Our first installment of the North Coast Section boys’ basketball playoff projections breaks down which teams should be in the field and which teams are still fighting to get in. Following section seeding criteria, especially head-to-head and common opponent results, we have ranked the teams accordingly, and discussed the criteria used and how these seeds may change in the near future.
One disclaimer – there may be the possibility of other teams becoming eligible based on record against teams in their own division, but this would likely only affect one or two other teams. In the cases where there are 16 teams listed, there may be others on the bubble who may not currently be included based on what lies ahead on the schedule.
DIVISION I
Division I is once again a deep group, and it appears likely that at least one eligible team will be left on the outside looking in. Right now, in our current projections, that team would be Irvington, which is guaranteed to be playoff eligible, but lacks a quality win to make this field. The same fate could fell Mt. Eden and California.
Dublin is a clear choice for the top seed right now, with wins over James Logan and De La Salle. Logan, meanwhile, will likely be no worse than co-champions in the MVAL, where they are currently unbeaten after knocking off Moreau Catholic, and the Colts also boast a big non-league win over San Leandro. We have San Leandro listed ahead of De La Salle right now since the Pirates just beat Bishop O’Dowd and should finish tied with the Dragons for the WACC-Foothill crown.
De La Salle’s season sweep over Monte Vista has the Spartans in line for a top-four seed currently, with the Mustangs trailing closely, boosted by wins over Amador Valley and Dougherty Valley, plus the overtime loss to DLS. Liberty is one of the more difficult teams to seed right now because the Lions have an early loss to Dougherty Valley, but are also one game away from clinching the BVAL title. Being a league champion in a strong league should carry some weight, as would a 16-game winning streak if Liberty wins its final three regular season contests.
College Park’s overall record is impressive, and the non-league slate includes wins over Folsom and Oak Ridge, who beat De La Salle. But Liberty also beat Oak Ridge, and the Falcons are unlikely to be a league champion, with a pair of losses to Campolindo. Amador Valley and Dougherty Valley face off this Friday, with the winner moving ahead of the loser in our projections. If Dougherty Valley wins, it is possible that the Wildcats could move all the way ahead of Liberty, based on the non-league win over the Lions and a quality out-of-section win against Mitty, who is currently tied for first place in the WCAL.
Heritage has a win over Freedom, though the teams play again this Friday, meaning a Freedom victory could swap these seeds, or potentially drop the Patriots further. Freedom already has a win over Clayton Valley, who has wins over Pittsburg and Granada, plus a two-point loss to Amador Valley. Napa is unbeaten in the VVAL, but the Grizzlies have no quality wins in the section and could potentially drop further due to a couple questionable non-league losses.
Arroyo has head-to-head wins over Pittsburg and California, while Pittsburg can boast win against Heritage and California. Granada has wins over Heritage, Mt. Eden and California, but needs to win two of its final three games to be eligible, though it finishes with Foothill and Livermore.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Dublin
2. James Logan
3. San Leandro
4. De La Salle
5. Monte Vista
6. Liberty
7. College Park
8. Amador Valley
9. Dougherty Valley
10. Heritage
11. Freedom
12. Clayton Valley
13. Napa
14. Arroyo
15. Pittsburg
16. Granada
DIVISION II
It is almost take your pick for the top seed here, between Moreau Catholic and Bishop O’Dowd. Both teams only have losses to elite programs, and both could be co-champions of their leagues. We are listing O’Dowd at the top right now due to the fact that Moreau actually sits in second place in the MVAL right now, pending the rematch with James Logan.
Cardinal Newman is currently unbeaten in the NBL-Oak, and that includes a pair of wins over Santa Rosa, who beat the Cardinals in non-league play. Newark Memorial has exhibited its resume against elite competition, having two losses to James Logan by a combined six points to go with wins over St. Patrick-St. Vincent, Edison-Fresno, Santa Cruz and Mission San Jose.
