P2P CCS Playoff Projections
St. Francis, with QB Mike Lauck, assured the No. 1 seed in D-II with its win over Serra. (Aakash Gupta/Prep2Prep)

Prep2Prep CCS Playoff Projections

UPDATED 11/10/2012 (FINAL)


One final update: With Sobrato defeating Piedmont Hills, Pioneer slips into the playoffs as the fourth and final automatic entrant from the BVAL-Mount Hamilton Division. And with that, there will be some shuffling between Division I and Division II. However, here is where things get interesting.

Right now, we have Santa Teresa and Archbishop Riordan projected to be in a dead heat at 20.5 points for the final at-large CCS playoff spot. Obviously we have to project based on what we expect to happen with regard to CCS points. But there are two potential catches when it comes to at-large teams. By the letter of the BVAL law, Piedmont Hills should be the fifth-place finisher and therefore the first at-large entrant from the league. However, if that were the case, the Pirates would not get in - and would take Santa Teresa down with them. If that were to occur, Riordan would get in as the final team, with Santa Clara still left out at 20 points.

A similar situation could arise in the WCAL, where by the letter of the law, Sacred Heart Cathedral, which finished above Riordan in the league standings, gets the first crack at the final at-large bid. However, at 19.5 points, the Fightin' Irish would not have enough points to get in.

But here's where a potential episode of [enter your favorite reality show here] could arise. If Piedmont Hills and Sacred Heart Cathedral both formally apply, then a potentially fascinating situation arises. We believe that Santa Clara would benefit and take the first of the two remaining at-large bids. Then we believe there would be a lottery among the teams with 19.5 points for the last spot: Piedmont Hills, Gunderson, Live Oak and Sacred Heart Cathedral (Gunderson beat Live Oak so we assume the Acorns would be eliminated from the lottery). Because Santa Teresa would not be allowed in without Piedmont Hills and the same for Riordan vis-a-vis Sacred Heart Cathedral, those two teams would be left out.

We're not saying that's what is going to happen, but at least theoretically, it seems possible. In any case, we will stick to the assumption of Riordan vs. Santa Teresa in a coin flip and then wait anxiously for the CCS meeting Sunday morning.

Finally, for these brackets, we've assumed Santa Teresa won the coin toss; if Riordan wins the coin toss, the following changes would take place:
1) Riordan would go into Division III as the No. 7 seed and would play No. 2 Sobrato.
2) Valley Christian would play Burlingame in the 3 vs. 6 matchup.
3) Saratoga would play Aptos in the 4 vs. 5 matchup.
4) Aragon would move to Division II and land in a tie for the No. 6 seed with South City. For simplicity sake, we'll assume Aragon as No. 7 playing No. 2 Los Gatos. Otherise, just swap Aragon and South City.

Here is what we have for the final seedings - for the formula used to calculate CCS points, please click here.

NOTE: CCS points are in parentheses and the projected home team is listed in CAPS.

OPEN DIVISION: By the new CCS rules, the five winners of the "A" and "A+" leagues are automatically placed in the Open Division. The remaining three teams in the Open bracket are comprised of the top three CCS point-getters among "A" and "A+" league teams. The top four division winners by CCS point total are awarded the top 4 seeds, so it is not possible for two teams from the same division to be seeded in the top 4. In the first round, teams from the same division cannot face each other, so seedings are adjusted to avoid such first-round matchups. For instance, if teams from the WCAL are seeded second and seventh, then the seventh-seeded team will drop down to No. 8 and face the No. 1 seed.


1 OAK GROVE (34)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Open Div. Champ

8 Archbishop Mitty (29.5)

4 PALO ALTO (28.33)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

5 Serra (31)

3 PALMA (29.5)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

6 St. Ignatius (30)

2 BELLARMINE COLLEGE PREP (33.5)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

7 Terra Nova (24.75)



Obviously, the big result this week was Terra Nova's victory over Half Moon Bay, locking up a CCS Open Division berth for the Tigers. Oak Grove held off a strong challenge from Leland to win the BVAL-Mount Hamilton Division outright. The Eagles gained the No. 1 seed by virtue of a win by McClymonds over Oakland Tech to capture the Oakland League title.

Palo Alto sealed the SCVAL title with a win over Santa Clara. Serra, Mitty and St. Ignatius are shoo-ins for the three at-large berths in the Open. This sets up several tasty matchups in the Open Division, highlighted by Serra traveling to Palo Alto and Mitty visiting Oak Grove.

DIVISION I: There are 26 automatic bids in CCS, with the remaining 14 bids awarded to the next highest CCS point totals. Once the 32 teams are established, they are ranked according to enrollment, with the top eight enrollments placed in Division I, the next eight in Division II and so on through Division IV.


1 MILPITAS (24)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. I Champ

8 Silver Creek (15.83)

4 SEQUOIA (21.16)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

5 San Benito (21)

3 ALISAL (22.5)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

6 Santa Teresa (20.5)

2 Salinas (23)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

7 FREMONT (19.16)




DIVISION II: The fact that Lincoln and San Jose eschew the CCS playoffs in order to keep their Thanksgiving Day Big Bone tradition alive figures to have a major impact on the brackets this year as both teams would have received a CCS berth. One of the primary beneficiaries will be Overfelt, which has clinched second place in the BVAL-West Valley "C" Division.


