With a handful of games remaining this week to determine the final seedings for the North Coast Section playoffs, we give an updated version of what we believe things will look like for the top three divisions when the brackets are revealed this Sunday.
NORTH COAST SECTION DIVISION I
Qualified: Amador Valley, American, Castro Valley, College Park, Dougherty Valley, Foothill, Freedom, Heritage, James Logan, Liberty, Monte Vista, San Leandro
Still Alive:None
Eliminated: Antioch, Berkeley, California, Clayton Valley, Deer Valley, Granada, Mission San Jose, Pittsburg, San Ramon Valley, Santa Rosa
Outlook: It is certain at this point that no more than 12 teams can be eligible for the postseason, and all 12 are expected to apply for inclusion in the field. That means that the top four seeds will not have a first-round game, and will advance straight to the quarterfinals.
College Park just suffered a bad loss to Berean Christian in the DVAL Semifinals, but split with Liberty, winning the second game against the Lions by a large margin. San Leandro lost a competitive game to Bishop O’Dowd in the WACC semifinals, while American lacks a real quality win.
Heritage did just lose its final regular season game to Freedom to wind up as co-champs of the BVAL, but it is hard to see the seeding committee dropping the Patriots below the second seed. They are still a league champion, which Logan is not, and have head-to-head wins over three league champions in Castro Valley, Alhambra, and Archbishop Mitty.
Logan has a head-to-head win over Castro Valley, and I can’t imagine the Trojans dropping any further than the fourth seed due to their win over Amador Valley, plus the fact they are a league champion. The only real remaining question could be the placement of Monte Vista and Freedom. The Falcons now boast wins over Heritage, Castro Valley, and Dougherty Valley. But Monte Vista has battled tough in the EBAL, and has big quality wins over Newark Memorial and Sac-Joaquin Division II champion Benicia. A win today over San Ramon Valley would likely secure the sixth seed for the Mustangs.
Projected Seeds:
1. Amador Valley
2. Heritage
3. James Logan
4. Castro Valley
5. Foothill
6. Monte Vista
7. Freedom
8. Dougherty Valley
9. College Park
10. Liberty
11. San Leandro
12. American
Analysis: Amador Valley, Heritage, Logan, and Castro Valley would all receive first-round byes in this scenario. Meanwhile, the committee would be setting up some big-time rematches.
Freedom and Liberty are long-time district rivals who would be a big draw locally in the first round, while Dougherty Valley and College Park played a tense extra-inning game just a few weeks back.
The potential quarterfinal matchups in this scenario are even more intriguing. Freedom and Heritage split their regular-season games, with each team winning on the road. A playoff game between the league rivals would allow them to settle their season series on the diamond. Monte Vista led Logan 4-0 early in an eventual 7-4 loss to the Colts during non-league play.
NORTH COAST SECTION DIVISION II
Qualified: Alameda, Alhambra, Carondelet, Concord, Las Lomas, Livermore, Maria Carrillo, Montgomery, Mt. Eden, Newark Memorial, Northgate, Petaluma, Pinole Valley, Rancho Cotate, Redwood, San Lorenzo, Ukiah
Still Alive: Dublin
Eliminated: Arroyo, Casa Grande, Hayward, Kennedy-Fremont, Richmond, Washington, Windsor
Outlook: Dublin can become the 18th team to qualify for the postseason if the Gaels can beat Las Lomas today. That would mean at least two teams would be left on the outside when the field is announced.
Maria Carrillo is a question mark based on the Pumas 0-8 record outside of league play, while Mt. Eden finished at .500 overall, but only went 4-8 in league play. We’re going to leave the Pumas in the field for now, based on a win over Montgomery, and a pair of wins over Cardinal Newman.
Meanwhile, Carondelet qualifies based on its 3-3 record against Division II teams, and playing in the rugged EBAL should help both the Cougars and Livermore when it comes to seeding. Alameda’s win over Pinole Valley should help the Hornets in seeding, especially if they beat San Lorenzo for the WACC-Shoreline title today.
