NORTH COAST SECTION DIVISION I
Qualified: Amador Valley, Castro Valley, College Park, Dougherty Valley, Foothill, Freedom, Heritage, James Logan, Liberty, Monte Vista, San Leandro
Still Alive: American, Antioch, Berkeley, Granada, San Ramon Valley, Santa Rosa
Eliminated: California, Clayton Valley, Deer Valley, Mission San Jose, Pittsburg
Outlook: American seems the most likely of the group of teams still alive to qualify for the playoffs, as the Eagles need to win just one of their final four games to become eligible, and that stretch includes opportunities against Kennedy and Washington.
Granada and San Ramon Valley each have to win four of their final five games - in the rugged EBAL no less - in order to become eligible for the postseason. After falling to Cardinal Newman yesterday, Santa Rosa must beat both Ukiah and Montgomery next week to become eligible, two teams which the Panthers lost to earlier this season.
Antioch and Berkeley must also sweep their final two remaining games in order to qualify. For Antioch, that means it would need to beat Heritage, while Berkeley must beat Arroyo to start next week.
At this point, it would not be a surprise to see just 12 teams qualify for the postseason in Division I.
Projected Seeds:
1. Amador Valley
2. Heritage
3. Castro Valley
4. James Logan
5. Foothill
6. Monte Vista
7. Freedom
8. Dougherty Valley
9. College Park
10. Liberty
11. San Leandro
12. American
Analysis: With its win over Livermore last week, Amador Valley seems poised to grab the top seed if it wins out in the EBAL. Winning that rugged league, plus the win over a Cowboys team that beat Heritage twice, would seem to give the Dons the edge for the top seed.
Heritage has an earlier win over Castro Valley, and though the Trojans lost to Logan, they do have a win over Amador Valley and will likely be undefeated league champions. James Logan, meanwhile, does have the two losses to Newark, but also beat both Foothill and Monte Vista in non-league play.
A couple of intriguing matchups in this scenario would be a Dougherty Valley-College Park first-round rematch of a game won in extra innings by Dougherty Valley last week, along with a rivalry game between Freedom and Liberty, who square off in the regular season finale.
NORTH COAST SECTION DIVISION II
Qualified: Alameda, Alhambra, Carondelet, Concord, Livermore, Maria Carrillo, Mt. Eden, Newark Memorial, Northgate, Petaluma, Pinole Valley, Rancho Cotate, Redwood, San Lorenzo, Ukiah
Still Alive: Arroyo, Casa Grande, Dublin, Kennedy-Fremont, Las Lomas, Montgomery, Washington-Fremont
Eliminated: Hayward, Richmond, Windsor
Outlook: This division seems most likely to fill all of its 16 slots for the playoffs, with 15 teams already qualified, and a handful of others on the brink.
Montgomery needs to win just one of its final two games to meet criteria, and it faces Windsor and Santa Rosa, teams the Vikings defeated earlier this season. Casa Grande also must win one of its final two, but it won’t be easy against Cardinal Newman and Rancho Cotate.
Arroyo must beat both Berkeley and San Lorenzo next week to qualify, while Dublin must win one of its final three games in league play to meet criteria. That seems unlikely for the Gaels against Alhambra and Dougherty Valley, but plausible against a Las Lomas team that needs to win two of its last four games. The Knights will likely need to beat both Miramonte and Dublin to get qualified, since the other two games are against Alhambra and Dougherty Valley.
Kennedy needs to win three of its final five, including games against James Logan, Newark Memorial, and American, while Washington needs to win four of five, also in a stretch that includes the two leaders of the MVAL.
With multiple teams seemingly set to add to the number of teams qualified, it seems likely that at least one qualified team will be left out of the Division II field.
Projected Seeds:
1. Alhambra
2. Redwood
3. Petaluma
4. Newark Memorial
5. Livermore
6. Carondelet
7. Ukiah
8. Concord
9. Alameda
10. Rancho Cotate
11. Northgate
12. Montgomery
13. San Lorenzo
14. Maria Carrillo
15. Casa Grande
16. Las Lomas
Analysis:
Alhambra has the best set of victories of anyone in this field, especially after its win over Petaluma this past weekend. Redwood would have been tough to bypass as the top seed were it still undefeated, but the loss to Marin Catholic last Friday will likely move it down into the number 2 slot.
Las Lomas beat Dublin in their first meeting, so we are going with the Knights over the Gaels in our first set of predictions for the final spot. The reality is that the final game between those two teams could be a de facto playoff game. Mt. Eden has already qualified, but has the weakest resume of any team that could meet qualification.
Newark Memorial is poised to be an undefeated league champion, with two wins over James Logan, but it will be interesting to see if the Cougars' struggles outside the MVAL earlier this year have any consequence in its seeding.
An intriguing first round matchup in this scenario would be a rematch between Concord and Alameda, as they already split two earlier meetings. Ukiah and Rancho Cotate would be a similar scenario, as the Cougars provided Ukiah with its only loss in league play so far.
There will be plenty of great quarterfinal games in this field. One potential matchup with tremendous star power would be a Petaluma versus Carondelet game. Joelle Krist (Petaluma) and Taylor Blair (Carondelet) would be worth the price of admission for even the casual softball fan.
NORTH COAST SECTION DIVISION III
Qualified: Albany, Analy, Bishop O'Dowd, Del Norte, El Cerrito, Encinal, Eureka, Hercules, San Marin, Sonoma Valley, Tamalpais
Still Alive: Acalanes, Piner, San Rafael, Terra Linda
Eliminated: Campolindo, DeAnza, Drake, Elsie Allen, Miramonte, Mt, Diablo, Novato, Tennyson, Ygnacio Valley
Outlook: As in Division I, there will be some first-round byes in Division III, as there are only 15 teams still alive for postseason eligibility.
Acalanes needs to win two of its final three games in league play to make the playoffs, so that likely means beating both Miramonte and Campolindo, since the Dons' other remaining DFAL game is against Alhambra. Piner, meanwhile, needs to simply split its remaining two games in league play with Analy and Healdsburg to qualify for the field. The Prospectors defeated Healdsburg 12-2 earlier this season, so even if they fall to Analy, a spot in the Division III field seems likely.
Neither path is going to be easy for San Rafael or Terra Linda. San Rafael must win two if its final three games, but the schedule includes Justin-Siena, Tamalpais, and Redwood, all teams that beat the Bulldogs during the first time through league play. Meanwhile, Terra Linda finds itself in a must-win scenario against Tamalpais. The Trojans beat Tam 15-5 earlier this season, but must win again versus an improved Red Tailed Hawks team in order to even their overall record and qualify for the post-season.
Projected Seeds:
1. Bishop O'Dowd
2. San Marin
3. Albany
4. Del Norte
5. Analy
6. Encinal
7. Sonoma Valley
8. Tamalpais
9. El Cerrito
10. Eureka
11. Terra Linda
12. Acalanes
13. Piner
14. Hercules
Analysis: O'Dowd played well in losses to Castro Valley, and is undefeated against Division III opponents this season, so the Dragons would seem a lock for the top seed. There could be some argument between San Marin and Albany for the second seed, but the Mustangs have played exceptionally well in a difficult league, so they would get our nod right now.