1 ST. FRANCIS (26.5)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. II Champ

8 Overfelt (13.83)

4 LELAND (23)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

5 Menlo-Atherton (22.5)

3 Wilcox (24.5)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

6 SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO (22.5)

2 Los Gatos (24.5)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

7 PIONEER (19)



A lot can change here based on what happens with the potential coin flip between Archbishop Riordan and Santa Teresa. So while we know these teams are in, the seedings are difficult to predict at this moment.

DIVISION III: Despite its underwhelming 2-5 record in the WCAL, Valley Christian figures to be the prohibitive favorite in Division III.


1 MONTEREY (25.5)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. III Champ

8 Soledad (18)

4 ARAGON (22.5)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

5 Saratoga (21.83)

3 VALLEY CHRISTIAN (23)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

6 Aptos (21)

2 SOBRATO (24.5)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

7 Burlingame (19.5)



If Riordan gets the final at-large bid, this bracket will scramble.

DIVISION IV: Division IV is looking wide open as several small schools are having outstanding seasons, led by Seaside, which is one of only three undefeated teams in CCS.


1 SEASIDE (28.5)

#1 vs. #8 Winner

Semifinals

Div. IV Champ

8 Capuchino (18.33)

4 MENLO SCHOOL (22.5)

#4 vs. #5 Winner

5 Monte Vista Christian (21.5)

3 CARMEL (25)

#3 vs. #6 Winner

Semifinals

6 Soquel (21)

2 SACRED HEART PREP (27.25)

#2 vs. #7 Winner

7 Pacific Grove (21)



Pacific Grove gets in despite the loss to Carmel. Capuchino has been on the fence between D-III and D-IV, but it looks like Justin Ewing will make his run at the CCS rushing record in Division IV. He is 50 yards away. For the purpose of this projection, we've assumed Piedmont Hills and Santa Teresa grabbed the last two spots, but if Pioneer gets in, Cap would slot into Division III. Then again, if Riordan wins the coin toss, the Crusaders would slide into D-III and bump Cap back to D-IV.

As mentioned earlier, there are a total of 14 at-large teams included in the field of 40 total CCS playoff teams. Here's a brief look at the last five teams that made it based on our CCS point calculations and the first five that would be left out if the season ended now.


First 5 out: Archbishop Riordan/Santa Teresa (20.5), Santa Clara (20), Gunderson (19.5), Live Oak (19.5), Piedmont Hills (19.5), Sacred Heart Cathedral (19.5)

Note: the tie between Riordan and Santa Teresa would necessitate a coin flip because there is no head-to-head nor common opponents.


WCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-1-0
11-2-0
9-3-0
10-4-0
8-3-0
9-3-0
8-3-0
8-5-0
6-4-0
8-4-0
1-8-0
3-8-0
SCVAL-DA Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
7-3-0
8-3-0
7-3-0
8-4-0
8-4-0
9-4-0
7-4-0
8-5-0
4-5-0
6-5-0
3-5-0
5-5-0
3-6-0
3-7-0
1-7-0
3-7-0
SCVAL-EC Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
7-2-0
8-3-0
6-2-0
7-3-0
5-3-0
7-3-0
5-3-0
7-3-0
3-5-0
4-6-0
1-7-0
3-7-0
0-9-0
0-10-0
BVAL-MH Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
9-1-0
10-1-0
6-3-0
6-5-0
6-4-0
8-4-0
4-4-0
5-5-0
3-5-0
4-6-0
3-6-0
4-6-0
3-6-0
4-7-0
2-7-0
3-7-0
BVAL-ST Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
8-1-0
9-1-0
6-2-0
7-3-0
5-4-0
5-5-0
5-5-0
5-6-0
4-4-0
6-4-0
3-5-0
4-6-0
1-7-0
1-9-0
0-8-0
1-9-0
BVAL-WV Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
8-1-0
9-1-0
6-4-0
6-5-0
4-4-0
4-6-0
3-6-0
3-7-0
2-6-0
2-7-0
1-7-0
1-9-0
0-8-0
0-10-0
MBL-Gabilan Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
8-3-0
9-3-0
7-3-0
8-3-0
7-4-0
8-5-0
6-4-0
7-5-0
2-6-0
2-8-0
2-6-0
2-8-0
0-8-0
0-10-0
MBL-Pacific Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-1-0
11-1-0
6-3-0
8-3-0
3-6-0
4-6-0
2-7-0
2-8-0
1-7-0
1-9-0
PAL-Bay Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-1-0
12-1-0
6-3-0
6-5-0
7-4-0
8-4-0
5-4-0
6-5-0
4-5-0
5-6-0
1-7-0
1-9-0
PAL-Ocean Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
8-3-0
10-3-0
7-3-0
9-3-0
3-5-0
3-7-0
1-7-0
1-9-0
PAL-Lake Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
6-3-0
6-5-0
5-3-0
5-5-0
4-4-0
5-5-0
3-5-0
3-6-1
2-6-0
2-7-0
0-8-0
1-9-0
SCCAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
10-1-0
10-3-0
7-3-0
9-3-0
4-4-0
5-5-0
2-6-0
3-7-0
2-6-0
2-8-0
1-7-0
1-9-0
MTAL Standings

TEAM
DIV
OVERALL
8-1-0
9-2-0
6-3-0
6-5-0
5-3-0
6-3-0
6-4-0
7-4-0
4-4-0
5-5-0
2-6-0
3-7-0
1-7-0
1-8-0
0-9-0
0-9-0