Prep2Prep CCS Boys Soccer Playoff Projections
Here are the updated CCS Boys Soccer Playoff Projections based on the latest information available to us through the games of February 12.
are at the mercy of the accuracy of our schedules. We have done our best to accurately portray the schedules and results of the 100+ teams
that compete in the Central Coast Section, but there are bound to be some inaccuracies somewhere. These projections are based on our
best available information; if you would like to correct a team's result, please contact Prep2Prep
or tweet us @Prep2PrepSports
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Based on our numbers, there will be quite a race for the final few at-large spots, as we currently project Milpitas (41), Burlingame (40.5)
and Saratoga (40) as the final teams in, narrowly edging out Gilroy (39.5). Any "surprise" point totals could have a dramatic impact
on the overall seedings from Division I-III.
For the formula used to calculate CCS points, please click
. Keep in mind that only a team's final 18 games count
toward CCS point-total calculations. Also, a team must have at least a .500 record in league or overall to be considered. First, a few assumptions:
ASSUMPTION 1: points are calculated on the assumption that an individual team will lose the rest of its games. The bonus points for playing
a league champion are included in the calculation. In other words, the point total you see represents the minimum point total for a given team.
ASSUMPTION 2: in calculating points awarded for playing league champions, points were split according to the number of teams currently
tied for first place. For instance, per CCS rules, teams are awarded one point for playing a league champion; if a team played a team
that is currently in a three-way tie for first, we credit the team 0.33 points. If two teams at the top of a league have not played the
same number of games, we assume league champ based on points per game.
ASSUMPTION 3: in the first round, the first- and second-place team from the same league cannot face each other, so seedings are adjusted to
avoid such matchups.
ASSUMPTION 4: for out-of-section teams that we were unable to find accurate records, we assumed them to be "B" teams and not division champs.
ASSUMPTION 5: teams will apply for CCS and we will use league bylaws to determine order of finish as applicable. For instance if two at-large
teams apply for CCS from the same league, some league's bylaws mandate that the team that finished higher in the league standings must get in
first whereas other leagues rank at-large teams based on CCS points. We are assuming no teams will pull out of consideration.
NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.
DIVISION I: Thirty-nine teams qualify for the CCS playoffs, with the top 13 schools by enrollment placed in Division I.
In some cases, we had to switch teams to avoid league mates playing in the first round. Also, it is not permissible for the top two finishers
from the same league to be on the same side of the bracket. As a result, we had to change some of the seedings.
DIVISION II: After the 13 teams with the highest enrollment are placed in Division I, the next 13 teams by enrollment are
placed in Division II, which is expected to be an extremely strong bracket in 2013.
Willow Glen's current hot streak - three wins in a row and 5-0-2 in the last seven - has the Rams in position to possibly host a first-round
match according to our numbers. No swaps necessary as the seeds should hold.
DIVISION III: Finally, the remaining 13 teams as ranked by enrollment are placed in Division III. Based on our projections,
there doesn't figure to be much dropoff, if any, from Division I to Division II, but the same cannot be said for the difference between Division II
and Division III.
Branham captured the second and final automatic bid from the Blossom Valley Athletic League Santa Teresa Division to clear up the picture in Division
III. We had to shift some seeds around to make the brackets work.
As mentioned earlier, there are a total of 12 at-large teams included in the complete field of 39 CCS playoff teams. Here's a brief look at
the last five teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out if the season ended now.