As we work our way through the Central Coast Section football playoffs, which begin tonight, inevitably the conversation will double back to the age-old debate: should public schools be forced to compete with private schools? Understanding that this topic stirs up quite a lot of emotion, it is nonetheless interesting to examine.
And while we won’t attempt to debate that complex issue here, what we can do is offer some historical perspective. For instance, looking back over the past three CCS playoffs, private schools have gone 33-8 against public schools, including 29-4 in the last two seasons. If we focus just on the Open Division, private schools have gone 9-3 against public schools, including all four meetings in the first round in 2012.
However, a look back through CCS history paints an interesting picture. For instance, did you know that in the first four years of the CCS Open Division playoffs, which started in 2004, West Catholic Athletic League teams went just 5-7, including 0-3 in 2007? Oh yeah, and that in 2006, Oak Grove beat Bellarmine 77-25 in the first round of the Open Division playoffs?
Those of us with short memories look back at the last three seasons and note that private schools have won nine of the 15 CCS titles contested between 2010-12, including eight of the last 10. The two exceptions – 2011 Division II and 2012 Division I – occurred in large part because there were no private schools entered into those division playoffs.
It’s important to note that 2012 was the first year CCS “forced” teams to participate in the Open Division by getting rid of the “opt up” process. Prior to 2012, schools notified CCS of their intent to participate in the Open Division and the top eight CCS point-getters among the applicants were selected. If fewer than eight schools applied, the bracket was filled with the teams with the most CCS power points.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the first-round matchups pitting public vs. private schools and assess the public school’s chances of advancing in each case:
TERRA NOVA VS. VALLEY CHRISTIAN
COMMENT: While it’s true that Terra Nova has been blown out in its last two trips to the Open Division – losing to Bellarmine both times, 56-12 in 2011 and 33-14 in 2012 - this is a much different Tigers squad. Not only did Terra Nova finish undefeated – the Tigers went a combined 16-4 in ’11 and ’12 – it did so against a much improved PAL-Bay Division that features legitimate CCS title contenders Menlo-Atherton (Division II), Sacred Heart Prep (Division IV) and Menlo (Division IV). And they did so in convincing fashion, defeating those teams by an average of 21.3 points per game, not to mention a 17-point win over St. Ignatius and a 41-point win over Open Division entrant Pioneer.
CHANCES: 60 percent
WILCOX VS. BELLARMINE
COMMENT: This has the makings of an absolutely fascinating matchup. Bellarmine has been extremely successful in close games the past few seasons and this one figures to be decided in the fourth quarter. Playing in the WCAL against the likes of Valley Christian and Serra, the Bells should be familiar with run-dominant offenses comprised of outstanding athletes similar to what Wilcox possesses in Delshawn Mitchell, Kenny Dipko and Sione Finefeuiaki. But then again Bellarmine lost by double digits to both of those teams.
CHANCES: 49 percent
MONTEREY VS. MENLO
COMMENT: Obviously the status of Menlo star quarterback Jack Heneghan (shoulder) will have a huge bearing on the result of this game. The Knights were knocked around by Menlo-Atherton, 49-14, after Heneghan went down early in that game, and he missed Menlo’s 10-3 loss to rival Sacred Heart Prep. The Toreadores are a major threat either way, but if Heneghan is able to play effectively, those odds go way down.
CHANCES: 30 percent (w/Heneghan); 45 percent (without)
SEASIDE VS. SACRED HEART PREP
COMMENT: Seaside has a storied CCS playoff history, so this would hardly qualify as a major upset, but the Gators have been extremely tough the past couple of seasons, especially on the defensive side of the ball. SHP has allowed more than 20 points just twice in the last two years, compiling a 21-2 record in that stretch.
CHANCES: 35 percent
CHRISTOPHER VS. ST. IGNATIUS
COMMENT: We have only half-jokingly referred to St. Ignatius as the best 2-8 team in the nation, but that declaration is probably not far from the truth. The fact of the matter is that despite their record, the Wildcats are one of the top teams in the Bay Area period and get a chance to show it in a watered-down Division III field. Christopher is a solid team that can run it (senior RB Rayshon Mills) and throw it (senior QB Sterling Montgomery), but the Cougars did only finish third in the lower division of the strong Monterey Bay League.
CHANCES: 30 percent
PIONEER VS. SERRA
COMMENT: The Mustangs absolutely have to be commended for bouncing back from a disappointing 33-28 loss to Leland – one that saw them nearly rally from a 26-point deficit with a 21-0 fourth quarter – to win their final games and capture the BVAL-Mount Hamilton title. But if Pioneer’s 56-15 loss to Terra Nova is any indication, the game against Serra may ultimately show that it was a bit of a down year for the BVAL-MH.
CHANCES: 10 percent
ANDREW HILL VS. ST. FRANCIS
COMMENT: It has been a great ride for the Falcons, who have bounced back from three disappointing seasons in a row to post a perfect 7-0 mark in the BVAL-West Valley Division. But beating the likes of Branham, Prospect and James Lick won’t prepare the Falcons for what they are up against at St. Francis.
CHANCES: 1 percent