San Lorenzo is unbeaten in the WACC-Shoreline and against Division II opponents, including a pair of key wins over Montgomery and Alameda. Redwood has a big season sweep over Tamalpais, and a key non-league win over Santa Rosa. Montgomery has a split with Tamalpais, but also a big win over Santa Rosa.
Tamalpais has big wins over Alameda, Acalanes and Miramonte, the latter of whom has a win over Las Lomas. Alameda has the one-point loss to Tamalpais, plus solid wins over St. Joseph Notre Dame, Arroyo and Capital Christian. Santa Rosa is lurking as well, with key wins over Napa and Acalanes. Las Lomas swept the season series against Northgate, who has wins over Bethel and Vallejo.
The last seed here could be determined by this Friday’s Benicia vs Alhambra game. If Benicia wins, the Panthers would be in automatically as league champions. If they lose, their overall record likely keeps them out altogether.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Bishop O’Dowd
2. Moreau Catholic
3. Cardinal Newman
4. Newark Memorial
5. San Lorenzo
6. Redwood
7. Montgomery
8. Tamalpais
9. Alameda
10. Santa Rosa
11. Las Lomas
12. Northgate
13. Bethel
14. Vallejo
15. Mission San Jose
16. Casa Grande
DIVISION III
The top four seeds should be pretty straightforward in the seeding. Salesian is the top seed from any division, while St. Pat’s has a head-to-head win over Campolindo. Campolindo should win the DAL-Foothill, and has a non-league win over Monte Vista, who beat St. Joe’s in overtime.
Albany is on a recent skid which could hurt the Cougars, but they do have a win over St. Pat’s and a close loss to Salesian, plus a decisive win over Drake. Drake has a win over Miramonte and a season sweep over San Marin. Piner has split the season series with San Marin and Montgomery, plus took two of three from Santa Rosa.
Rancho Cotate has clinched eligibility with its league record and has a win over Sonoma Valley, who beat Alhambra.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Salesian
2. St. Patrick-St. Vincent
3. Campolindo
4. St. Joseph Notre Dame
5. Albany
6. Drake
7. Miramonte
8. Piner
9. San Marin
10. Rancho Cotate
11. Sonoma Valley
12. Alhambra
DIVISION IV
Branson is a slam dunk for the top seed here, especially with a win over Dublin, while Fortuna has a pretty airtight case for number two, with a lone loss to Menlo-Atherton and a win over Amador Valley. Likewise, Saint Mary’s should be a shoo-in for the three spot.
Healdsburg has wins over Cardinal Newman, Middletown and Piner, but could fall below Piedmont, who beat a Ukiah team which split with Healdsburg, and also has wins over Alameda, Middletown and San Lorenzo. Marin Catholic’s overall record is fairly average, but a slew of quality victories should keep the Wildcats in the top six seeds. Lick-Wilmerding has not played the same strength of schedule, but does have a solid non-league win over Jefferson-Daly City among its 17 victories right now.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Branson
2. Fortuna
3. Saint Mary’s
4. Piedmont
5. Healdsburg
6. Marin Catholic
7. Lick-Wilmerding
8. Middletown
9. McKinleyville
10. Ygnacio Valley
11. Del Norte
12. Roseland Prep
13. Gateway
14. Fort Bragg
DIVISION V
We won’t be surprised to see Stuart Hall and University end up facing each other in the title game, but Clear Lake has certainly earned the two seed, as the Cardinals are unbeaten in the NCL and boast quality non-league victories, including a big win over Placer. University should certainly stay in the top three seeds, however.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Stuart Hall
2. Clear Lake
3. University
4. Sonoma Academy
5. Berean Christian
6. Head-Royce
7. Hoopa Valley
8. Athenian
9. College Prep
10. Marin Academy
11. Bentley
12. Cloverdale
13. St. Helena
14. International
15. The Bay School
16. Oakland Military