Concord lost to Pinole Valley during the regular season, and likely needs win today over Berean Christian today in the DVAL championship game to stay ahead of Rancho Cotate for the 10 seed. The Cougars and Ukiah also meet today for the NBL title after splitting their regular-season meetings. Some shakeup could occur if Rancho Cotate wins that game.
Northgate played tough in a DVAL semifinal loss to Concord, and appears to have a strong hold on the 12 seed over the remaining teams.
Projected Seeds:
1. Alhambra
2. Redwood
3. Petaluma
4. Newark Memorial
5. Livermore
6. Carondelet
7. Ukiah
8. Alameda
9. Pinole Valley
10. Concord
11. Rancho Cotate
12. Northgate
13. Montgomery
14. San Lorenzo
15. Las Lomas
16. Maria Carrillo
Analysis: Alhambra’s recent win over Petaluma, combined with Redwood’s loss to Marin Catholic, likely gives the Bulldogs the edge for the top seed, especially when considering strength of schedule. Alhambra does need to beat Dougherty Valley today to secure that top spot.
Newark Memorial is definitely a team that can make a run at the championship, and a quarterfinal game with Livermore would showcase two of the most dangerous teams in this field when they are hot. If the Cowboys can return to their early-season form, they are also capable.
Alameda, meanwhile, has early-season wins over Freedom and Alhambra, and has won six straight games, with the last five victories coming by double-digits. Despite Alhambra’s outstanding lineup, and Redwood’s top pitching, this could be a wide-open field for a team that gets hot at the right time.
NORTH COAST SECTION DIVISION III
Qualified: Albany, Analy, Bishop O'Dowd, Del Norte, El Cerrito, Encinal, Eureka, Hercules, Piner, San Marin, Sonoma Valley, Tamalpais
Still Alive: Acalanes, San Rafael
Eliminated: Campolindo, DeAnza, Drake, Elsie Allen, Miramonte, Mt, Diablo, Novato, Tennyson, Terra Linda, Ygnacio Valley
Outlook: Acalanes can qualify today with a win over Campolindo. The Dons beat the Cougars, 13-6, in an earlier matchup. San Rafael, meanwhile, has a more difficult task ahead. The Bulldogs must beat Redwood in the MCAL playoffs after being swept by the Giants during regular league play.
San Marin’s first-round league playoff loss to San Rafael will likely cost the Mustangs in the seedings. There was already going to be a debate about the second seed. Del Norte could move into that slot, though a strong run by Albany in the TCAL playoffs would more likely get the Cougars there.
Bishop O’Dowd is the likely top seed, even if it loses to Castro Valley in the WACC-Foothill title game. The only challenge to this would be league tournament titles for either Albany or Del Norte.
Encinal has a head-to-head win over Sonoma Valley, so the Jets should be placed ahead of the Dragons.
Projected Seeds:
1. Bishop O'Dowd
2. Albany
3. Del Norte
4. Analy
5. San Marin
6. Encinal
7. Sonoma Valley
8. Tamalpais
9. El Cerrito
10. Acalanes
11. Eureka
12. Piner
13. Hercules
Analysis: Bishop O’Dowd has the power in its lineup to create nightmares for all the pitching staffs in this field, plus the Dragons have experience in the circle with Alexis Scalzo. Albany’s Sydnie Hersh is capable of leading the Cougars towards a title run, and a semifinal matchup with O’Dowd could be a tense affair.
Del Norte is a bit of an unknown for the rest of the section. The Warriors only losses in league were to a very strong Fortuna team, while they also swept a non-league series from Shasta Cascade League champs Mt. Shasta.
An Analy versus San Marin quarterfinal would be the top game in that round, with the Mustangs’ Hayley Gazdik and Jenna Clark tasked with slowing down an Analy lineup that hit .366 during the regular season with nine home runs. Sophomore infielder Jayde Hill is a star in the making for the Tigers, batting .448 with four home runs.
