Regional play is wrapping up and as the stretch run approaches games are becoming increasingly more impactful in the rankings. Below is the latest edition of the state playoff matchups as of Oct. 18 for Divisions 6A through 4A.
6A DIVISION
It’s interesting that despite all of the fluctuation behind No. 1 Mountain Pointe, the one team that has remained in its slot since the Sept. 27 initial rankings is Skyline at No. 5. They remain within a 0.11 rating points away from No. 4, but seem a virtual lock to stay within 4-6 over the next two weeks. It may also be destined that Mountain View and Westview will meet. They are within percentage points of one another, but are well behind No. 7 Desert Ridge and well ahead of No. 10 Red Mountain. Over the final two weeks of the regular season, they may be simply playing to decide who will host their 8-9 matchup.
No. 1 Mountain Pointe (8-0) vs. No. 16 Corona del Sol (4-4)
No. 2 Chandler (6-2) vs. No. 15 Horizon (6-2)
No. 3 Perry (7-1) vs. No. 14 Valley Vista (5-3)
No. 4 Hamilton (6-2) vs. No. 13 Pinnacle (4-5)
No. 5 Skyline (7-1) vs. No. 12 Tucson Magnet (4-4)
No. 6 Brophy Prep (6-2) vs. No. 11 Desert Vista (4-4)
No. 7 Desert Ridge (6-2) vs. No. 10 Red Mountain (5-3)
No. 8 Mesa Mountain View (5-3) vs. No. 9 Westview (6-2)
5A DIVISION
It’s a real top-heavy division, especially seeds 1 through 6. If Centennial cannot get higher than that No. 6 spot, though, it could make things pretty interesting. The defending Division I champions could theoretically be forced to beat a one-loss Kellis team, a one-loss Queen Creek team, and then back-to-back undefeated squads to repeat as champions.
No. 1 Desert Edge (8-0) vs. No. 16 Deer Valley (4-4)
No. 2 Cienega (8-0) vs. No. 15 Sunnyslope (5-3)
No. 3 Queen Creek (7-1) vs. No. 14 Flowing Wells (4-4)
No. 4 Ironwood Ridge (7-1) vs. No. 13 Liberty (6-2)
No. 5 Williams Field (8-0) vs. No. 12 Campo Verde (6-2)
No. 6 Centennial (7-1) vs. No. 11 Kellis (7-1)
No. 7 Marana (6-2) vs. No. 10 Desert View (7-1)
No. 8 Mesquite (6-2) vs. No. 9 Mountain View Marana (6-2)
4A DIVISION
At this point there is a true race to get into the No. 2 or 3 spots: partly, to gain one of the division’s highest seeds, but also to delay a matchup with Saguaro as long as possible. For the first time, HIgley has vaulted into one of those spots, but a win over Salpointe Catholic this week by Catalina Foothills could theoretically change that. That 6-11 game between Salpointe and Dysart, though, would be pretty sweet if it stuck as the opening round tilt.
No. 1 Saguaro (8-0) vs. No. 16 Casa Grande (4-4)
No. 2 Sunrise Mountain (7-1) vs. No. 15 Buckeye Union (6-2)
No. 3 Higley (7-1) vs. No. 14 St. Mary’s (3-5)
No. 4 Catalina Foothills (7-1) vs. No. 13 Mingus Union (5-3)
No. 5 Marcos de Niza (6-2) vs. No. 12 Cactus Shadows (5-3)
No. 6 Salpointe Catholic (6-2) vs. No. 11 Dysart (7-1)
No. 7 Cactus (4-4) vs. No. 10 Bradshaw Mountain (6-2)
No. 8 Peoria (5-3) vs. No. 9 Canyon del Oro (5-3)
QUALIFICATIONS
The seeds, ranking each school in each division, are based on an algorithm utilizing statistical mathematics found in the 2005 research paper by Roy Bethel entitled: “A Solution to the Unequal Strength of Schedule Problem.” MaxPreps developed the algorithm for high school sports nationwide and the state tweaked it to be “retrodictive,” meaning it focuses solely on games in the past and does not attempt to predict the results for games remaining on the schedule. Each team is assigned a rating value, which then translates to the playoff seed.
Football playoffs begin Friday, Nov. 4 and are played within four rounds of a single elimination, 16-team bracket in Divisions 6A to 2A. In order to qualify, teams must have scheduled a minimum of eight games and the top team in each region is given an automatic bid. Note: The automatic bid in the 6A Southern will be the winner of the No. 1 Tucson division team, which was clinched last week by Tucson Magnet, vs. the No. 1 Yuma division team, which will be Cibola after their head-to-head win over Kofa on Oct. 14. The state tournament bracket will be seeded according to overall ranking of the 16 teams.
