Our second installment of the weekly playoff projections could still be considered ‘way-too-early’, but the picture gets a little clearer as time passes, especially as multiple leagues have started league play. This week, we continue the weekly process of identifying our projected seeds for the North Coast Section playoffs. Following section seeding criteria, especially head-to-head and common opponent results, we will rank teams accordingly each week, and discuss the criteria used and how these seeds may change in the near future.
We started the process last week by seeding the top eight teams in each division, and will now expand where it becomes evident there will be more teams qualified, up to 12 teams at this stage, rather than the full 16. We will expand this list to a full 16 by the end of the season as more results make it more logical to sort out all schools. We may include teams on the bubble in the rationale section for each division.
OPEN
Projected four teams:
1. De La Salle
2. Pittsburg
3. Monte Vista
4. Clayton Valley Charter
Rationale: De La Salle’s close game with Antioch could certainly leave room for a top seed argument if someone like Pittsburg were to go unbeaten, but we can’t fathom anyone other than the Spartans getting the top seed. The last time that happened was 2004, and De La Salle responded with a 41-point victory in the section championship game.
The other three spots seem destined for the champions in those respective leagues, so right now, we have the highest ranked teams in those spots. Monte Vista’s last-second win over California has the Mustangs in the driver’s seat in the EBAL, but the BVAL and DAL have yet to begin league play. The big thing with this bracket will be who gets seeded where, since a berth in the championship game opposite De La Salle will also mean a berth in the state bowl system. Just a single loss in league play could relegate a team to the four seed opposite the Spartans in the semifinals.
DIVISION I
Projected seeds:
1. Antioch
2. California
3. Freedom
4. Foothill
5. San Ramon Valley
6. Liberty
7. San Leandro
8. Heritage
9. Amador Valley
10. American
Rationale: We’re moving Antioch ahead of California in these projections due to the common opponent factor for playoff seedings. Even if Antioch does not win the BVAL (which would likely move it to the Open Division), the Panthers’ seven-point loss makes them a strong candidate for the top seed, unless California can play De La Salle closer than that. Of course, with Antioch and Freedom playing each other to open league play in two weeks, the top three here will get a bit neater looking in the coming weeks. It’s hard to imagine a Cal team with one last-second loss in league play dropping behind two teams from the BVAL.
Foothill has a win over San Ramon Valley, and appears likely to win at least six games this season if they continue improving like they have shown. San Leandro does have a win over Foothill, but that was in the season opener, and more recently, they have a loss to Liberty.
Liberty’s blowout loss to Concord has them behind both San Ramon Valley and Foothill, but everything can change in league play. SRV struggled with Livermore, but pulled out the win, so they stay where they were last week, as do the teams below them. The Heritage-Liberty game this week will have a big impact here.
Amador Valley makes the list this week after its big win over Granada. A loss to the Matadors could have spelled doom for the Dons, but now, they need to win just two of their final five games to become playoff-eligible. American has now won three in a row, and also finds itself in the position of needing just two wins in the last five games to become playoff-eligible.
The positive about being in this bracket will be the opportunity to win a section championship without having to get past De La Salle. The negative will be that there will be no opportunity to advance to a state bowl game.
DIVISION II
Projected seeds:
1. Campolindo
2. Concord
3. Redwood
4. Ukiah
5. Granada
6. Santa Rosa
7. Montgomery
8. Maria Carrillo
9. Windsor
10. Northgate
11. Mt. Eden
12. Livermore
Rationale: As of now, we don’t see any teams in this bracket who are making a case to get selected for the open division. Concord and Campolindo can each stake a claim to the top spot right now, and each have difficult roads ahead, leaving the door open to another team that could make a strong run in league play.
A loss to Clayton Valley in league play will not be enough to knock anyone out of the top spot, so Concord and Campolindo will likely get to settle the argument for the top seed head-to-head, though both will also have to deal with Miramonte. Granada still has to deal with the meat of its EBAL schedule, and its loss to Amador Valley could hurt in seeding, though a win or two against the top half of its league would likely elevate the Matadors to a top-four seed.
Windsor, Montgomery, Santa Rosa, Maria Carrillo, and Ukiah will all play each other in the North Bay League, along with each having to face Cardinal Newman and Rancho Cotate. Ukiah and Maria Carrillo made strong early statements with big wins last week, over Santa Rosa and Windsor, respectively.
Redwood might have the easiest path to a top four seed, and only has a loss to Marin Catholic. Carrillo’s win over Windsor certainly helps the Giants, who have a 42-21 win over Carrillo, and a win over Mt. Eden.
Northgate remains behind the Windsor team which gave the Broncos its only loss, while Mt. Eden is low right now simply due to strength of schedule. Games against Hayward, who is knocking on the door to this list, and Encinal will determine where the Monarchs end up. Livermore plays a difficult schedule, and has a win over Arroyo, which could eventually be what determines playoff eligibility for the Cowboys.
DIVISION III
Projected seeds:
1. Miramonte
2. Analy
3. Marin Catholic
4. Bishop O’Dowd
5. Kennedy-Fremont
6. Rancho Cotate
7. Encinal
8. Acalanes
9. El Cerrito
10. Alhambra
11. Eureka
12. De Anza
Rationale: Noticeably absent from this list right now is perennial post-season participant Saint Mary’s, up from Division IV this season. The Panthers have started 0-4, but a winning record in TCAL-Rock play will still get them eligible for the playoffs, and would also earn them a seed in the top 12, and likely the top eight.
