 at-large teams included in the complete field of 48 CCS playoff teams. Here's a brief look at the at-large teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out if the season ended now. This only includes team that meet the .500 eligibility requirement.






{{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings
TEAM DIV PTS F A ALL F A CCS
{{standing.SchoolMediumName}} {{standing.DivisionWins}}-{{standing.DivisionLosses}}-{{standing.DivisionTies}} {{standing.DivisionPoints}} {{standing.DivisionPointsFor}} {{standing.DivisionPointsAgainst}} {{standing.OverallWins}}-{{standing.OverallLosses}}-{{standing.OverallTies}} {{standing.OverallPointsFor}} {{standing.OverallPointsAgainst}} {{standing.PlayoffPoints | number:2}}

{{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings
TEAM DIV PTS F A ALL F A CCS
{{standing.SchoolMediumName}} {{standing.DivisionWins}}-{{standing.DivisionLosses}}-{{standing.DivisionTies}} {{standing.DivisionPoints}} {{standing.DivisionPointsFor}} {{standing.DivisionPointsAgainst}} {{standing.OverallWins}}-{{standing.OverallLosses}}-{{standing.OverallTies}} {{standing.OverallPointsFor}} {{standing.OverallPointsAgainst}} {{standing.PlayoffPoints | number:2}}

{{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings
TEAM DIV PTS F A ALL F A CCS
{{standing.SchoolMediumName}} {{standing.DivisionWins}}-{{standing.DivisionLosses}}-{{standing.DivisionTies}} {{standing.DivisionPoints}} {{standing.DivisionPointsFor}} {{standing.DivisionPointsAgainst}} {{standing.OverallWins}}-{{standing.OverallLosses}}-{{standing.OverallTies}} {{standing.OverallPointsFor}} {{standing.OverallPointsAgainst}} {{standing.PlayoffPoints | number:2}}

{{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings
TEAM DIV PTS F A ALL F A CCS
{{standing.SchoolMediumName}} {{standing.DivisionWins}}-{{standing.DivisionLosses}}-{{standing.DivisionTies}} {{standing.DivisionPoints}} {{standing.DivisionPointsFor}} {{standing.DivisionPointsAgainst}} {{standing.OverallWins}}-{{standing.OverallLosses}}-{{standing.OverallTies}} {{standing.OverallPointsFor}} {{standing.OverallPointsAgainst}} {{standing.PlayoffPoints | number:2}}

{{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings
TEAM DIV PTS F A ALL F A CCS
{{standing.SchoolMediumName}} {{standing.DivisionWins}}-{{standing.DivisionLosses}}-{{standing.DivisionTies}} {{standing.DivisionPoints}} {{standing.DivisionPointsFor}} {{standing.DivisionPointsAgainst}} {{standing.OverallWins}}-{{standing.OverallLosses}}-{{standing.OverallTies}} {{standing.OverallPointsFor}} {{standing.OverallPointsAgainst}} {{standing.PlayoffPoints | number:2}}

{{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings
TEAM DIV PTS F A ALL F A CCS
{{standing.SchoolMediumName}} {{standing.DivisionWins}}-{{standing.DivisionLosses}}-{{standing.DivisionTies}} {{standing.DivisionPoints}} {{standing.DivisionPointsFor}} {{standing.DivisionPointsAgainst}} {{standing.OverallWins}}-{{standing.OverallLosses}}-{{standing.OverallTies}} {{standing.OverallPointsFor}} {{standing.OverallPointsAgainst}} {{standing.PlayoffPoints | number:2}}

{{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings
TEAM DIV PTS F A ALL F A CCS
{{standing.SchoolMediumName}} {{standing.DivisionWins}}-{{standing.DivisionLosses}}-{{standing.DivisionTies}} {{standing.DivisionPoints}} {{standing.DivisionPointsFor}} {{standing.DivisionPointsAgainst}} {{standing.OverallWins}}-{{standing.OverallLosses}}-{{standing.OverallTies}} {{standing.OverallPointsFor}} {{standing.OverallPointsAgainst}} {{standing.PlayoffPoints | number:2}}

{{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings
TEAM DIV PTS F A ALL F A CCS
{{standing.SchoolMediumName}} {{standing.DivisionWins}}-{{standing.DivisionLosses}}-{{standing.DivisionTies}} {{standing.DivisionPoints}} {{standing.DivisionPointsFor}} {{standing.DivisionPointsAgainst}} {{standing.OverallWins}}-{{standing.OverallLosses}}-{{standing.OverallTies}} {{standing.OverallPointsFor}} {{standing.OverallPointsAgainst}} {{standing.PlayoffPoints | number:2}}

{{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings
TEAM DIV PTS F A ALL F A CCS
{{standing.SchoolMediumName}} {{standing.DivisionWins}}-{{standing.DivisionLosses}}-{{standing.DivisionTies}} {{standing.DivisionPoints}} {{standing.DivisionPointsFor}} {{standing.DivisionPointsAgainst}} {{standing.OverallWins}}-{{standing.OverallLosses}}-{{standing.OverallTies}} {{standing.OverallPointsFor}} {{standing.OverallPointsAgainst}} {{standing.PlayoffPoints | number:2}}

{{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings
TEAM DIV PTS F A ALL F A CCS
{{standing.SchoolMediumName}} {{standing.DivisionWins}}-{{standing.DivisionLosses}}-{{standing.DivisionTies}} {{standing.DivisionPoints}} {{standing.DivisionPointsFor}} {{standing.DivisionPointsAgainst}} {{standing.OverallWins}}-{{standing.OverallLosses}}-{{standing.OverallTies}} {{standing.OverallPointsFor}} {{standing.OverallPointsAgainst}} {{standing.PlayoffPoints | number:2}}

{{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings
TEAM DIV PTS F A ALL F A CCS
{{standing.SchoolMediumName}} {{standing.DivisionWins}}-{{standing.DivisionLosses}}-{{standing.DivisionTies}} {{standing.DivisionPoints}} {{standing.DivisionPointsFor}} {{standing.DivisionPointsAgainst}} {{standing.OverallWins}}-{{standing.OverallLosses}}-{{standing.OverallTies}} {{standing.OverallPointsFor}} {{standing.OverallPointsAgainst}} {{standing.PlayoffPoints | number:2}}

{{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings {{standingsHeader.DivisionMediumName}} Standings
TEAM DIV PTS F A ALL F A CCS
{{standing.SchoolMediumName}} {{standing.DivisionWins}}-{{standing.DivisionLosses}}-{{standing.DivisionTies}} {{standing.DivisionPoints}} {{standing.DivisionPointsFor}} {{standing.DivisionPointsAgainst}} {{standing.OverallWins}}-{{standing.OverallLosses}}-{{standing.OverallTies}} {{standing.OverallPointsFor}} {{standing.OverallPointsAgainst}} {{standing.PlayoffPoints | number:2}}