In the NCS playoffs, there’s plenty of predictable results. Carondelet and Dublin are rolling through Division II, while in Division III powerhouses Miramonte and Bishop O’Dowd are heading for a Finals collision.
In Division I, the top four teams have advanced but the margins are smaller and it’s a free-for-all to grab the title. In Divisions I-III, there’s only one seed lower than a four - No. 13 Novato in Division II (the Hornets upset Livermore in the first round).
DIVISION I
No. 4 Pittsburg (22-5) @ No. 1 Logan (24-4)
First round: Pittsburg def. No. 13 Foothill, 57-54; Logan def. No. 16 College Park, 66-58.
Quarterfinals: Pittsburg def. No. 5 Mission San Jose, 42-34; Logan def. No. 9 Deer Valley, 70-55.
Notable: For Pittsburg, Seuvahnia Kuka had 20 points, seven rebounds, and four assists, and Adorah Buggs added 18 points, in the first round; and Shaima Wilson tallied 14 points and 17 rebounds in the quarterfinal. For Logan, Mariah Elzy tallied 20 points and 10 rebounds, and Sophia Leon scored 15, in the quarterfinal.
Outlook: In early December, Logan beat the Pirates, 55-42. Elzy had 24 points and 11 rebounds in that game. Logan has performed better against Freedom and Deer Valley, but outside of that margins against common opponents are compatible. So are the records (Logan 6-2, Pittsburg 8-2).
No. 3 Clayton Valley Charter (24-6) @ No. 2 Berkeley (19-9)
First round: Clayton Valley def. No. 14 San Ramon Valley, 59-35; Berkeley def. No. 15 American, 57-43.
Quarterfinals: Clayton Valley def. No. 6 Santa Rosa, 67-63; Berkeley def. No. 7 Castro Valley, 52-44.
Notable: In the first round for Clayton Valley, Hailey Pascoe scored 25 points and Morgan Giacobazzi just missed a triple-double with 16 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists. In the quarterfinal, Pascoe led the way with 22 points. Berkeley’s Jaiamoni Welch-Coleman paced the Yellowjackets with 21 points and five assists in the quarterfinal.
Outlook: It’s a toss-up. Berkeley has at times looked more dominating than others; for instance against Alameda, the Yellowjackets won twice, once by 18 but once by only three. Clayton Valley beat the same team by 11. Each lost against Miramonte, Berkeley by 18 and Clayton Valley by 29. Each lost to a TCAL-Rock giant by about 20 (Berkeley to St. Mary’s, Clayton Valley to Salesian).
DIVISION II
No. 13 Novato (18-11) @ No. 1 Carondelet (26-2)
First round: Novato def. No. 4 Livermore, 53-44; Carondelet def. No. 16 Concord 84-31.
Quarterfinals: Novato def. No. 5 Pinole Valley, 48-42; Carondelet def. No. 8 Ukiah 71-32.
Notable: Katie Rathbun was one of three Cougars in double figures versus Concord, with 17 points; Marcella Hughes scored 19 in the quarterfinal.
Outlook: We have to believe Novato’s Cinderella run ends here. Carondelet defeated Livermore by 54 in one game and 24 in the other, not to mention the loads of playoff experience of the Cougars.
No. 3 Windsor (18-11) @ No. 2 Dublin (24-3)
First round: Windsor def. No. 14 Mt. Eden, 61-41; Dublin def. No. 15 Analy, 60-22.
Quarterfinals: Windsor def. No. 6 Alameda, 57-54; Dublin def. No. 7 Montgomery, 70-38.
Notable: Against Mt. Eden, Windsor’s Jessica Barbosa and Gabby Giddings combined for 36 points and 32 rebounds. In the quarterfinal, Barbosa scored 18, including a key basket in the final minute, and Hannah May 17. Dublin’s Milan Moses had 16 points in the first round, and Lesila Finau scored 18 points in the quarterfinal.
Outlook: Dublin is a virtual lock. The Gaels are fresh off a 32-point win over a team which Windsor beat three times, but by a combined total of 27. Also telling is that the Jaguars fell to Analy by nine.
DIVISION III
No. 4 Moreau Catholic (20-8) @ No. 1 Miramonte (26-2)
First round: Moreau Catholic def. No. 13 San Marin, 59-29; Miramonte def. No. 16 Del Norte, 80-33.
Quarterfinals: Moreau Catholic def. No. 5 Eureka, 49-33; Miramonte def. No. 8 Campolindo 89-36.
Notable: Uriah Howard had 14 points, 10 rebounds, and four blocks for Miramonte against Del Norte, while Jordan Bryant tallied 13 points and 10 boards. Alaysia Scott scored 17 for the Mariners against Eureka.
Outlook: Miramonte beat St. Mary’s by 10 and by 13; Moreau Catholic lost by 40.
No. 3 Acalanes (22-6) @ No. 2 Bishop O’Dowd (20-8)
First round: Acalanes def. No. 14 San Rafael 65-21; Bishop O’Dowd def. No. 15 Albany, 79-19.
Quarterfinals: Acalanes def. No. 11 Encinal, 78-61; Bishop O’Dowd def. No. 7 Hercules, 75-38.
Notable: Junior Aerial Chavarin had 18 points for the Dragons in the quarterfinal. Emma Godfrey and Brooke Panfili of Acalanes scored a combined 37 points in the opener; Panfili had 28 and Godfrey 18 in the quarterfinal.
Outlook: O’Dowd beat Berkeley by 24 and 16, Encinal lost to Berkeley by 25, and Acalanes defeated Encinal by 17. Put that together and you would have to consider O'Dowd a heavy favorite.
