Our second installment of the Central Coast Section boys basketball playoff projections breaks down which teams should be in the field and which teams are fighting to get off the bubble, along with what they need to do in order to become eligible or gain a higher seed. Following section seeding criteria, we have seeded the teams accordingly, and discussed the criteria used and how these seeds may change in the near future.
OPEN DIVISION
If the season ended today, we believe the Open Division field would include Palo Alto and Sequoia. Piedmont Hills has only two losses, but one of those is to Sequoia and the other is to Leland, while the Cherokees own a win over Serra.
Speaking of the Padres, they’re currently in the field as the fifth team from the WCAL. As things now stand, the fifth-place WCAL team will be fighting with Mills for the last spot, though Mills will play Sequoia on February 13 and the teams could meet again in the PAL Tournament. For both Mills and Sequoia to make the field would be highly unlikely. If Mills was to win the PAL, the debate for the last spot among the three Division I teams would get even more complicated. In that scenario, it would be possible for just Bellarmine and one other Division I team, likely Palo Alto, to make the field.
Although the teams outside of the WCAL may be stronger than any Open Division group before, the seeding has been ordered as such to avoid league matchups for the top two WCAL teams, as the committee chose to do last year. It should be remembered that seeding is organized on more premises than just ranking the teams in order of perceived strength and resume.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Bellarmine
2. Menlo
3. St. Francis
4. St. Ignatius
5. Mitty
6. Palo Alto
7. Serra
8. Sequoia
DIVISION I
The CCS has 24 teams in Division I, and it appears that 21 of them will be eligible for playoff selection. Even with three teams going to the Open Division, that leaves 18 teams for 16 spots. Homestead has a tough road to qualification, so that may account for one of the two, but a qualified team will likely be left out of the field. As of now, that team is Fremont.
Whichever of the three of Palo Alto, Piedmont Hills and Sequoia gets left out of the Open Division is almost certainly going to grab the top spot in the Division I field, with Los Gatos as a very likely second seed.
Though Salinas crushed Alisal, the Trojans currently have the upper hand in the MBL Gabilan standings, meaning they would have to be seeded ahead of the Cowboys. In fact, the two are currently projected as a potential quarterfinal matchup.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Piedmont Hills
2. Los Gatos
3. Alisal
4. Menlo-Atherton
5. Los Altos
6. Salinas
7. Cupertino
8. Santa Clara
9. Evergreen Valley
10. Santa Teresa
11. Milpitas
12. Alvarez
Carlmont (vs. Evergreen Valley), Independence (vs. Alvarez), North Salinas (vs. Santa Teresa), Silver Creek (vs. Milpitas)
DIVISION II
As of now, Valley Christian has to be thrilled with the way the Division II picture looks. Mitty and Serra are both projected as Open Division teams, leaving the Warriors as the only WCAL team in the Division II field. That does mean only the winner would reach the State Tournament. Last year, that team was Mountain View.
Past Valley Christian (and any other WCAL teams that don’t end up in the Open field), the Division II landscape is as wide-open as it gets. Seeding in order of league finish will be a huge element here, with seven BVAL teams, four SCVAL and three from the PAL. How the committee perceives the strength of each of these leagues will play a gigantic role in seeding, and league standings will change projections in the coming weeks.
It should be noted that when the committee seeds teams, only one team from a league can be up for seeding at each time. Teams have to be seeded in order of league finish, but in a power league, a champion of a lower division can be placed ahead of a team in a higher division. Last year, that was the case for Mountain View, the SCVAL El Camino champion. While current projections don’t have a team from the El Camino or BVAL Santa Teresa with a compelling enough, the possibility exists and could come into play down the road.
The bulk of the changes in the projections over the past week are a direct result of Aragon’s win over San Mateo, which now allows the Dons to surpass the other PAL South teams. Should the Dons continue to climb, cracking the top four would be a possibility. Additionally, Hill is currently projected in as a 16th team.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Valley Christian
2. Leigh
3. Willow Glen
4. Mountain View
5. Aragon
6. Leland
7. San Mateo
8. Branham
9. Pioneer
10. Wilcox
11. Gunn
12. Woodside
Christopher (vs. Pioneer), Hill (vs. Wilcox), Lynbrook (vs. Woodside), Overfelt (vs. Gunn)
DIVISION III
At the moment, St. Ignatius is the only Division III team in going to the Open Division, making the rest of the Division III field extremely top-heavy. Of the three Open candidates that are currently not projected in (Mills, Riordan and Sacred Heart Cathedral), up to two of them could end up being selected.
The order of the top four seeds will be a subject of great discussion. At the moment, Sacred Heart Cathedral has the top spot by virtue of WCAL tiebreakers. Though SHC and Riordan split head-to-head meetings, the Fightin’ Irish have wins over St. Ignatius and Mitty. The loss to Marin Catholic is the only impediment to keeping Mills out of the top spot for now. Though the Vikings have not lost in PAL play and own a solid win over Menlo-Atherton, they lack wins of the magnitude that some of their peers have.
Picking which teams are in the top six is pretty clear, but after that, it’s anyone’s game. The field is currently set to house a full 16 teams, with Pajaro Valley qualifying by picking up a fifth and sixth league win last week.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Sacred Heart Cathedral
2. Mills
3. Riordan
4. Monterey
5. Aptos
6. Soquel
7. Hillsdale
8. Sobrato
9. Saratoga
10. Prospect
11. Soledad
12. Capuchino
Del Mar (vs. Capuchino), Live Oak (vs. Saratoga), North Monterey County (vs. Prospect), Pajaro Valley (vs. Soledad)
DIVISION IV
Jefferson’s success since transfers Marquez Costiniano and J.J. Cruz became eligible at the start of January should have much greater bearing on the Grizzlies’ seeding than an up-and-down December, which shapes the entire Division IV field. There are a handful of teams that have completely shifted gears since league play started, such as Sacred Heart Prep catching fire and Scotts Valley hitting a major slump.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. Half Moon Bay
2. Jefferson
3. Santa Cruz
4. Carmel
5. Pacific Grove
6. Palma
7. Sacred Heart Prep
8. Monte Vista Christian
9. King’s Academy
10. Terra Nova
11. Harker
12. Seaside
Gonzales (vs. Harker), King City (vs. Terra Nova), Marina (vs. King’s Academy), Scotts Valley (vs. Seaside)
DIVISION V
The biggest obstacle to projecting Division V is the number of teams that fail to post scores online. For those teams that neglect to do so, we strongly urge you to change those habits. Send your scores in to us here at Prep2Prep and post them on MaxPreps.
There’s a clear top five here, but the order could change. Tuesday’s game between Pinewood and Woodside Priory will be critical.
With the PSAL’s heavy influence on Division V, league standings and the results of the league tournament will have a huge role in shaping the bracket.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. St. Francis SCP
2. Pinewood
3. Woodside Priory
4. Eastside College Prep
5. Alma Heights
6. Stevenson
7. Mountain View Academy
8. Nueva
9. Oakwood
10. More
11. North Valley Baptist
12. University Prep Academy
Kehillah Jewish (vs. University Prep Academy), KIPP San Jose (vs. Oakwood), Summit Prep (vs. More), Summit Shasta (vs. Nueva)