Miramonte completed its non-league slate unbeaten, but has to deal with Clayton Valley, Concord, and Campolindo in league play. Lose all three, and they will likely drop to somewhere around the four seed. Win one, and they will be in the discussion for the top two seeds. Win two or more, and they will have a strong case for the top seed.
Analy has the loss to Cardinal Newman, but a big win over Rancho Cotate, which will play huge if the Cougars can make a strong run in the NBL. Marin Catholic and Analy both have the easiest paths to an unbeaten record in league play, but Marin Catholic has the damaging loss to St. Ignatius. The Wildcats do, however, have a big win over Menlo-Atherton, which is better than any win currently on O’Dowd’s resume, after the Dragons fell by 30 points to Freedom last week.
Kennedy-Fremont’s spot will likely depend on its performance against Moreau Catholic, while the same can be said for Rancho Cotate and its game later against Cardinal Newman, and a deep NBL schedule. Encinal is a favorite to win the WACC-Shoreline, and its win last week over Piedmont could pay dividends if any of the teams above it stumble a bit in league play.
Acalanes finds itself in a difficult league, and could be one of those teams that eventually qualifies based on its record against Division III competition. The Dons have a big win earlier over Alhambra, to go with last week’s win over De Anza. El Cerrito could leap Acalanes with strong play in the TCAL-Rock Division, while Alhambra will be in the mix for a DAL-Foothill title, but will struggle to move too far up with the blowout loss to Acalanes on the resume.
DIVISION IV
Projected seeds:
1. Cardinal Newman
2. Moreau Catholic
3. Piedmont
4. St. Bernard’s
5. Salesian
6. Hercules
7. Swett
8. Del Norte
9. Fortuna
10. San Marin
11. Kennedy-Richmond
12. Healdsburg
Rationale: With its only loss to St. Mary’s-Stockton, and a win over Analy, Cardinal Newman seems destined for the top seed, unless someone in the NBL can derail those plans. Moreau Catholic has played some solid competition, and has a head-to-head win over Piedmont, so an unbeaten run through the MVAL should get the Mariners a top-two seed.
Piedmont still has the difficult WACC-Foothill Division to navigate, but we have them third right now based on the win over Salesian, even after the seven-point loss to Division III Encinal. St. Bernard’s only loss was out of state, to a state-ranked Holy Trinity-Florida team, and they have a win over Division II Casa Grande.
If the Crusaders run the table, they should get a three or four seed in their first year up from Division V, barring upsets to the top two teams listed here. Right now, we have them below Piedmont due to strength of upcoming schedule, though the Crusaders’ strength of schedule could look better if Casa Grande can win a handful of NBL games.
Salesian started its push for the top four with a thrilling win over Berean Christian, and has the TCAL-Rock schedule in front of it. A strong run in league play should guarantee no lower than the five seed.
Hercules is unbeaten and a favorite in the TCAL-Stone Division, but strength of schedule will be an issue for the Titans. The same can be said for Swett, and its non-league schedule, but things will get tougher in TCAL-Rock Division play. A strong run there would certainly help the Warriors.
Del Norte and Fortuna will get to decide head-to-head who gets seeded higher in that argument, while strong play in the MCAL could lift San Marin into the top eight. Kennedy-Richmond is unbeaten right now, and among the favorites in the TCAL-Stone, but has yet to play anybody with a winning record.
Finally, the Healdsburg Greyhounds also have yet to beat anyone with a winning record, but the possibility of becoming playoff-eligible with two wins in the Sonoma County League is certainly realistic. They are also 2-0 against Division IV competition.
DIVISION V
Projected seeds:
1. Berean Christian
2. St. Patrick-St. Vincent
3. Fort Bragg
4. Middletown
5. Stellar Prep
6. Ferndale
7. Kelseyville
8. St. Helena
9. Clear Lake
10. St. Francis-Watsonville
11. California School for the Deaf
12. Arcata
Rationale: Berean Christian may have two losses, but it’s hard to fault the Eagles for playing up in divisions, with the losses coming by 10 to unbeaten Kennedy-Fremont, and on a late score to Salesian, after leading for most of the game. Both Berean Christian and SPSV will see an increase in their strength of schedule as they start league play, and for Berean. If the Bruins can post strong numbers in the TCAL-Rock Division, they could overtake the Eagles for the top seed.
Fort Bragg, meanwhile, is favored in the North Central League, but does not play the level of competition as the two teams above them. That being said, dropping down from Division IV could result in a top two seed for the Timberwolves as the season shakes out. Middletown will get a shot, however, as the Mustangs and Fort Bragg will get to settle the NCL on the field.
The only Division V team on Stellar Prep’s schedule is St. Francis-Watsonville, but the Thunder’s non-league win over Castro Valley certainly boosts their resume. Ferndale’s two losses are to higher division opponents, El Dorado-Placerville and Fortuna. If the Wildcats can be competitive in games against St. Bernard’s, that would certainly help their cause.
Kelseyville has a head-to-head win over St. Helena, but was routed by Middletown. Clear Lake and St. Francis each only have one loss, and Clear Lake’s loss was to Fort Bragg.
CSD is another one-loss team, but without much on its resume, while Arcata just got blown out by St. Bernard’s, but has some easier games ahead.
